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RAJ OIL MILLS LIMITED (ROML)

Process Industries

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.38 / 100
Profitability 51Growth 63Balance sheet 0

Passes these screens: Quality Compounder

Share Price
₹39.50
P/E
27.1x
ROCE
19.0%
Market Cap
₹63 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹153 cr
P/S
0.4x
P/B
31.6x
ROE
116.8%
Operating Margin
5.2%
Debt / Equity
13.0x
Promoter Holding
75.0%
12M Momentum
-23.2%
P/E vs its own history11th percentilesince Oct '20
P/E vs Process Industries1.5xthe sector median

52-week range

₹35.11₹60.50
17% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
36.2%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.78

Balance sheet & cash

Debt service
no meaningful debt
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.70x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-23%share price, 1 yearEarnings and multiple

Both mattered.

  • Per-share earnings took off 10 points and the multiple took off 13 points (P/E 31.4x to 27.1x).
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: -10 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-10 ptsP/E change: -13 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-13 pts -23% 1 year Net profit growth: -10 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-10 ptsP/E change: -13 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-13 pts -23%
Net profit growth-10 ptsNet profit fell about 11%, which lowers the price.
P/E change-13 ptsThe P/E fell from 31.4x to 27.1x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
-14%share price, 3 yearsLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 55 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 57.0x to 27.1x), which took 69 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
3 years Net profit growth: +55 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+55 ptsP/E change: -69 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-69 pts -14% 3 years Net profit growth: +55 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+55 ptsP/E change: -69 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-69 pts -14%
Net profit growth+55 ptsNet profit rose about 80%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-69 ptsThe P/E fell from 57.0x to 27.1x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
-33%share price, 5 yearsLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 6 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 43.5x to 27.1x), which took 39 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
5 years Net profit growth: +6 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+6 ptsP/E change: -39 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-39 pts -33% 5 years Net profit growth: +6 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).P/E change: -39 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-39 pts -33%
Net profit growth+6 ptsNet profit rose about 7%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-39 ptsThe P/E fell from 43.5x to 27.1x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with PATANJALI FOODS

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

27.1xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history11th percentileMedian 50.4x; usual range 27.1x to 127.7x since 2020-10.
Against Process Industries27.1x vs 18.0xAbove the Process Industries median.
10.8x89.7x168.7x247.6xOct '20Jan '22Apr '23Jul '24Oct '25Oct '2610.8x89.7x168.7x247.6xOct '20Oct '22Oct '24Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Process Industries is valued

What is the price implying?

~23%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 39.4x, the price would imply about 23.4%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Process Industries The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Sep '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  2. Sep '26Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the top quartile).
  3. Aug '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (27.3x).
  4. Jun '26Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  5. Mar '26Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹142 cr.
  6. Mar '26Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  7. Sep '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (29.6x).
  8. Jun '25Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
Show 10 earlier events
  1. Jun '25Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  2. Dec '24Moved into the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  3. Sep '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (244.8x).
  4. Sep '24Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  5. Jun '23Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹140 cr.
  6. Jun '23Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  7. Mar '23Fell 71% from the Feb 2021 peak to the Mar 2023 low.
  8. Jun '22Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  9. Jun '22Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  10. Jun '21Moved into the top quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the bottom quartile).

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 7 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 2 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance1%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 0.8%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate3%Beyond threshold

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 3.3%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.70xNear threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.70x (cash from operations ₹7 cr, net profit ₹10 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow1 of 5 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 1. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-4 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 4 days (25 vs 29). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress0% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 0% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-10 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -10 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, institutional and promoter holdings were broadly unchanged.
  • The number of shareholders fell from 20,969 to 19,711 (-6%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters75.0%75.0%0.0 pts
FIIs———
DIIs———
Public and others25.0%25.0%0.0 pts

Number of shareholders

19,711shareholders-6% since Dec '23
20k20k21k21k Dec '23Jun '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26Jun '26
Dec '23: 20,969
Mar '24: 20,551
Jun '24: 20,735
Sep '24: 20,355
Mar '25: 19,977
Jun '25: 20,337
Sep '25: 20,179
Dec '25: 20,288
Mar '26: 20,010
Jun '26: 19,711
20k20k21k21k Dec '23Sep '24Sep '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 20,969
Mar '24: 20,551
Jun '24: 20,735
Sep '24: 20,355
Mar '25: 19,977
Jun '25: 20,337
Sep '25: 20,179
Dec '25: 20,288
Mar '26: 20,010
Jun '26: 19,711

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-70.9%not yet recovered
1-year volatility36.2%annualised

Monthly share price

₹5₹35₹64₹93 Oct '20Jan '22Apr '23Jul '24Oct '25Oct '26
2020-10: ₹5.30
2020-11: ₹12.35
2020-12: ₹35.25
2021-01: ₹93.05
2021-02: ₹74.70
2021-03: ₹65.05
2021-04: ₹80.35
2021-05: ₹75.80
2021-06: ₹65.55
2021-07: ₹56.30
2021-08: ₹55.75
2021-09: ₹68.05
2021-10: ₹59.10
2021-11: ₹53.65
2021-12: ₹55.85
2022-01: ₹53.00
2022-02: ₹45.20
2022-03: ₹47.65
2022-04: ₹60.85
2022-05: ₹47.40
2022-06: ₹45.10
2022-07: ₹43.90
2022-08: ₹44.50
2022-09: ₹42.10
2022-10: ₹41.75
2022-11: ₹43.15
2022-12: ₹43.85
2023-01: ₹41.00
2023-02: ₹44.85
2023-03: ₹37.90
2023-04: ₹40.55
2023-05: ₹38.00
2023-06: ₹41.30
2023-07: ₹52.10
2023-08: ₹42.25
2023-09: ₹45.20
2023-10: ₹46.15
2023-11: ₹50.00
2023-12: ₹47.55
2024-01: ₹49.10
2024-02: ₹47.20
2024-03: ₹42.95
2024-04: ₹71.15
2024-05: ₹55.85
2024-06: ₹52.00
2024-07: ₹52.41
2024-08: ₹55.35
2024-09: ₹53.85
2024-10: ₹50.47
2024-11: ₹54.47
2024-12: ₹52.66
2025-01: ₹50.58
2025-02: ₹47.60
2025-03: ₹42.31
2025-04: ₹43.93
2025-05: ₹47.35
2025-06: ₹58.12
2025-07: ₹50.73
2025-08: ₹45.74
2025-09: ₹48.50
2025-10: ₹51.46
2025-11: ₹50.66
2025-12: ₹50.60
2026-01: ₹44.74
2026-02: ₹43.67
2026-03: ₹36.32
2026-04: ₹45.15
2026-05: ₹46.10
2026-06: ₹45.99
2026-07: ₹44.41
2026-08: ₹42.62
2026-09: ₹43.38
2026-10: ₹39.50
₹5₹35₹64₹93 Oct '20Oct '22Oct '24Oct '26
2020-10: ₹5.30
2020-11: ₹12.35
2020-12: ₹35.25
2021-01: ₹93.05
2021-02: ₹74.70
2021-03: ₹65.05
2021-04: ₹80.35
2021-05: ₹75.80
2021-06: ₹65.55
2021-07: ₹56.30
2021-08: ₹55.75
2021-09: ₹68.05
2021-10: ₹59.10
2021-11: ₹53.65
2021-12: ₹55.85
2022-01: ₹53.00
2022-02: ₹45.20
2022-03: ₹47.65
2022-04: ₹60.85
2022-05: ₹47.40
2022-06: ₹45.10
2022-07: ₹43.90
2022-08: ₹44.50
2022-09: ₹42.10
2022-10: ₹41.75
2022-11: ₹43.15
2022-12: ₹43.85
2023-01: ₹41.00
2023-02: ₹44.85
2023-03: ₹37.90
2023-04: ₹40.55
2023-05: ₹38.00
2023-06: ₹41.30
2023-07: ₹52.10
2023-08: ₹42.25
2023-09: ₹45.20
2023-10: ₹46.15
2023-11: ₹50.00
2023-12: ₹47.55
2024-01: ₹49.10
2024-02: ₹47.20
2024-03: ₹42.95
2024-04: ₹71.15
2024-05: ₹55.85
2024-06: ₹52.00
2024-07: ₹52.41
2024-08: ₹55.35
2024-09: ₹53.85
2024-10: ₹50.47
2024-11: ₹54.47
2024-12: ₹52.66
2025-01: ₹50.58
2025-02: ₹47.60
2025-03: ₹42.31
2025-04: ₹43.93
2025-05: ₹47.35
2025-06: ₹58.12
2025-07: ₹50.73
2025-08: ₹45.74
2025-09: ₹48.50
2025-10: ₹51.46
2025-11: ₹50.66
2025-12: ₹50.60
2026-01: ₹44.74
2026-02: ₹43.67
2026-03: ₹36.32
2026-04: ₹45.15
2026-05: ₹46.10
2026-06: ₹45.99
2026-07: ₹44.41
2026-08: ₹42.62
2026-09: ₹43.38
2026-10: ₹39.50

Last 90 trading days

₹39₹42₹44₹47 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹46.78
2026-06-25: ₹46.73
2026-06-30: ₹45.99
2026-07-02: ₹46.22
2026-07-06: ₹45.34
2026-07-08: ₹45.34
2026-07-10: ₹45.35
2026-07-14: ₹44.90
2026-07-16: ₹45.61
2026-07-20: ₹45.02
2026-07-22: ₹44.68
2026-07-24: ₹44.51
2026-07-28: ₹44.62
2026-07-30: ₹45.19
2026-08-03: ₹45.00
2026-08-05: ₹44.55
2026-08-07: ₹44.81
2026-08-11: ₹44.25
2026-08-13: ₹45.48
2026-08-17: ₹44.09
2026-08-19: ₹43.93
2026-08-21: ₹43.60
2026-08-25: ₹42.72
2026-08-27: ₹40.61
2026-08-31: ₹42.62
2026-09-02: ₹42.13
2026-09-04: ₹42.00
2026-09-08: ₹42.26
2026-09-10: ₹42.13
2026-09-15: ₹43.00
2026-09-17: ₹41.42
2026-09-21: ₹40.71
2026-09-23: ₹41.87
2026-09-25: ₹42.79
2026-09-29: ₹41.91
2026-10-01: ₹43.34
2026-10-06: ₹42.99
2026-10-08: ₹41.16
2026-10-12: ₹42.00
2026-10-14: ₹40.40
2026-10-16: ₹41.11
2026-10-21: ₹39.80
2026-10-23: ₹39.27
2026-10-27: ₹41.17
2026-10-29: ₹40.78
2026-10-30: ₹39.50
₹39₹42₹44₹47 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹46.78
2026-06-25: ₹46.73
2026-06-30: ₹45.99
2026-07-02: ₹46.22
2026-07-06: ₹45.34
2026-07-08: ₹45.34
2026-07-10: ₹45.35
2026-07-14: ₹44.90
2026-07-16: ₹45.61
2026-07-20: ₹45.02
2026-07-22: ₹44.68
2026-07-24: ₹44.51
2026-07-28: ₹44.62
2026-07-30: ₹45.19
2026-08-03: ₹45.00
2026-08-05: ₹44.55
2026-08-07: ₹44.81
2026-08-11: ₹44.25
2026-08-13: ₹45.48
2026-08-17: ₹44.09
2026-08-19: ₹43.93
2026-08-21: ₹43.60
2026-08-25: ₹42.72
2026-08-27: ₹40.61
2026-08-31: ₹42.62
2026-09-02: ₹42.13
2026-09-04: ₹42.00
2026-09-08: ₹42.26
2026-09-10: ₹42.13
2026-09-15: ₹43.00
2026-09-17: ₹41.42
2026-09-21: ₹40.71
2026-09-23: ₹41.87
2026-09-25: ₹42.79
2026-09-29: ₹41.91
2026-10-01: ₹43.34
2026-10-06: ₹42.99
2026-10-08: ₹41.16
2026-10-12: ₹42.00
2026-10-14: ₹40.40
2026-10-16: ₹41.11
2026-10-21: ₹39.80
2026-10-23: ₹39.27
2026-10-27: ₹41.17
2026-10-29: ₹40.78
2026-10-30: ₹39.50

Drawdown from peak

0% -35% -71% Oct '20Oct '23Oct '26 0% -35% -71% Oct '20Oct '23Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-70.9% (2021-02 peak to 2023-03 low, not yet recovered)

Where does it rank among Process Industries peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Process Industries peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Process Industries sector page Watch it move against Process Industries in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−0.8%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like RAJ OIL MILLS LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −18% to +65% vs the market, against −7% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+6.5%, 80% range −3.6% to +25.3%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
CELEBRITY · Mar 2024: −46.9% vs market
SARVESHWAR · Jun 2025: −46.6% vs market
RBS · Oct 2025: −37.4% vs market
BEDMUTHA · Apr 2025: −35.4% vs market
DYNAMATECH · Jan 2020: −33.0% vs market
RELCHEMQ · Apr 2025: −32.9% vs market
MADRASFERT · Jul 2025: −32.1% vs market
AMBICAAGAR · Dec 2024: −24.8% vs market
WHEELS · May 2023: −24.6% vs market
HISARMETAL · Oct 2025: −20.6% vs market
DGCONTENT · Oct 2024: −20.4% vs market
BSL · Sep 2024: −20.0% vs market
KHADIM · Apr 2024: −18.2% vs market
JAYSREETEA · May 2022: −16.5% vs market
INSPIRISYS · Nov 2024: −16.1% vs market
GEEKAYWIRE · Jun 2021: −14.8% vs market
MUKTAARTS · May 2023: −14.7% vs market
RITCO · Sep 2024: −14.2% vs market
EMAMIPAP · Jun 2025: −13.1% vs market
UNIVASTU · Jul 2020: −10.0% vs market
BBTCL · Jan 2025: −8.7% vs market
DOLLEX · Jan 2025: −8.0% vs market
ARIHANTSUP · Mar 2020: −5.9% vs market
HNDFDS · Dec 2024: −4.9% vs market
S&SPOWER · Feb 2025: −4.3% vs market
BALPHARMA · Oct 2023: +2.6% vs market
SALONA · May 2025: +4.8% vs market
GOACARBON · Oct 2021: +7.4% vs market
MEGASTAR · Sep 2025: +11.5% vs market
UGARSUGAR · Nov 2020: +25.8% vs market
SCML · Apr 2025: +27.5% vs market
RANEHOLDIN · Aug 2023: +35.0% vs market
MANOMAY · Sep 2025: +41.0% vs market
GOODLUCK · Jul 2022: +43.8% vs market
RML · Oct 2025: +55.4% vs market
SHERA · Sep 2025: +57.5% vs market
DPABHUSHAN · Nov 2022: +57.9% vs market
HITECH · Mar 2022: +66.9% vs market
THANGAMAYL · Apr 2023: +71.7% vs market
REMSONSIND · Aug 2022: +75.6% vs market
SUMIT · Mar 2024: +76.2% vs market
IRISDOREME · Mar 2021: +78.5% vs market
JAIPURKURT · Mar 2021: +80.1% vs market
SHREERAMA · Jul 2020: +91.5% vs market
TEMBO · Mar 2024: +97.5% vs market
LUMAXIND · Jan 2025: +111.2% vs market
PDSL · Sep 2020: +141.4% vs market
CANTABIL · May 2021: +165.6% vs market
SBC · Jun 2025: +181.3% vs market
BAHETI · Mar 2024: +189.8% vs market
Similar setups −0.8%All companies −7.3%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 5 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−0.8%
All companies' median
−7.3%
Beat the market
50% vs 42%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 32 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
BAHETI
Producer Manufacturing
Mar 2024 38x15% +119%−13% +190%
BBTCL
Process Industries
Jan 2025 39x11% −26%−34% −9%
SCML
Producer Manufacturing
Apr 2025 18x13% −12%−30% +28%
UNIVASTU
Industrial Services
Jul 2020 26x20% −17%— −10%
REMSONSIND
Producer Manufacturing
Aug 2022 23x12% +7%−14% +76%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
MUKTAARTS
Technology Services
May 2023 19x14% −6%−20% −15%
MADRASFERT
Process Industries
Jul 2025 23x16% −22%−22% −32%
TEMBO
Producer Manufacturing
Mar 2024 48x18% +26%−19% +98%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high and P/S. Not used (unavailable for this company): interest cover. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to RAJ OIL MILLS LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (73 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1027.1x₹153 cr116.8%19.0%13.0x
2026-0929.7x₹153 cr116.8%19.0%13.0x
2026-0827.3x₹151 cr124.8%19.0%13.0x
2026-0728.5x₹151 cr124.8%19.0%13.0x
2026-0629.5x₹151 cr124.8%19.0%13.0x
2026-0525.2x₹142 cr—14.0%—
2026-0424.7x₹142 cr—14.0%—
2026-0319.8x₹142 cr—14.0%—
2026-0224.4x₹137 cr—14.0%—
2026-0125.0x₹137 cr—14.0%—
2025-1228.3x₹137 cr—14.0%—
2025-1130.9x₹127 cr—14.0%—
2025-1031.4x₹127 cr—14.0%—
2025-0929.6x₹127 cr—14.0%—
2025-0850.3x₹114 cr—14.0%—
2025-0755.7x₹114 cr—14.0%—
2025-0663.9x₹114 cr—14.0%—
2025-0594.7x₹112 cr—11.0%—
2025-0487.9x₹112 cr—11.0%—
2025-0384.6x₹112 cr—11.0%—
2025-0297.1x₹118 cr—11.0%—
2025-01103.2x₹118 cr—11.0%—
2024-12107.5x₹118 cr—11.0%—
2024-11247.6x₹119 cr—11.0%—
2024-10229.4x₹119 cr—11.0%—
2024-09244.8x₹119 cr—11.0%—
2024-0897.1x₹125 cr—11.0%—
2024-0791.9x₹125 cr—11.0%—
2024-0691.2x₹125 cr—11.0%—
2024-0569.0x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2024-0487.8x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2024-0353.0x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2024-0258.3x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2024-0160.6x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-1258.7x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-1161.7x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-1057.0x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-0955.8x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-0852.2x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-0764.3x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-0651.0x₹140 cr—15.0%—
2023-0543.7x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2023-0446.6x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2023-0343.6x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2023-0251.6x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2023-0147.1x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-1250.4x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-1149.6x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-1048.0x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-0948.4x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-0851.1x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-0750.5x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-0651.8x₹119 cr—15.0%—
2022-0534.9x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2022-0444.7x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2022-0335.0x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2022-0233.2x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2022-0139.0x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-1241.1x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-1139.4x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-1043.5x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-0950.0x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-0841.0x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-0741.4x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-0648.2x₹104 cr—24.0%—
2021-05154.7x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2021-04164.0x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2021-03132.8x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2021-02152.4x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2021-01189.9x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2020-1271.9x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2020-1125.2x₹83 cr—5.0%—
2020-1010.8x₹83 cr—5.0%—

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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