अFunda Observatory

How the smart-money tracker is computed

Definitions, thresholds and known limitations.

Quarters and timing

Shareholding patterns are filed for calendar quarter ends (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) within 21 days. A quarter is published here once at least 30 days have passed since quarter end and at least 80% of the companies that filed the previous quarter have filed it; before that the previous quarter stays on the main page. Our data refreshes monthly, so a quarter typically appears about a month after it ends, one month ahead of the Observatory's FII axis (which applies a 60-day lag). Pages are labelled by calendar quarter end; the fiscal label is shown as secondary text.

Flow versus price

For each sector we use only companies with holdings in both quarters. The change in market-cap-weighted ownership splits exactly into a flow component (the change in each company's percentage holding, weighted by quarter-start market cap) and a mix component (the change from weights shifting as share prices move). The page leads with the flow component. Companies whose percentages do not sum to 100 (within 1 point, counting government and other holders) are excluded.

Estimated rupee flow

Estimated flow = change in holding percentage × average month-end market cap through the quarter, summed over companies. It is an estimate: it ignores intra-quarter timing, treats new shares allotted to an investor as purchases, and the holdings are rounded to 2 decimals. It is shown rounded to the nearest ₹100 crore and always labelled estimated.

Promoter changes

A promoter raising holding needs the percentage to rise at least 0.5 pp and the promoter's implied share count (percentage × derived total shares) to rise as well. Lowering is the mirror image. If the percentage fell but the promoter's share count is within 0.5% and the company issued at least 1% new shares, it is listed as diluted, not sold. If derived total shares move more than 25% in a quarter (merger, or a split reflected in prices before the next fundamentals refresh) only the percentage change is reported. Moves of 10 pp or more are listed separately. Companies with a government stake are reported as government stake changes. A sector forms a cluster when at least 3 companies move the same way, they are 15% of the sector, and they outnumber the opposite side two to one.

Retail rush

Shareholder count growth of 15% or more with FII+DII holding down 0.5 pp or more, for companies above ₹500 cr and with at least 5,000 holders in the prior quarter. Ranked by the sum of percentile ranks. Recent listings are excluded for their first two quarters. Shareholder-count history is only about 2.5 years deep, so this list covers recent quarters only. The 3-month price change is shown for context, measured to the quarter end.

Limitations

This page summarises publicly filed shareholding patterns. It describes what changed; it is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Changes in institutional or promoter holdings do not reliably predict future returns. ₹ flow figures are estimates derived from percentage changes and average market value; actual transactions may differ materially. ApnaFunda is not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment adviser. Data may contain errors or omissions; verify with exchange filings before acting.