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MAHICKRA CHEMICALS LIMITED (MAHICKRA)

Process Industries

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.61 / 100
Profitability 58Growth 52Balance sheet 73

Passes these screens: High Momentum · Near 52-week high

Share Price
₹308.00
P/E
58.4x
ROCE
13.0%
Market Cap
₹301 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹106 cr
P/S
2.8x
P/B
4.5x
ROE
7.7%
Debt / Equity
0.2x
Promoter Holding
40.1%
12M Momentum
90.2%
P/E vs its own history68th percentilesince Jun '22
P/E vs Process Industries3.3xthe sector median

52-week range

₹131.00₹317.95
95% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
54.4%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.03

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
4.5x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
-1.00x
low
Share count, 1Y
+25.0%

Was the rally earned?

+90%share price, 1 yearEarnings-driven

Mostly yes.

  • Per-share earnings added 74 points to the rise, while the multiple moved less (P/E 52.1x to 58.4x).
  • The share count rose 25%.
1 year Net profit growth: +105 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+105 ptsP/E change: +16 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+16 ptsShare count change: -31 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-31 pts +90% 1 year Net profit growth: +105 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+105 ptsP/E change: +16 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.Share count change: -31 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-31 pts +90%
Net profit growth+105 ptsNet profit rose about 112%, which lifts the price.
P/E change+16 ptsThe P/E rose from 52.1x to 58.4x, which lifts the price.
Share count change-31 ptsShare count rose 25%, which lowers the price.
+253%share price, 3 yearsMultiple-driven

Partly.

  • Most of the rise came from investors paying a higher multiple (P/E 21.5x to 58.4x); per-share earnings added 53 points.
  • The share count rose 25%.
3 years Net profit growth: +98 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+98 ptsP/E change: +201 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+201 ptsShare count change: -45 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-45 pts +253% 3 years Net profit growth: +98 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+98 ptsP/E change: +201 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+201 ptsShare count change: -45 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +253%
Net profit growth+98 ptsNet profit rose about 63%, which lifts the price.
P/E change+201 ptsThe P/E rose from 21.5x to 58.4x, which lifts the price.
Share count change-45 ptsShare count rose 25%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with COROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL LIMIT

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

58.4xP/E todayWithin its usual range
Against its own history68th percentileMedian 47.8x; usual range 18.4x to 85.2x since 2022-06.
Against Process Industries58.4x vs 18.0xAbove the Process Industries median.
13.5x40.7x67.8x95.0xJun '22May '23Apr '24Mar '25Feb '26Oct '2613.5x40.7x67.8x95.0xJun '22Dec '23Jun '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Process Industries is valued

What is the price implying?

~35%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 97.4x, the price would imply about 34.8%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Process Industries The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Jun '26Promoter holding fell 8.2 pts to 40.1% (largest drop in the history since 2019-01).
  2. Jun '26Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹106 cr.
  3. Jun '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  4. Jun '26Dividend payout cut from 6% to 3% of profit.
  5. Jun '26Share count is up 25.0% over 12 months.
  6. Aug '25Regained the 2024-02 peak, 13 months after the low.
  7. Jun '25Promoter holding fell 3.2 pts to 48.6% (largest drop in the history since 2019-01).
  8. Jun '25Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
Show 12 earlier events
  1. Jun '25Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the bottom quartile).
  2. Jun '25Dividend payout cut from 23% to 6% of profit.
  3. Mar '25P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (95.0x).
  4. Dec '24Promoter holding fell 3.1 pts to 51.8% (largest drop in the history since 2019-01).
  5. Jul '24Fell 37% from the Feb 2024 peak to the Jul 2024 low.
  6. Jun '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (76.5x).
  7. Jun '24Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  8. Jun '23Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹103 cr.
  9. Jan '23Regained the 2020-01 peak, 3 months after the low.
  10. Oct '22Fell 30% from the Jan 2020 peak to the Oct 2022 low.
  11. Oct '19Regained the 2019-06 peak, 2 months after the low.
  12. Aug '19Fell 25% from the Jun 2019 peak to the Aug 2019 low.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 6 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance14%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 14.3%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Cash conversion-1.00xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -1.00x (cash from operations ₹-9 cr, net profit ₹9 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-4 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 4 days (115 vs 119). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress0% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 0% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-21 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -21 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 3 years, promoters trimmed 12.9 pts; FIIs trimmed 0.6 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 309 to 485 (+57%) between Mar 2021 and Mar 2026.

Holdings, Mar '26

How each group changed

GroupMar '21Mar '26Change
Promoters49.8%40.1%-9.7 pts
FIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
DIIs2.9%0.0%-2.9 pts
Public and others47.3%59.9%+12.6 pts

Number of shareholders

485shareholders+57% since Mar '21
291356420485 Mar '21Mar '22Mar '23Mar '24Mar '25Mar '26
Mar '21: 309
Sep '21: 327
Mar '22: 305
Sep '22: 312
Mar '23: 291
Sep '23: 303
Mar '24: 309
Sep '24: 351
Mar '25: 374
Sep '25: 355
Mar '26: 485
291356420485 Mar '21Mar '23Mar '25Mar '26
Mar '21: 309
Sep '21: 327
Mar '22: 305
Sep '22: 312
Mar '23: 291
Sep '23: 303
Mar '24: 309
Sep '24: 351
Mar '25: 374
Sep '25: 355
Mar '26: 485

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-37.3%recovered 2025-08
1-year volatility54.4%annualised

Monthly share price

₹70₹149₹229₹308 Jun '22May '23Apr '24Mar '25Feb '26Oct '26
2022-06: ₹71.90
2022-07: ₹74.90
2022-08: ₹69.50
2022-09: ₹72.95
2022-10: ₹69.50
2022-11: ₹71.00
2022-12: ₹80.45
2023-01: ₹100.45
2023-02: ₹95.50
2023-03: ₹98.00
2023-04: ₹93.60
2023-05: ₹85.85
2023-06: ₹83.85
2023-07: ₹83.50
2023-08: ₹80.40
2023-09: ₹91.00
2023-10: ₹87.15
2023-11: ₹98.25
2023-12: ₹101.10
2024-01: ₹137.45
2024-02: ₹150.20
2024-03: ₹122.55
2024-04: ₹117.15
2024-05: ₹113.00
2024-06: ₹101.00
2024-07: ₹104.00
2024-08: ₹112.20
2024-09: ₹109.95
2024-10: ₹113.00
2024-11: ₹112.50
2024-12: ₹113.00
2025-01: ₹107.40
2025-02: ₹105.00
2025-03: ₹125.40
2025-04: ₹118.95
2025-05: ₹124.10
2025-06: ₹125.30
2025-07: ₹140.00
2025-08: ₹162.00
2025-09: ₹158.00
2025-10: ₹161.90
2025-11: ₹155.00
2025-12: ₹148.55
2026-01: ₹184.95
2026-02: ₹185.00
2026-03: ₹212.00
2026-04: ₹232.55
2026-05: ₹240.00
2026-06: ₹273.85
2026-07: ₹274.65
2026-08: ₹297.00
2026-09: ₹280.00
2026-10: ₹308.00
₹70₹149₹229₹308 Jun '22Dec '23Jun '25Oct '26
2022-06: ₹71.90
2022-07: ₹74.90
2022-08: ₹69.50
2022-09: ₹72.95
2022-10: ₹69.50
2022-11: ₹71.00
2022-12: ₹80.45
2023-01: ₹100.45
2023-02: ₹95.50
2023-03: ₹98.00
2023-04: ₹93.60
2023-05: ₹85.85
2023-06: ₹83.85
2023-07: ₹83.50
2023-08: ₹80.40
2023-09: ₹91.00
2023-10: ₹87.15
2023-11: ₹98.25
2023-12: ₹101.10
2024-01: ₹137.45
2024-02: ₹150.20
2024-03: ₹122.55
2024-04: ₹117.15
2024-05: ₹113.00
2024-06: ₹101.00
2024-07: ₹104.00
2024-08: ₹112.20
2024-09: ₹109.95
2024-10: ₹113.00
2024-11: ₹112.50
2024-12: ₹113.00
2025-01: ₹107.40
2025-02: ₹105.00
2025-03: ₹125.40
2025-04: ₹118.95
2025-05: ₹124.10
2025-06: ₹125.30
2025-07: ₹140.00
2025-08: ₹162.00
2025-09: ₹158.00
2025-10: ₹161.90
2025-11: ₹155.00
2025-12: ₹148.55
2026-01: ₹184.95
2026-02: ₹185.00
2026-03: ₹212.00
2026-04: ₹232.55
2026-05: ₹240.00
2026-06: ₹273.85
2026-07: ₹274.65
2026-08: ₹297.00
2026-09: ₹280.00
2026-10: ₹308.00

Last 90 trading days

₹230₹258₹286₹315 May 20Jun 19Jul 20Aug 19Sep 24Oct 30
2026-05-20: ₹245.00
2026-05-22: ₹234.90
2026-05-26: ₹230.10
2026-06-01: ₹240.00
2026-06-03: ₹251.95
2026-06-05: ₹240.55
2026-06-09: ₹252.00
2026-06-11: ₹238.00
2026-06-17: ₹249.90
2026-06-19: ₹246.00
2026-06-23: ₹248.00
2026-06-29: ₹248.80
2026-07-01: ₹255.00
2026-07-03: ₹260.00
2026-07-07: ₹245.50
2026-07-09: ₹250.00
2026-07-14: ₹248.75
2026-07-16: ₹257.00
2026-07-20: ₹245.75
2026-07-22: ₹257.95
2026-07-29: ₹266.60
2026-07-31: ₹274.65
2026-08-04: ₹263.50
2026-08-06: ₹275.00
2026-08-11: ₹265.05
2026-08-13: ₹285.05
2026-08-17: ₹295.00
2026-08-19: ₹259.65
2026-08-21: ₹257.50
2026-08-25: ₹288.00
2026-08-28: ₹297.00
2026-09-02: ₹291.50
2026-09-04: ₹290.00
2026-09-08: ₹300.00
2026-09-10: ₹302.50
2026-09-17: ₹314.50
2026-09-24: ₹297.00
2026-09-28: ₹301.00
2026-09-30: ₹280.00
2026-10-05: ₹280.00
2026-10-12: ₹286.00
2026-10-19: ₹271.00
2026-10-23: ₹242.00
2026-10-27: ₹260.00
2026-10-29: ₹290.00
2026-10-30: ₹308.00
₹230₹258₹286₹315 May 20Jul 9Aug 28Oct 30
2026-05-20: ₹245.00
2026-05-22: ₹234.90
2026-05-26: ₹230.10
2026-06-01: ₹240.00
2026-06-03: ₹251.95
2026-06-05: ₹240.55
2026-06-09: ₹252.00
2026-06-11: ₹238.00
2026-06-17: ₹249.90
2026-06-19: ₹246.00
2026-06-23: ₹248.00
2026-06-29: ₹248.80
2026-07-01: ₹255.00
2026-07-03: ₹260.00
2026-07-07: ₹245.50
2026-07-09: ₹250.00
2026-07-14: ₹248.75
2026-07-16: ₹257.00
2026-07-20: ₹245.75
2026-07-22: ₹257.95
2026-07-29: ₹266.60
2026-07-31: ₹274.65
2026-08-04: ₹263.50
2026-08-06: ₹275.00
2026-08-11: ₹265.05
2026-08-13: ₹285.05
2026-08-17: ₹295.00
2026-08-19: ₹259.65
2026-08-21: ₹257.50
2026-08-25: ₹288.00
2026-08-28: ₹297.00
2026-09-02: ₹291.50
2026-09-04: ₹290.00
2026-09-08: ₹300.00
2026-09-10: ₹302.50
2026-09-17: ₹314.50
2026-09-24: ₹297.00
2026-09-28: ₹301.00
2026-09-30: ₹280.00
2026-10-05: ₹280.00
2026-10-12: ₹286.00
2026-10-19: ₹271.00
2026-10-23: ₹242.00
2026-10-27: ₹260.00
2026-10-29: ₹290.00
2026-10-30: ₹308.00

Drawdown from peak

0% -17% -34% Feb '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -17% -34% Feb '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-37.3% (2024-02 peak to 2024-07 low, recovered 2025-08)

-29.9% (2020-01 peak to 2022-10 low, recovered 2023-01)

-25.1% (2019-06 peak to 2019-08 low, recovered 2019-10)

Where does it rank among Process Industries peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Process Industries peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Process Industries sector page Watch it move against Process Industries in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−16.3%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like MAHICKRA CHEMICALS LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −39% to +46% vs the market, against −4% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (−12.7%, 80% range −16.5% to +2.2%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
DHRUV · Jan 2025: −76.4% vs market
PIGL · Dec 2024: −64.1% vs market
PRAMARA · Sep 2025: −61.2% vs market
KRITIKA · Apr 2024: −58.0% vs market
LOKESHMACH · Mar 2024: −57.5% vs market
DJML · Nov 2024: −55.4% vs market
PILITA · Apr 2025: −52.7% vs market
TERASOFT · Oct 2025: −46.3% vs market
PANSARI · Dec 2021: −44.0% vs market
ATALREAL · Oct 2025: −43.3% vs market
SHALBY · Oct 2023: −40.7% vs market
MAITREYA · Mar 2025: −39.9% vs market
S&SPOWER · Jan 2025: −39.8% vs market
MINDTECK · Dec 2021: −37.6% vs market
DUCOL · Oct 2025: −37.4% vs market
TPLPLASTEH · Jul 2024: −35.7% vs market
KILITCH · Nov 2023: −26.1% vs market
GANESHBE · Feb 2023: −21.5% vs market
CLEDUCATE · Aug 2022: −20.3% vs market
STERTOOLS · Jan 2023: −19.1% vs market
SILVERTUC · Nov 2023: −18.7% vs market
ORIENTBELL · Feb 2022: −18.1% vs market
KDDL · Oct 2023: −17.8% vs market
IRISDOREME · Feb 2023: −17.7% vs market
MBAPL · Mar 2020: −16.5% vs market
GRPLTD · Jun 2024: −16.0% vs market
ANNAPURNA · Nov 2023: −16.0% vs market
GREENPANEL · Oct 2021: −6.9% vs market
SOFTTECH · Apr 2024: −6.4% vs market
AVTNPL · May 2020: −5.7% vs market
IRIS · May 2024: +3.2% vs market
ASTRAMICRO · Jul 2022: +15.2% vs market
VADILALIND · Jun 2022: +16.3% vs market
BHANDARI · Nov 2021: +23.4% vs market
EIFFL · Jun 2025: +24.7% vs market
TDPOWERSYS · Apr 2023: +30.2% vs market
ICEMAKE · May 2023: +30.7% vs market
JASH · Jan 2023: +51.3% vs market
NEULANDLAB · Jul 2020: +62.5% vs market
KRISHNADEF · Aug 2023: +69.5% vs market
OLIL · Oct 2025: +71.2% vs market
SANGHVIMOV · May 2023: +72.0% vs market
ARTEMISMED · Nov 2022: +89.1% vs market
AXISCADES · Oct 2022: +95.5% vs market
MARINE · Dec 2023: +115.8% vs market
FOCUS · Dec 2022: +117.1% vs market
SHAILY · Aug 2024: +129.4% vs market
SOUTHWEST · Jan 2021: +159.9% vs market
SERVOTECH · Jan 2023: +167.0% vs market
APOLLO · Nov 2022: +296.7% vs market
Similar setups −16.3%All companies −3.6%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 6 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−16.3%
All companies' median
−3.6%
Beat the market
40% vs 46%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 36 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
DUCOL
Process Industries
Oct 2025 69x— +64%0% −37%
MARINE
Producer Manufacturing
Dec 2023 75x14% +215%0% +116%
ATALREAL
Consumer Durables
Oct 2025 73x— +108%0% −43%
SOUTHWEST
Energy Minerals
Jan 2021 42x8% +193%0% +160%
ICEMAKE
Producer Manufacturing
May 2023 79x17% +188%0% +31%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
KRITIKA
Producer Manufacturing
Apr 2024 103x12% +490%0% −58%
SANGHVIMOV
Industrial Services
May 2023 66x— +142%0% +72%
MBAPL
Process Industries
Mar 2020 13x14% +18%— −17%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: interest cover, P/S and drawdown from 12-month high. Not used (unavailable for this company): operating margin. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 5 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to MAHICKRA CHEMICALS LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (53 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1058.4x₹106 cr7.7%13.0%0.2x
2026-0953.1x₹106 cr7.7%13.0%0.2x
2026-0856.4x₹106 cr7.7%13.0%0.2x
2026-0752.1x₹106 cr7.7%13.0%0.2x
2026-0652.0x₹106 cr7.7%13.0%0.2x
2026-0577.2x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2026-0474.8x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2026-0368.2x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2026-0259.5x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2026-0159.5x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-1247.8x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-1149.8x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-1052.1x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-0950.8x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-0852.1x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-0745.0x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-0640.3x₹90 cr6.8%10.0%0.4x
2025-0594.0x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2025-0490.1x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2025-0395.0x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2025-0279.5x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2025-0181.4x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-1285.6x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-1185.2x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-1085.6x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-0983.3x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-0885.0x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-0778.8x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-0676.5x₹72 cr3.1%6.0%0.4x
2024-0527.9x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2024-0428.9x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2024-0330.3x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2024-0237.1x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2024-0133.9x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-1225.0x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-1124.3x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-1021.5x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-0922.5x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-0819.9x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-0720.6x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-0620.7x₹103 cr9.9%14.0%0.3x
2023-0520.8x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2023-0422.7x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2023-0323.8x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2023-0223.2x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2023-0124.4x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-1219.5x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-1117.2x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-1016.9x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-0917.7x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-0816.9x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-0718.2x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x
2022-0617.5x₹102 cr10.7%—0.3x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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