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ORIENTAL TRIMEX LIMITED (ORIENTALTL)

Non-Energy Minerals

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.83 / 100
Profitability 50Growth 98Balance sheet 100
Share Price
₹4.43
P/E
16.4x
ROCE
3.8%
Market Cap
₹33 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹27 cr
P/S
1.2x
P/B
0.3x
ROE
2.0%
Operating Margin
17.6%
Debt / Equity
0.0x
Promoter Holding
25.9%
12M Momentum
-56.9%
P/E vs its own history39th percentilesince Jan '19
P/E vs Non-Energy Minerals0.8xthe sector median

52-week range

₹4.29₹10.84
2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
40.4%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.45

Balance sheet & cash

Debt service
no meaningful debt
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
-2.00x
low
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-57%share price, 1 yearEarnings-driven

Mostly earnings.

  • Per-share earnings took off 100 points, while the multiple moved less (P/E 8.7x to 16.4x).
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: -100 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-100 ptsP/E change: +43 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+43 pts -57% 1 year Net profit growth: -100 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-100 ptsP/E change: +43 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+43 pts -57%
Net profit growth-100 ptsNet profit fell about 77%, which lowers the price.
P/E change+43 ptsThe P/E rose from 8.7x to 16.4x, which lifts the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with ULTRATECH CEMENT

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

16.4xP/E todayWithin its usual range
Against its own history39th percentileMedian 21.2x; usual range 7.1x to 78.5x since 2019-01.
Against Non-Energy Minerals16.4x vs 21.3xBelow the Non-Energy Minerals median.
4.6x33.6x62.7x91.8xJan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '264.6x33.6x62.7x91.8xJan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianNon-Energy Minerals median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianNon-Energy Minerals median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianNon-Energy Minerals median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Non-Energy Minerals is valued

What is the price implying?

~13%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 16.4x, the price would imply about 13.0%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Below the ₹1,000 cr market-cap floor used for the lists.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Non-Energy Minerals The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 74% from the Jun 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Jun '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  3. Mar '26Moved into the top quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  4. Jan '26Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.02x.
  5. Nov '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (7.3x).
  6. Sep '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the top quartile).
  7. Jun '25EPS (TTM) turned positive.
  8. Jun '25Regained the 2024-09 peak, 2 months after the low.
Show 13 earlier events
  1. Jun '25Moved into the top quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  2. Jun '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.02x.
  3. Jun '25Share count is up 150.0% over 12 months.
  4. Apr '25Fell 48% from the Sep 2024 peak to the Apr 2025 low.
  5. Aug '24Regained the 2020-07 peak, 17 months after the low.
  6. Mar '23Fell 68% from the Jul 2020 peak to the Mar 2023 low.
  7. Jun '21EPS (TTM) turned negative.
  8. Jun '21Slipped to the bottom quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  9. Jun '20Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  10. Jun '20Regained the 2019-02 peak, 3 months after the low.
  11. Jun '20Moved into the top quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on EPS growth (from the bottom quartile).
  12. Mar '20Fell 66% from the Feb 2019 peak to the Mar 2020 low.
  13. Jan '20Share count is up 19.7% over 12 months.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

3 of 7 checks are within range, 3 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance30%Near threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 29.9%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate24%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 23.8%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion-18.44xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -18.44x (cash from operations ₹-71.2 cr, net profit ₹3.9 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-393 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 393 days (679 vs 1072). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress0% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 0% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days+547 days / 2 yrsNear threshold

Days payable changed by +547 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, promoters trimmed 1.4 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 18,807 to 40,621 (+116%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters27.2%25.9%-1.4 pts
FIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
DIIs0.3%0.0%-0.3 pts
Public and others72.4%74.2%+1.7 pts

Number of shareholders

40,621shareholders+116% since Dec '23
19k28k38k47k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 18,807
Mar '24: 22,416
Jun '24: 22,357
Sep '24: 25,979
Dec '24: 26,341
Mar '25: 25,966
Jun '25: 47,340
Sep '25: 46,209
Dec '25: 43,597
Jun '26: 40,621
19k28k38k47k Dec '23Sep '24Jun '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 18,807
Mar '24: 22,416
Jun '24: 22,357
Sep '24: 25,979
Dec '24: 26,341
Mar '25: 25,966
Jun '25: 47,340
Sep '25: 46,209
Dec '25: 43,597
Jun '26: 40,621

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-74.4%not yet recovered
1-year volatility40.4%annualised

Monthly share price

₹4₹8₹11₹15 Jan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '26
2019-01: ₹9.04
2019-02: ₹11.13
2019-03: ₹9.81
2019-04: ₹9.54
2019-05: ₹9.27
2019-06: ₹11.01
2019-07: ₹10.16
2019-08: ₹10.51
2019-09: ₹10.08
2019-10: ₹10.28
2019-11: ₹8.76
2019-12: ₹7.80
2020-01: ₹7.99
2020-02: ₹7.80
2020-03: ₹4.19
2020-04: ₹5.51
2020-05: ₹6.09
2020-06: ₹11.94
2020-07: ₹6.55
2020-08: ₹7.91
2020-09: ₹7.02
2020-10: ₹6.55
2020-11: ₹6.24
2020-12: ₹8.57
2021-01: ₹7.10
2021-02: ₹5.62
2021-03: ₹4.77
2021-04: ₹5.70
2021-05: ₹6.79
2021-06: ₹9.31
2021-07: ₹8.14
2021-08: ₹6.59
2021-09: ₹6.48
2021-10: ₹7.83
2021-11: ₹7.14
2021-12: ₹8.49
2022-01: ₹10.08
2022-02: ₹9.11
2022-03: ₹9.19
2022-04: ₹9.93
2022-05: ₹10.51
2022-06: ₹9.23
2022-07: ₹10.20
2022-08: ₹12.53
2022-09: ₹8.38
2022-10: ₹7.48
2022-11: ₹6.44
2022-12: ₹6.40
2023-01: ₹5.89
2023-02: ₹5.31
2023-03: ₹4.65
2023-04: ₹5.43
2023-05: ₹5.31
2023-06: ₹4.85
2023-07: ₹4.65
2023-08: ₹5.74
2023-09: ₹5.62
2023-10: ₹5.00
2023-11: ₹6.40
2023-12: ₹7.29
2024-01: ₹7.76
2024-02: ₹8.84
2024-03: ₹6.44
2024-04: ₹6.71
2024-05: ₹7.64
2024-06: ₹8.21
2024-07: ₹9.07
2024-08: ₹12.67
2024-09: ₹14.94
2024-10: ₹11.82
2024-11: ₹10.13
2024-12: ₹9.49
2025-01: ₹9.53
2025-02: ₹9.42
2025-03: ₹9.05
2025-04: ₹11.40
2025-05: ₹13.48
2025-06: ₹13.92
2025-07: ₹10.02
2025-08: ₹9.22
2025-09: ₹10.38
2025-10: ₹10.27
2025-11: ₹8.61
2025-12: ₹8.20
2026-01: ₹7.23
2026-02: ₹6.62
2026-03: ₹4.50
2026-04: ₹6.94
2026-05: ₹6.46
2026-06: ₹5.68
2026-07: ₹5.13
2026-08: ₹5.03
2026-09: ₹4.83
2026-10: ₹4.43
₹4₹8₹11₹15 Jan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
2019-01: ₹9.04
2019-02: ₹11.13
2019-03: ₹9.81
2019-04: ₹9.54
2019-05: ₹9.27
2019-06: ₹11.01
2019-07: ₹10.16
2019-08: ₹10.51
2019-09: ₹10.08
2019-10: ₹10.28
2019-11: ₹8.76
2019-12: ₹7.80
2020-01: ₹7.99
2020-02: ₹7.80
2020-03: ₹4.19
2020-04: ₹5.51
2020-05: ₹6.09
2020-06: ₹11.94
2020-07: ₹6.55
2020-08: ₹7.91
2020-09: ₹7.02
2020-10: ₹6.55
2020-11: ₹6.24
2020-12: ₹8.57
2021-01: ₹7.10
2021-02: ₹5.62
2021-03: ₹4.77
2021-04: ₹5.70
2021-05: ₹6.79
2021-06: ₹9.31
2021-07: ₹8.14
2021-08: ₹6.59
2021-09: ₹6.48
2021-10: ₹7.83
2021-11: ₹7.14
2021-12: ₹8.49
2022-01: ₹10.08
2022-02: ₹9.11
2022-03: ₹9.19
2022-04: ₹9.93
2022-05: ₹10.51
2022-06: ₹9.23
2022-07: ₹10.20
2022-08: ₹12.53
2022-09: ₹8.38
2022-10: ₹7.48
2022-11: ₹6.44
2022-12: ₹6.40
2023-01: ₹5.89
2023-02: ₹5.31
2023-03: ₹4.65
2023-04: ₹5.43
2023-05: ₹5.31
2023-06: ₹4.85
2023-07: ₹4.65
2023-08: ₹5.74
2023-09: ₹5.62
2023-10: ₹5.00
2023-11: ₹6.40
2023-12: ₹7.29
2024-01: ₹7.76
2024-02: ₹8.84
2024-03: ₹6.44
2024-04: ₹6.71
2024-05: ₹7.64
2024-06: ₹8.21
2024-07: ₹9.07
2024-08: ₹12.67
2024-09: ₹14.94
2024-10: ₹11.82
2024-11: ₹10.13
2024-12: ₹9.49
2025-01: ₹9.53
2025-02: ₹9.42
2025-03: ₹9.05
2025-04: ₹11.40
2025-05: ₹13.48
2025-06: ₹13.92
2025-07: ₹10.02
2025-08: ₹9.22
2025-09: ₹10.38
2025-10: ₹10.27
2025-11: ₹8.61
2025-12: ₹8.20
2026-01: ₹7.23
2026-02: ₹6.62
2026-03: ₹4.50
2026-04: ₹6.94
2026-05: ₹6.46
2026-06: ₹5.68
2026-07: ₹5.13
2026-08: ₹5.03
2026-09: ₹4.83
2026-10: ₹4.43

Last 90 trading days

₹4₹5₹6₹6 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹6.26
2026-06-25: ₹6.00
2026-06-30: ₹5.68
2026-07-02: ₹5.68
2026-07-06: ₹5.78
2026-07-08: ₹5.62
2026-07-10: ₹5.52
2026-07-14: ₹5.43
2026-07-16: ₹5.54
2026-07-20: ₹5.42
2026-07-22: ₹5.32
2026-07-24: ₹5.31
2026-07-28: ₹5.30
2026-07-30: ₹5.23
2026-08-03: ₹5.19
2026-08-05: ₹5.14
2026-08-07: ₹5.16
2026-08-11: ₹5.10
2026-08-13: ₹5.05
2026-08-17: ₹5.05
2026-08-19: ₹5.06
2026-08-21: ₹5.02
2026-08-25: ₹5.14
2026-08-27: ₹5.14
2026-08-31: ₹5.03
2026-09-02: ₹4.98
2026-09-04: ₹5.31
2026-09-08: ₹5.11
2026-09-10: ₹5.09
2026-09-15: ₹5.02
2026-09-17: ₹4.98
2026-09-21: ₹5.08
2026-09-23: ₹4.96
2026-09-25: ₹4.99
2026-09-29: ₹4.86
2026-10-01: ₹4.81
2026-10-06: ₹4.87
2026-10-08: ₹4.79
2026-10-12: ₹4.70
2026-10-14: ₹4.76
2026-10-16: ₹4.76
2026-10-21: ₹4.74
2026-10-23: ₹4.60
2026-10-27: ₹4.47
2026-10-29: ₹4.44
2026-10-30: ₹4.43
₹4₹5₹6₹6 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹6.26
2026-06-25: ₹6.00
2026-06-30: ₹5.68
2026-07-02: ₹5.68
2026-07-06: ₹5.78
2026-07-08: ₹5.62
2026-07-10: ₹5.52
2026-07-14: ₹5.43
2026-07-16: ₹5.54
2026-07-20: ₹5.42
2026-07-22: ₹5.32
2026-07-24: ₹5.31
2026-07-28: ₹5.30
2026-07-30: ₹5.23
2026-08-03: ₹5.19
2026-08-05: ₹5.14
2026-08-07: ₹5.16
2026-08-11: ₹5.10
2026-08-13: ₹5.05
2026-08-17: ₹5.05
2026-08-19: ₹5.06
2026-08-21: ₹5.02
2026-08-25: ₹5.14
2026-08-27: ₹5.14
2026-08-31: ₹5.03
2026-09-02: ₹4.98
2026-09-04: ₹5.31
2026-09-08: ₹5.11
2026-09-10: ₹5.09
2026-09-15: ₹5.02
2026-09-17: ₹4.98
2026-09-21: ₹5.08
2026-09-23: ₹4.96
2026-09-25: ₹4.99
2026-09-29: ₹4.86
2026-10-01: ₹4.81
2026-10-06: ₹4.87
2026-10-08: ₹4.79
2026-10-12: ₹4.70
2026-10-14: ₹4.76
2026-10-16: ₹4.76
2026-10-21: ₹4.74
2026-10-23: ₹4.60
2026-10-27: ₹4.47
2026-10-29: ₹4.44
2026-10-30: ₹4.43

Drawdown from peak

0% -37% -74% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -37% -74% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-74.4% (2025-06 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-67.9% (2020-07 peak to 2023-03 low, recovered 2024-08)

-66.1% (2019-02 peak to 2020-03 low, recovered 2020-06)

Where does it rank among Non-Energy Minerals peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Non-Energy Minerals peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Non-Energy Minerals sector page Watch it move against Non-Energy Minerals in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−3.5%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like ORIENTAL TRIMEX LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −26% to +13% vs the market, against −7% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+3.4%, 80% range −11.1% to +8.9%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
GSS · Dec 2023: −72.0% vs market
DHRUV · Aug 2025: −65.3% vs market
ALANKIT · Aug 2025: −46.4% vs market
VIKASECO · Oct 2025: −45.9% vs market
MIEL · Sep 2025: −41.9% vs market
YCCL · Oct 2024: −41.4% vs market
NIDAN · Jun 2025: −38.7% vs market
ENIL · Feb 2025: −36.7% vs market
ORIENTBELL · May 2024: −35.3% vs market
SHYAMCENT · Apr 2025: −35.2% vs market
HPAL · Feb 2025: −33.5% vs market
CLEDUCATE · Jan 2020: −26.0% vs market
RADIANTCMS · Sep 2024: −25.7% vs market
HATHWAY · Dec 2024: −25.2% vs market
PARAGON · Jun 2025: −23.6% vs market
WIPL · Sep 2020: −22.4% vs market
GUJRAFFIA · May 2022: −19.6% vs market
SPECIALITY · Jul 2024: −19.5% vs market
ONDOOR · Apr 2025: −19.1% vs market
LOVABLE · May 2023: −18.8% vs market
APEX · Aug 2023: −17.6% vs market
UFO · Mar 2025: −14.6% vs market
MURUDCERA · Mar 2025: −14.3% vs market
SDBL · Aug 2020: −13.9% vs market
LOTUSEYE · Feb 2024: −5.1% vs market
HARDWYN · Sep 2025: −2.0% vs market
ASHIMASYN · Jun 2022: +0.1% vs market
SOMICONVEY · Jan 2022: +1.5% vs market
SMARTLINK · Dec 2022: +2.5% vs market
HMVL · Jun 2022: +3.9% vs market
PROV · Jun 2024: +4.2% vs market
AAKASH · May 2025: +4.6% vs market
NAHARPOLY · Mar 2024: +6.6% vs market
NITIRAJ · Feb 2021: +9.9% vs market
EIMCOELECO · Jan 2022: +10.7% vs market
MIRZAINT · Jan 2025: +11.6% vs market
DBSTOCKBRO · May 2025: +12.4% vs market
BANKA · Nov 2023: +13.2% vs market
AIRAN · May 2023: +16.3% vs market
COMPUSOFT · Feb 2020: +27.1% vs market
ASAHISONG · May 2023: +31.2% vs market
BANARBEADS · May 2024: +36.8% vs market
GUJAPOLLO · Mar 2024: +38.6% vs market
UNICHEMLAB · Oct 2021: +65.3% vs market
KANDARP · Sep 2023: +86.2% vs market
KILITCH · Dec 2022: +86.7% vs market
TDPOWERSYS · Oct 2020: +102.4% vs market
CHEMBOND · Jul 2022: +106.7% vs market
STERTOOLS · Feb 2022: +139.7% vs market
ICEMAKE · Nov 2021: +317.0% vs market
Similar setups −3.5%All companies −6.9%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 4 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−3.5%
All companies' median
−6.9%
Beat the market
48% vs 42%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 36 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
NITIRAJ
Electronic Technology
Feb 2021 19x4% −21%— +10%
EIMCOELECO
Producer Manufacturing
Jan 2022 18x5% +7%−32% +11%
KANDARP
Commercial Services
Sep 2023 17x11% −25%— +86%
HPAL
Non-Energy Minerals
Feb 2025 21x— −58%−62% −34%
ONDOOR
Retail Trade
Apr 2025 17x7% −40%−66% −19%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
ALANKIT
Technology Services
Aug 2025 19x11% −49%−50% −46%
MIEL
Industrial Services
Sep 2025 14x13% −63%−66% −42%
HMVL
Consumer Services
Jun 2022 9x3% −34%−46% +4%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, P/E and drawdown from 12-month high. Not used (unavailable for this company): interest cover. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to ORIENTAL TRIMEX LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (94 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1016.4x₹27 cr2.0%3.8%0.0x
2026-0917.9x₹27 cr2.0%3.8%0.0x
2026-0821.0x₹21 cr1.8%3.8%0.0x
2026-0721.4x₹21 cr1.8%3.8%0.0x
2026-0623.7x₹21 cr1.8%3.8%0.0x
2026-057.4x₹24 cr6.6%-4.9%0.0x
2026-048.0x₹24 cr6.6%-4.9%0.0x
2026-035.2x₹24 cr6.6%-4.9%0.0x
2026-024.6x₹22 cr10.8%-4.9%0.0x
2026-015.0x₹22 cr10.8%-4.9%0.0x
2025-125.7x₹22 cr10.8%-4.9%0.0x
2025-117.3x₹22 cr8.9%-4.9%0.0x
2025-108.7x₹22 cr8.9%-4.9%0.0x
2025-098.8x₹22 cr8.9%-4.9%0.0x
2025-087.9x₹21 cr8.7%-4.9%0.0x
2025-078.6x₹21 cr8.7%-4.9%0.0x
2025-0611.9x₹21 cr8.7%-4.9%0.0x
2025-05—₹7 cr-1.9%-6.4%0.5x
2025-04—₹7 cr-1.9%-6.4%0.5x
2025-03—₹7 cr-1.9%-6.4%0.5x
2025-02—₹6 cr-13.8%-6.4%0.5x
2025-01—₹6 cr-13.8%-6.4%0.5x
2024-12—₹6 cr-13.8%-6.4%0.5x
2024-11—₹4 cr-10.0%-6.4%0.5x
2024-10—₹4 cr-10.0%-6.4%0.5x
2024-09—₹4 cr-10.0%-6.4%0.5x
2024-08—₹4 cr-10.6%-6.4%0.5x
2024-07—₹4 cr-10.6%-6.4%0.5x
2024-06—₹4 cr-10.6%-6.4%0.5x
2024-05—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2024-04—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2024-03—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2024-02—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2024-01—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-12—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-11—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-10—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-09—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-08—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-07—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-06—₹9 cr-2.5%-3.6%0.4x
2023-05—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2023-04—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2023-03—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2023-02—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2023-01—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-12—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-11—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-10—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-09—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-08—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-07—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-06—₹19 cr-8.3%-0.1%0.4x
2022-05—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2022-04—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2022-03—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2022-02—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2022-01—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-12—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-11—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-10—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-09—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-08—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-07—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-06—₹18 cr-2.1%1.9%0.4x
2021-0523.4x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2021-0419.7x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2021-0316.4x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2021-0219.4x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2021-0124.5x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-1229.6x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-1121.5x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-1022.6x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-0924.2x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-0827.3x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-0722.6x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-0641.2x₹75 cr1.0%8.0%0.4x
2020-0550.8x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2020-0445.9x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2020-0334.9x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2020-0265.0x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2020-0166.6x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-1265.0x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-1173.0x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-1085.7x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-0984.0x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-0887.6x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-0784.7x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-0691.8x₹73 cr0.4%6.3%0.2x
2019-057.2x₹54 cr10.5%6.8%0.3x
2019-047.4x₹54 cr10.5%6.8%0.3x
2019-037.6x₹54 cr10.5%6.8%0.3x
2019-028.6x₹54 cr10.5%6.8%0.3x
2019-017.0x₹54 cr10.5%6.8%0.3x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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