अApnaFunda

RAMA PHOSPHATES LTD (RAMAPHO)

Process Industries

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.59 / 100
Profitability 60Growth 54Balance sheet 63

Passes these screens: Value Pick

Share Price
₹103.06
P/E
6.8x
ROCE
15.0%
Market Cap
₹365 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹928 cr
P/S
0.4x
P/B
0.9x
ROE
12.7%
Operating Margin
12.0%
Debt / Equity
0.3x
Promoter Holding
75.0%
12M Momentum
-44.0%
P/E vs its own history17th percentilesince Jan '19
P/E vs Process Industries0.4xthe sector median

52-week range

₹96.80₹217.19
5% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
47.2%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
1.48

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
7.5x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
1.53x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-44%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 50 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 23.3x to 6.8x), which took 93 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: +50 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+50 ptsP/E change: -94 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-94 ptsShare count change: -0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -44% 1 year Net profit growth: +50 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+50 ptsP/E change: -94 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-94 ptsShare count change: -0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -44%
Net profit growth+50 ptsNet profit rose about 92%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-93 ptsThe P/E fell from 23.3x to 6.8x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
-7%share price, 3 yearsLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 26 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 9.6x to 6.8x), which took 33 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
3 years Net profit growth: +26 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+26 ptsP/E change: -33 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-33 ptsShare count change: +0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -7% 3 years Net profit growth: +26 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+26 ptsP/E change: -33 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-33 ptsShare count change: +0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -7%
Net profit growth+26 ptsNet profit rose about 31%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-33 ptsThe P/E fell from 9.6x to 6.8x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with UPL

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

6.8xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history17th percentileMedian 9.3x; usual range 5.8x to 34.1x since 2019-01.
Against Process Industries6.8x vs 18.0xBelow the Process Industries median.
4.4x25.2x45.9x66.7xJan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '264.4x25.2x45.9x66.7xJan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Process Industries is valued

What is the price implying?

~9%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 12.2x, the price would imply about 9.4%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Below the ₹1,000 cr market-cap floor used for the lists.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Process Industries The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 54% from the Nov 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Sep '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  3. Jun '26Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹893 cr.
  4. Jun '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  5. Jun '26Dividend payout cut from 6% to 2% of profit.
  6. Mar '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  7. Mar '26Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the bottom quartile).
  8. Oct '25Regained the 2022-08 peak, 16 months after the low.
Show 13 earlier events
  1. Sep '25Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  2. Jun '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the bottom quartile).
  3. Jun '25Started paying a dividend (payout 6% of profit).
  4. Mar '25EPS (TTM) turned positive.
  5. Mar '25P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (48.6x).
  6. Dec '24Moved into the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  7. Jun '24EPS (TTM) turned negative.
  8. Jun '24Fell 58% from the Aug 2022 peak to the Jun 2024 low.
  9. Jun '24Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  10. Jun '24Dividend payout cut from 4% to 0% of profit.
  11. Jun '23Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  12. Aug '22Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  13. Jun '19Dividend payout cut from 33% to 9% of profit.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

5 of 7 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance3%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 2.8%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate25%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 25.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion1.53xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 1.53x (cash from operations ₹55 cr, net profit ₹36 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow1 of 5 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 1. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-1 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 1 days (29 vs 30). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress30% of fixed assetsNear threshold

Capital work-in-progress is 30% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-6 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -6 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, institutional and promoter holdings were broadly unchanged.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters75.0%75.0%0.0 pts
FIIs0.0%0.2%+0.1 pts
DIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
Public and others25.0%24.8%-0.2 pts

Number of shareholders

16,155shareholders+4% since Dec '23
14k15k16k17k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 15,509
Mar '24: 15,222
Jun '24: 15,634
Sep '24: 15,037
Dec '24: 14,428
Mar '25: 15,662
Jun '25: 14,454
Sep '25: 13,915
Dec '25: 16,988
Mar '26: 16,325
Jun '26: 16,155
14k15k16k17k Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 15,509
Mar '24: 15,222
Jun '24: 15,634
Sep '24: 15,037
Dec '24: 14,428
Mar '25: 15,662
Jun '25: 14,454
Sep '25: 13,915
Dec '25: 16,988
Mar '26: 16,325
Jun '26: 16,155

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-57.7%recovered 2025-10
1-year volatility47.2%annualised

Monthly share price

₹26₹78₹131₹184 Jan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '26
2019-01: ₹29.40
2019-02: ₹25.60
2019-03: ₹28.38
2019-04: ₹28.98
2019-05: ₹30.75
2019-06: ₹31.42
2022-08: ₹164.68
2022-09: ₹152.85
2022-10: ₹142.78
2022-11: ₹123.32
2022-12: ₹139.12
2023-01: ₹115.48
2023-02: ₹96.78
2023-03: ₹87.35
2023-04: ₹104.10
2023-05: ₹89.85
2023-06: ₹121.20
2023-07: ₹130.22
2023-08: ₹125.12
2023-09: ₹116.38
2023-10: ₹110.80
2023-11: ₹105.48
2023-12: ₹106.40
2024-01: ₹113.88
2024-02: ₹93.22
2024-03: ₹80.30
2024-04: ₹89.85
2024-05: ₹81.02
2024-06: ₹92.80
2024-07: ₹100.45
2024-08: ₹98.94
2024-09: ₹103.24
2024-10: ₹103.82
2024-11: ₹102.42
2024-12: ₹95.62
2025-01: ₹114.26
2025-02: ₹87.27
2025-03: ₹83.18
2025-04: ₹113.62
2025-05: ₹114.02
2025-06: ₹126.53
2025-07: ₹160.97
2025-08: ₹142.25
2025-09: ₹150.34
2025-10: ₹184.07
2025-11: ₹176.25
2025-12: ₹160.47
2026-01: ₹153.03
2026-02: ₹127.01
2026-03: ₹104.24
2026-04: ₹138.29
2026-05: ₹122.86
2026-06: ₹126.64
2026-07: ₹128.48
2026-08: ₹123.36
2026-09: ₹120.09
2026-10: ₹103.06
₹26₹78₹131₹184 Jan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
2019-01: ₹29.40
2019-02: ₹25.60
2019-03: ₹28.38
2019-04: ₹28.98
2019-05: ₹30.75
2019-06: ₹31.42
2022-08: ₹164.68
2022-09: ₹152.85
2022-10: ₹142.78
2022-11: ₹123.32
2022-12: ₹139.12
2023-01: ₹115.48
2023-02: ₹96.78
2023-03: ₹87.35
2023-04: ₹104.10
2023-05: ₹89.85
2023-06: ₹121.20
2023-07: ₹130.22
2023-08: ₹125.12
2023-09: ₹116.38
2023-10: ₹110.80
2023-11: ₹105.48
2023-12: ₹106.40
2024-01: ₹113.88
2024-02: ₹93.22
2024-03: ₹80.30
2024-04: ₹89.85
2024-05: ₹81.02
2024-06: ₹92.80
2024-07: ₹100.45
2024-08: ₹98.94
2024-09: ₹103.24
2024-10: ₹103.82
2024-11: ₹102.42
2024-12: ₹95.62
2025-01: ₹114.26
2025-02: ₹87.27
2025-03: ₹83.18
2025-04: ₹113.62
2025-05: ₹114.02
2025-06: ₹126.53
2025-07: ₹160.97
2025-08: ₹142.25
2025-09: ₹150.34
2025-10: ₹184.07
2025-11: ₹176.25
2025-12: ₹160.47
2026-01: ₹153.03
2026-02: ₹127.01
2026-03: ₹104.24
2026-04: ₹138.29
2026-05: ₹122.86
2026-06: ₹126.64
2026-07: ₹128.48
2026-08: ₹123.36
2026-09: ₹120.09
2026-10: ₹103.06

Last 90 trading days

₹98₹110₹123₹135 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹135.05
2026-06-25: ₹129.72
2026-06-30: ₹126.64
2026-07-02: ₹125.59
2026-07-06: ₹126.48
2026-07-08: ₹123.39
2026-07-10: ₹125.13
2026-07-14: ₹123.30
2026-07-16: ₹123.78
2026-07-20: ₹124.22
2026-07-22: ₹124.93
2026-07-24: ₹131.10
2026-07-28: ₹128.62
2026-07-30: ₹125.86
2026-08-03: ₹130.91
2026-08-05: ₹124.47
2026-08-07: ₹123.30
2026-08-11: ₹122.52
2026-08-13: ₹120.05
2026-08-17: ₹121.52
2026-08-19: ₹121.43
2026-08-21: ₹121.05
2026-08-25: ₹124.98
2026-08-27: ₹126.56
2026-08-31: ₹123.36
2026-09-02: ₹122.93
2026-09-04: ₹123.48
2026-09-08: ₹124.74
2026-09-10: ₹123.57
2026-09-15: ₹118.86
2026-09-17: ₹116.90
2026-09-21: ₹120.98
2026-09-23: ₹123.21
2026-09-25: ₹122.25
2026-09-29: ₹120.33
2026-10-01: ₹120.05
2026-10-06: ₹117.99
2026-10-08: ₹110.09
2026-10-12: ₹109.84
2026-10-14: ₹109.59
2026-10-16: ₹108.79
2026-10-21: ₹101.77
2026-10-23: ₹97.83
2026-10-27: ₹104.21
2026-10-29: ₹103.65
2026-10-30: ₹103.06
₹98₹110₹123₹135 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹135.05
2026-06-25: ₹129.72
2026-06-30: ₹126.64
2026-07-02: ₹125.59
2026-07-06: ₹126.48
2026-07-08: ₹123.39
2026-07-10: ₹125.13
2026-07-14: ₹123.30
2026-07-16: ₹123.78
2026-07-20: ₹124.22
2026-07-22: ₹124.93
2026-07-24: ₹131.10
2026-07-28: ₹128.62
2026-07-30: ₹125.86
2026-08-03: ₹130.91
2026-08-05: ₹124.47
2026-08-07: ₹123.30
2026-08-11: ₹122.52
2026-08-13: ₹120.05
2026-08-17: ₹121.52
2026-08-19: ₹121.43
2026-08-21: ₹121.05
2026-08-25: ₹124.98
2026-08-27: ₹126.56
2026-08-31: ₹123.36
2026-09-02: ₹122.93
2026-09-04: ₹123.48
2026-09-08: ₹124.74
2026-09-10: ₹123.57
2026-09-15: ₹118.86
2026-09-17: ₹116.90
2026-09-21: ₹120.98
2026-09-23: ₹123.21
2026-09-25: ₹122.25
2026-09-29: ₹120.33
2026-10-01: ₹120.05
2026-10-06: ₹117.99
2026-10-08: ₹110.09
2026-10-12: ₹109.84
2026-10-14: ₹109.59
2026-10-16: ₹108.79
2026-10-21: ₹101.77
2026-10-23: ₹97.83
2026-10-27: ₹104.21
2026-10-29: ₹103.65
2026-10-30: ₹103.06

Drawdown from peak

0% -27% -55% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -27% -55% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-57.7% (2022-08 peak to 2024-06 low, recovered 2025-10)

-53.6% (2025-11 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-20.2% (2019-01 peak to 2019-02 low, recovered 2019-05)

Where does it rank among Process Industries peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Process Industries peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Process Industries sector page Watch it move against Process Industries in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

+6.0%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like RAMA PHOSPHATES LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −12% to +51% vs the market, against 0% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+6.0%, 80% range −5.7% to +13.9%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
DHAMPURSUG · Feb 2024: −48.0% vs market
AGARIND · Aug 2025: −45.7% vs market
BCLIND · Jan 2025: −44.0% vs market
SAHYADRI · Apr 2024: −29.0% vs market
MAGADSUGAR · Dec 2024: −25.3% vs market
MANINDS · Dec 2021: −25.1% vs market
GTPL · Aug 2024: −24.5% vs market
JAGRAN · Nov 2024: −19.9% vs market
TNPETRO · Jun 2023: −17.1% vs market
SUKHJITS · Feb 2024: −15.9% vs market
GNA · May 2024: −15.2% vs market
BODALCHEM · Mar 2023: −13.6% vs market
UNIVCABLES · Feb 2021: −12.2% vs market
NIPPOBATRY · May 2022: −11.9% vs market
SHREYANIND · Nov 2020: −11.7% vs market
RANEHOLDIN · May 2020: −11.3% vs market
PIONEEREMB · Mar 2023: −9.2% vs market
KCP · Jul 2022: −8.5% vs market
SUTLEJTEX · Feb 2023: −7.3% vs market
MONTECARLO · Feb 2024: −6.5% vs market
NCLIND · Jul 2022: −3.9% vs market
VETO · Dec 2023: −3.9% vs market
PENIND · May 2020: −2.5% vs market
JAYAGROGN · Mar 2023: −1.3% vs market
SPORTKING · Jan 2024: +5.6% vs market
IGPL · Nov 2023: +6.3% vs market
PARACABLES · Nov 2020: +9.3% vs market
EVERESTIND · Feb 2020: +9.9% vs market
KANPRPLA · Nov 2022: +12.8% vs market
TIMETECHNO · Dec 2020: +14.3% vs market
DICIND · Apr 2022: +16.4% vs market
NAVA · May 2020: +32.0% vs market
LTFOODS · Aug 2021: +32.3% vs market
STARPAPER · Dec 2021: +42.4% vs market
NRAIL · Mar 2023: +42.7% vs market
SPAL · Jan 2023: +44.6% vs market
SARLAPOLY · May 2023: +50.3% vs market
PTL · Apr 2021: +51.1% vs market
AXISCADES · Feb 2021: +52.2% vs market
SUNFLAG · Dec 2021: +56.1% vs market
GOODLUCK · Feb 2025: +57.3% vs market
TALBROAUTO · Mar 2020: +61.4% vs market
SHREEPUSHK · Mar 2024: +61.8% vs market
CLEDUCATE · Mar 2020: +64.1% vs market
JKIL · Oct 2021: +73.0% vs market
PDMJEPAPER · Sep 2020: +74.9% vs market
ZEEMEDIA · Aug 2021: +90.4% vs market
DATAMATICS · Jun 2020: +145.5% vs market
KIRLOSENG · Apr 2022: +145.7% vs market
MIRZAINT · Apr 2021: +276.9% vs market
Similar setups +6.0%All companies 0%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+6.0%
All companies' median
0%
Beat the market
52% vs 50%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 34 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
DHAMPURSUG
Process Industries
Feb 2024 10x15% +15%−25% −48%
MIRZAINT
Consumer Non-Durables
Apr 2021 7x12% +9%−23% +277%
MONTECARLO
Consumer Non-Durables
Feb 2024 9x20% +10%−31% −7%
AXISCADES
Commercial Services
Feb 2021 6x15% −9%−32% +52%
IGPL
Process Industries
Nov 2023 7x21% −16%−21% +6%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
NIPPOBATRY
Producer Manufacturing
May 2022 9x16% −11%−40% −12%
SUKHJITS
Consumer Non-Durables
Feb 2024 12x15% +20%−20% −16%
PENIND
Non-Energy Minerals
May 2020 3x17% −60%−61% −3%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, ROCE and P/S. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to RAMA PHOSPHATES LTD. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (94 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-106.8x₹928 cr12.7%15.0%0.3x
2026-097.9x₹928 cr12.5%15.0%0.3x
2026-088.3x₹893 cr12.3%15.0%0.3x
2026-078.6x₹893 cr12.3%15.0%0.3x
2026-068.5x₹893 cr12.3%15.0%0.3x
2026-058.3x₹875 cr14.0%8.0%0.3x
2026-049.3x₹875 cr14.0%8.0%0.3x
2026-037.0x₹875 cr14.0%8.0%0.3x
2026-0210.7x₹817 cr11.3%8.0%0.3x
2026-0112.8x₹817 cr11.3%8.0%0.3x
2025-1213.5x₹817 cr11.3%8.0%0.3x
2025-1122.3x₹780 cr7.5%8.0%0.3x
2025-1023.3x₹780 cr7.5%8.0%0.3x
2025-0919.0x₹780 cr7.5%8.0%0.3x
2025-0836.9x₹744 cr3.8%8.0%0.3x
2025-0741.8x₹744 cr3.8%8.0%0.3x
2025-0632.9x₹744 cr3.8%8.0%0.3x
2025-0566.7x₹729 cr2.0%-6.0%0.4x
2025-0466.4x₹729 cr2.0%-6.0%0.4x
2025-0348.6x₹729 cr2.0%-6.0%0.4x
2025-02—₹665 cr-7.6%-6.0%0.4x
2025-01—₹665 cr-7.6%-6.0%0.4x
2024-12—₹665 cr-7.6%-6.0%0.4x
2024-11—₹627 cr-8.2%-6.0%0.4x
2024-10—₹627 cr-8.2%-6.0%0.4x
2024-09—₹627 cr-8.2%-6.0%0.4x
2024-08—₹602 cr-8.8%-6.0%0.4x
2024-07—₹602 cr-8.8%-6.0%0.4x
2024-06—₹602 cr-8.8%-6.0%0.4x
2024-057.0x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2024-047.8x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2024-036.9x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2024-028.1x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2024-019.9x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-129.2x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-119.1x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-109.6x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-0910.1x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-0810.8x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-0711.3x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-0610.5x₹875 cr13.3%17.0%0.4x
2023-054.5x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2023-045.3x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2023-034.4x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2023-024.9x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2023-015.8x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-127.0x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-116.2x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-107.2x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-097.7x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-088.3x₹878 cr25.9%39.0%0.2x
2022-07—————
2022-06—————
2022-05—————
2022-04—————
2022-03—————
2022-02—————
2022-01—————
2021-12—————
2021-11—————
2021-10—————
2021-09—————
2021-08—————
2021-07—————
2021-06—————
2021-05—————
2021-04—————
2021-03—————
2021-02—————
2021-01—————
2020-12—————
2020-11—————
2020-10—————
2020-09—————
2020-08—————
2020-07—————
2020-06—————
2020-05—————
2020-04—————
2020-03—————
2020-02—————
2020-01—————
2019-12—————
2019-11—————
2019-10—————
2019-09—————
2019-08—————
2019-07—————
2019-065.7x₹607 cr12.5%21.0%0.2x
2019-0520.2x₹375 cr3.7%9.0%0.4x
2019-0419.1x₹375 cr3.7%9.0%0.4x
2019-0318.7x₹375 cr3.7%9.0%0.4x
2019-0216.8x₹375 cr3.7%9.0%0.4x
2019-0119.3x₹375 cr3.7%9.0%0.4x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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