अApnaFunda

IRIS REGTECH SOLUTIONS LIMITED (IRIS)

Technology Services

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.70 / 100
Profitability 23Growth 86Balance sheet 100

Passes these screens: Cash Rich · Value Pick

Share Price
₹195.84
P/E
3.2x
ROCE
11.0%
Market Cap
₹403 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹136 cr
P/S
3.0x
P/B
2.0x
ROE
62.4%
Operating Margin
-5.1%
Debt / Equity
0.0x
Promoter Holding
34.6%
12M Momentum
-38.0%
P/E vs its own history2nd percentilesince Nov '21
P/E vs Technology Services0.2xthe sector median

52-week range

₹191.00₹388.10
2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
43.5%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.55

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
100.0x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.97x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-38%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 196 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 61.3x to 3.2x), which took 234 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: +196 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+196 ptsP/E change: -234 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-234 ptsShare count change: -0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -38% 1 year Net profit growth: +196 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+196 ptsP/E change: -234 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-234 ptsShare count change: -0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -38%
Net profit growth+196 ptsNet profit rose about 1083%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-234 ptsThe P/E fell from 61.3x to 3.2x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
+92%share price, 3 yearsLower P/E held it back

Mostly yes, with a catch.

  • Per-share earnings added 468 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 46.2x to 3.2x), which took 376 points back.
  • The share count rose 11%.
3 years Net profit growth: +482 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+482 ptsP/E change: -376 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-376 ptsShare count change: -14 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +92% 3 years Net profit growth: +482 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+482 ptsP/E change: -376 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-376 ptsShare count change: -14 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +92%
Net profit growth+482 ptsNet profit rose about 2949%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-376 ptsThe P/E fell from 46.2x to 3.2x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-14 ptsShare count rose 11%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with ONE 97 COMMUNICATIONS PAYTM

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

3.2xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history2nd percentileMedian 56.6x; usual range 4.1x to 152.1x since 2021-11.
Against Technology Services3.2x vs 20.6xBelow the Technology Services median.
3.2x58.3x113.4x168.6xNov '21Nov '22Nov '23Nov '24Nov '25Oct '263.2x58.3x113.4x168.6xNov '21Jul '23Mar '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianTechnology Services median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianTechnology Services median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianTechnology Services median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Technology Services is valued

What is the price implying?

~11%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 13.1x, the price would imply about 10.5%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Technology Services The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 66% from the Jan 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Sep '26Slipped to the bottom quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  3. Jun '26Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Technology Services on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  4. Mar '26Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹119 cr.
  5. Mar '26FII + DII holding rose 3.1 pts over 2 quarters to 14.6%.
  6. Mar '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  7. Dec '25Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  8. Dec '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (5.1x).
Show 18 earlier events
  1. Dec '25Moved into the top quartile of Technology Services on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  2. Sep '25Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  3. Sep '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  4. Jun '25Moved into the top quartile of Technology Services on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  5. Jun '25Share count is up 10.5% over 12 months.
  6. Apr '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (35.0x).
  7. Mar '25FII + DII holding rose 3.6 pts over 2 quarters to 3.7%.
  8. Mar '25Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  9. Dec '24Moved into the 2nd quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  10. Sep '24Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Technology Services on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  11. Jun '24Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹102 cr.
  12. Jun '24Moved into the 2nd quartile of Technology Services on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  13. May '24Regained the 2021-11 peak, 14 months after the low.
  14. Jun '23Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  15. Jun '23Moved into the top quartile of Technology Services on EPS growth (from the bottom quartile).
  16. Mar '23Fell 58% from the Nov 2021 peak to the Mar 2023 low.
  17. Jun '22Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Technology Services on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  18. Feb '22Moved into the 2nd quartile of Technology Services on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

5 of 6 checks are within range, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance96%Beyond threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 96.4%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate21%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 20.9%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.97xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.97x (cash from operations ₹144 cr, net profit ₹149 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow4 of 5 yrsWithin range

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 4. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-20 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 20 days (78 vs 98). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress26% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 26% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, DIIs added 12.1 pts; promoters trimmed 2.6 pts; FIIs added 1.6 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 5,130 to 10,263 (+100%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters37.2%34.6%-2.6 pts
FIIs0.2%1.8%+1.6 pts
DIIs0.0%12.1%+12.1 pts
Public and others62.6%51.5%-11.1 pts

Number of shareholders

10,263shareholders+100% since Dec '23
5k7k9k11k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 5,130
Mar '24: 6,362
Jun '24: 7,257
Sep '24: 6,948
Dec '24: 7,893
Mar '25: 9,439
Jun '25: 9,989
Sep '25: 10,912
Dec '25: 10,469
Mar '26: 9,965
Jun '26: 10,263
5k7k9k11k Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 5,130
Mar '24: 6,362
Jun '24: 7,257
Sep '24: 6,948
Dec '24: 7,893
Mar '25: 9,439
Jun '25: 9,989
Sep '25: 10,912
Dec '25: 10,469
Mar '26: 9,965
Jun '26: 10,263

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-65.9%not yet recovered
1-year volatility43.5%annualised

Monthly share price

₹71₹199₹327₹455 Nov '21Nov '22Nov '23Nov '24Nov '25Oct '26
2021-11: ₹124.15
2021-12: ₹144.50
2022-01: ₹141.90
2022-02: ₹106.50
2022-03: ₹100.75
2022-04: ₹98.45
2022-05: ₹80.80
2022-06: ₹78.95
2022-07: ₹87.65
2022-08: ₹85.90
2022-09: ₹81.45
2022-10: ₹76.10
2022-11: ₹85.90
2022-12: ₹76.65
2023-01: ₹84.90
2023-02: ₹78.40
2023-03: ₹70.60
2023-04: ₹76.20
2023-05: ₹80.25
2023-06: ₹76.20
2023-07: ₹97.05
2023-08: ₹107.60
2023-09: ₹102.95
2023-10: ₹102.10
2023-11: ₹145.75
2023-12: ₹130.20
2024-01: ₹134.75
2024-02: ₹129.55
2024-03: ₹114.60
2024-04: ₹155.15
2024-05: ₹237.40
2024-06: ₹209.00
2024-07: ₹275.00
2024-08: ₹245.85
2024-09: ₹340.55
2024-10: ₹381.15
2024-11: ₹421.20
2024-12: ₹455.00
2025-01: ₹450.00
2025-02: ₹373.45
2025-03: ₹376.55
2025-04: ₹265.85
2025-05: ₹257.70
2025-06: ₹304.30
2025-07: ₹369.10
2025-08: ₹359.20
2025-09: ₹307.55
2025-10: ₹316.10
2025-11: ₹319.65
2025-12: ₹305.50
2026-01: ₹308.80
2026-02: ₹248.05
2026-03: ₹210.91
2026-04: ₹240.33
2026-05: ₹260.35
2026-06: ₹263.45
2026-07: ₹248.20
2026-08: ₹248.97
2026-09: ₹223.38
2026-10: ₹195.84
₹71₹199₹327₹455 Nov '21Jul '23Mar '25Oct '26
2021-11: ₹124.15
2021-12: ₹144.50
2022-01: ₹141.90
2022-02: ₹106.50
2022-03: ₹100.75
2022-04: ₹98.45
2022-05: ₹80.80
2022-06: ₹78.95
2022-07: ₹87.65
2022-08: ₹85.90
2022-09: ₹81.45
2022-10: ₹76.10
2022-11: ₹85.90
2022-12: ₹76.65
2023-01: ₹84.90
2023-02: ₹78.40
2023-03: ₹70.60
2023-04: ₹76.20
2023-05: ₹80.25
2023-06: ₹76.20
2023-07: ₹97.05
2023-08: ₹107.60
2023-09: ₹102.95
2023-10: ₹102.10
2023-11: ₹145.75
2023-12: ₹130.20
2024-01: ₹134.75
2024-02: ₹129.55
2024-03: ₹114.60
2024-04: ₹155.15
2024-05: ₹237.40
2024-06: ₹209.00
2024-07: ₹275.00
2024-08: ₹245.85
2024-09: ₹340.55
2024-10: ₹381.15
2024-11: ₹421.20
2024-12: ₹455.00
2025-01: ₹450.00
2025-02: ₹373.45
2025-03: ₹376.55
2025-04: ₹265.85
2025-05: ₹257.70
2025-06: ₹304.30
2025-07: ₹369.10
2025-08: ₹359.20
2025-09: ₹307.55
2025-10: ₹316.10
2025-11: ₹319.65
2025-12: ₹305.50
2026-01: ₹308.80
2026-02: ₹248.05
2026-03: ₹210.91
2026-04: ₹240.33
2026-05: ₹260.35
2026-06: ₹263.45
2026-07: ₹248.20
2026-08: ₹248.97
2026-09: ₹223.38
2026-10: ₹195.84

Last 90 trading days

₹196₹222₹249₹275 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹265.60
2026-06-25: ₹266.60
2026-06-30: ₹263.45
2026-07-02: ₹267.15
2026-07-06: ₹266.50
2026-07-08: ₹254.45
2026-07-10: ₹257.45
2026-07-14: ₹255.25
2026-07-16: ₹252.10
2026-07-20: ₹241.50
2026-07-22: ₹237.45
2026-07-24: ₹244.50
2026-07-28: ₹237.90
2026-07-30: ₹241.55
2026-08-03: ₹254.52
2026-08-05: ₹266.96
2026-08-07: ₹257.45
2026-08-11: ₹246.36
2026-08-13: ₹240.72
2026-08-17: ₹246.76
2026-08-19: ₹244.92
2026-08-21: ₹243.89
2026-08-25: ₹238.33
2026-08-27: ₹235.68
2026-08-31: ₹248.97
2026-09-02: ₹245.80
2026-09-04: ₹265.92
2026-09-08: ₹254.67
2026-09-10: ₹249.08
2026-09-15: ₹237.78
2026-09-17: ₹237.13
2026-09-21: ₹245.37
2026-09-23: ₹234.87
2026-09-25: ₹235.94
2026-09-29: ₹230.23
2026-10-01: ₹225.10
2026-10-06: ₹221.57
2026-10-08: ₹212.68
2026-10-12: ₹211.77
2026-10-14: ₹213.40
2026-10-16: ₹212.27
2026-10-21: ₹205.10
2026-10-23: ₹198.22
2026-10-27: ₹202.76
2026-10-29: ₹200.67
2026-10-30: ₹195.84
₹196₹222₹249₹275 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹265.60
2026-06-25: ₹266.60
2026-06-30: ₹263.45
2026-07-02: ₹267.15
2026-07-06: ₹266.50
2026-07-08: ₹254.45
2026-07-10: ₹257.45
2026-07-14: ₹255.25
2026-07-16: ₹252.10
2026-07-20: ₹241.50
2026-07-22: ₹237.45
2026-07-24: ₹244.50
2026-07-28: ₹237.90
2026-07-30: ₹241.55
2026-08-03: ₹254.52
2026-08-05: ₹266.96
2026-08-07: ₹257.45
2026-08-11: ₹246.36
2026-08-13: ₹240.72
2026-08-17: ₹246.76
2026-08-19: ₹244.92
2026-08-21: ₹243.89
2026-08-25: ₹238.33
2026-08-27: ₹235.68
2026-08-31: ₹248.97
2026-09-02: ₹245.80
2026-09-04: ₹265.92
2026-09-08: ₹254.67
2026-09-10: ₹249.08
2026-09-15: ₹237.78
2026-09-17: ₹237.13
2026-09-21: ₹245.37
2026-09-23: ₹234.87
2026-09-25: ₹235.94
2026-09-29: ₹230.23
2026-10-01: ₹225.10
2026-10-06: ₹221.57
2026-10-08: ₹212.68
2026-10-12: ₹211.77
2026-10-14: ₹213.40
2026-10-16: ₹212.27
2026-10-21: ₹205.10
2026-10-23: ₹198.22
2026-10-27: ₹202.76
2026-10-29: ₹200.67
2026-10-30: ₹195.84

Drawdown from peak

0% -33% -66% Nov '21May '24Oct '26 0% -33% -66% Nov '21May '24Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-65.9% (2025-01 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-57.6% (2021-11 peak to 2023-03 low, recovered 2024-05)

-18.2% (2024-05 peak to 2024-06 low, recovered 2024-07)

Where does it rank among Technology Services peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Technology Services peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Technology Services sector page Watch it move against Technology Services in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−1.9%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like IRIS REGTECH SOLUTIONS LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −21% to +32% vs the market, against −3% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+1.2%, 80% range −7.3% to +8.6%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−50%0%+50%+100%
DIGIDRIVE · Aug 2025: −47.8% vs market
ASMS · Nov 2024: −40.5% vs market
EXCELINDUS · Mar 2023: −40.1% vs market
PONNIERODE · Nov 2024: −34.5% vs market
ALPA · Sep 2025: −33.0% vs market
TVTODAY · Feb 2025: −32.3% vs market
KRBL · Dec 2023: −31.9% vs market
ANDHRSUGAR · Jun 2023: −28.8% vs market
RAMCOIND · May 2022: −27.8% vs market
DEN · Apr 2022: −24.2% vs market
QUICKHEAL · May 2022: −23.8% vs market
GNFC · Feb 2024: −21.7% vs market
CHEMCON · May 2024: −21.2% vs market
BOMDYEING · Jun 2025: −20.7% vs market
BHAGERIA · Dec 2022: −20.7% vs market
XCHANGING · May 2022: −20.0% vs market
UNITEDTEA · Dec 2021: −18.2% vs market
PODDARMENT · Apr 2024: −18.2% vs market
GUJALKALI · May 2023: −18.1% vs market
BFINVEST · Jun 2025: −10.4% vs market
GSFC · May 2024: −9.7% vs market
HMVL · Jun 2020: −7.8% vs market
NAVNETEDUL · Dec 2024: −7.5% vs market
AHLEAST · Oct 2023: −7.4% vs market
GIPCL · May 2021: −3.1% vs market
TTKHLTCARE · Sep 2023: −0.7% vs market
NSIL · Jan 2020: +1.7% vs market
KIRIINDUS · Jan 2023: +4.5% vs market
JAGRAN · Oct 2020: +5.7% vs market
GRAPHITE · Aug 2024: +7.1% vs market
KSL · Jan 2022: +7.3% vs market
ANTELOPUS · Mar 2020: +11.5% vs market
VLSFINANCE · Dec 2022: +15.8% vs market
DVL · Oct 2022: +16.6% vs market
KSCL · Dec 2023: +21.2% vs market
SOMATEX · Jun 2024: +25.9% vs market
SANDESH · Jan 2022: +29.5% vs market
TECHNOE · Dec 2021: +32.5% vs market
ALBERTDAVD · Aug 2022: +33.8% vs market
VARDHACRLC · Aug 2020: +36.4% vs market
CARERATING · Apr 2022: +40.6% vs market
VOLTAMP · Apr 2021: +40.6% vs market
HLVLTD · Dec 2020: +43.2% vs market
PTL · Apr 2021: +51.1% vs market
NUCLEUS · Mar 2022: +62.6% vs market
LINCOLN · Aug 2022: +64.9% vs market
SESHAPAPER · Jan 2022: +92.5% vs market
CHEMBOND · May 2022: +104.1% vs market
IZMO · May 2022: +113.2% vs market
63MOONS · Sep 2024: +133.4% vs market
Similar setups −1.9%All companies −3.1%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−1.9%
All companies' median
−3.1%
Beat the market
48% vs 47%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 35 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
HLVLTD
Consumer Services
Dec 2020 2x8% −6%−13% +43%
ANTELOPUS
Energy Minerals
Mar 2020 2x15% −63%−65% +12%
VLSFINANCE
Finance
Dec 2022 3x8% −29%−39% +16%
TTKHLTCARE
Health Technology
Sep 2023 3x10% +24%−12% −1%
DVL
Consumer Non-Durables
Oct 2022 2x24% −15%−27% +17%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
SANDESH
Consumer Services
Jan 2022 6x14% +10%−25% +30%
ALPA
Health Technology
Sep 2025 7x16% −36%−36% −33%
HMVL
Consumer Services
Jun 2020 3x11% −46%−49% −8%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, debt/equity and size. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to IRIS REGTECH SOLUTIONS LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (60 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-103.2x₹136 cr62.4%11.0%0.0x
2026-093.7x₹136 cr62.4%11.0%0.0x
2026-084.0x₹128 cr63.0%11.0%0.0x
2026-074.0x₹128 cr63.0%11.0%0.0x
2026-064.3x₹128 cr63.0%11.0%0.0x
2026-054.3x₹119 cr164.8%30.0%0.1x
2026-043.9x₹119 cr164.8%30.0%0.1x
2026-033.5x₹119 cr164.8%30.0%0.1x
2026-024.1x₹116 cr162.6%30.0%0.1x
2026-015.1x₹116 cr162.6%30.0%0.1x
2025-125.1x₹116 cr162.6%30.0%0.1x
2025-1161.9x₹115 cr13.9%30.0%0.1x
2025-1061.3x₹115 cr13.9%30.0%0.1x
2025-0959.6x₹115 cr13.9%30.0%0.1x
2025-0855.0x₹117 cr17.4%30.0%0.1x
2025-0756.5x₹117 cr17.4%30.0%0.1x
2025-0646.6x₹117 cr17.4%30.0%0.1x
2025-0534.0x₹118 cr36.8%27.0%0.1x
2025-0435.0x₹118 cr36.8%27.0%0.1x
2025-0349.6x₹118 cr36.8%27.0%0.1x
2025-0255.7x₹112 cr32.4%27.0%0.1x
2025-0167.1x₹112 cr32.4%27.0%0.1x
2024-1267.8x₹112 cr32.4%27.0%0.1x
2024-1177.0x₹109 cr26.2%27.0%0.1x
2024-1069.7x₹109 cr26.2%27.0%0.1x
2024-0962.3x₹109 cr26.2%27.0%0.1x
2024-0854.8x₹102 cr21.4%27.0%0.1x
2024-0761.2x₹102 cr21.4%27.0%0.1x
2024-0646.5x₹102 cr21.4%27.0%0.1x
2024-05107.4x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2024-0470.2x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2024-0351.9x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2024-0258.6x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2024-0161.0x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-1258.9x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-1166.0x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-1046.2x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-0946.6x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-0848.7x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-0743.9x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-0634.5x₹74 cr13.3%17.0%0.2x
2023-05154.3x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2023-04146.5x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2023-03135.8x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2023-02150.8x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2023-01163.3x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-12147.4x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-11165.2x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-10146.3x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-09156.6x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-08165.2x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-07168.6x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-06151.8x₹61 cr3.6%8.0%0.3x
2022-0536.9x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2022-0445.0x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2022-0346.0x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2022-0248.6x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2022-0164.8x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2021-1266.0x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x
2021-1156.7x₹57 cr15.7%16.0%0.2x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

Feedback