अApnaFunda

POWER AND INSTRU GUJARAT LTD (PIGL)

Utilities

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.74 / 100
Profitability 50Growth 89Balance sheet 84

Passes these screens: Value Pick

Share Price
₹91.61
P/E
12.1x
ROCE
15.0%
Market Cap
₹194 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹226 cr
P/S
0.9x
P/B
1.3x
ROE
10.5%
Operating Margin
10.3%
Debt / Equity
0.2x
Promoter Holding
50.7%
12M Momentum
-40.8%
P/E vs its own history6th percentilesince Jun '22
P/E vs Utilities0.5xthe sector median

52-week range

₹85.16₹165.11
8% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
52.7%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.87

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
4.8x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
-1.12x
low
Share count, 1Y
+23.5%

Was the rally earned?

-41%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 1 point, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 20.6x to 12.1x), which took 41 points back.
  • The share count rose 21%.
1 year Net profit growth: +16 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+16 ptsP/E change: -42 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-42 ptsShare count change: -15 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-15 pts -41% 1 year Net profit growth: +16 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+16 ptsP/E change: -42 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-42 ptsShare count change: -15 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-15 pts -41%
Net profit growth+16 ptsNet profit rose about 22%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-41 ptsThe P/E fell from 20.6x to 12.1x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-15 ptsShare count rose 21%, which lowers the price.
+124%share price, 3 yearsLower P/E held it back

Mostly yes, with a catch.

  • Per-share earnings added 150 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 14.3x to 12.1x), which took 26 points back.
  • The share count rose 62%.
3 years Net profit growth: +223 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+223 ptsP/E change: -26 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.Share count change: -74 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-74 pts +124% 3 years Net profit growth: +223 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+223 ptsP/E change: -26 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.Share count change: -74 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.-74 pts +124%
Net profit growth+223 ptsNet profit rose about 327%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-26 ptsThe P/E fell from 14.3x to 12.1x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-74 ptsShare count rose 62%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with ADANI POWER

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

12.1xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history6th percentileMedian 18.3x; usual range 13.0x to 32.4x since 2022-06.
Against Utilities12.1x vs 25.5xBelow the Utilities median.
11.9x26.9x41.9x56.9xJun '22May '23Apr '24Mar '25Feb '26Oct '2611.9x26.9x41.9x56.9xJun '22Dec '23Jun '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Utilities is valued

What is the price implying?

~17%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 23.1x, the price would imply about 16.7%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Utilities The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 79% from the Jan 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Sep '26Slipped to the bottom quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  3. Aug '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (13.0x).
  4. Jul '26Share count is up 23.5% over 12 months.
  5. Jun '26Promoter holding rose 4.4 pts to 50.7% (largest rise since 2025-06).
  6. Jun '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  7. Jun '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  8. Jun '26Dividend payout cut from 3% to 0% of profit.
Show 22 earlier events
  1. Mar '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  2. Mar '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (12.8x).
  3. Mar '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  4. Dec '25Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the top quartile).
  5. Sep '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  6. Jun '25Promoter holding rose 4.8 pts to 45.7%.
  7. Jun '25Share count is up 30.8% over 12 months.
  8. Mar '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  9. Jan '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.29x.
  10. Dec '24Promoter holding fell 11.1 pts to 41.0%.
  11. Sep '24Slipped to the bottom quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  12. Aug '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (36.5x).
  13. Jul '24Regained the 2023-05 peak, 12 months after the low.
  14. Jun '24Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  15. Jun '24Moved into the top quartile of Utilities on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  16. Jun '24Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.29x.
  17. Jul '23Fell 58% from the May 2023 peak to the Jul 2023 low.
  18. Jun '23Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹94 cr.
  19. Jun '23Started paying a dividend (payout 7% of profit).
  20. Jun '23Share count is up 44.4% over 12 months.
  21. May '23Regained the 2021-08 peak, 6 months after the low.
  22. Nov '22Fell 55% from the Aug 2021 peak to the Nov 2022 low.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

5 of 7 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance9%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 8.6%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate24%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 24.1%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion-1.12xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -1.12x (cash from operations ₹-37 cr, net profit ₹33 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-64 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 64 days (70 vs 134). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress7% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 7% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-68 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -68 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, promoters trimmed 1.4 pts; DIIs added 0.8 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 2,567 to 10,812 (+321%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters52.1%50.7%-1.4 pts
FIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
DIIs0.0%0.8%+0.8 pts
Public and others47.9%48.5%+0.6 pts

Number of shareholders

10,812shareholders+321% since Dec '23
3k5k8k11k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 2,567
Mar '24: 4,174
Jun '24: 4,561
Sep '24: 4,232
Dec '24: 6,442
Mar '25: 7,498
Jun '25: 8,219
Sep '25: 9,333
Dec '25: 10,268
Mar '26: 10,448
Jun '26: 10,812
3k5k8k11k Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 2,567
Mar '24: 4,174
Jun '24: 4,561
Sep '24: 4,232
Dec '24: 6,442
Mar '25: 7,498
Jun '25: 8,219
Sep '25: 9,333
Dec '25: 10,268
Mar '26: 10,448
Jun '26: 10,812

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-78.7%not yet recovered
1-year volatility52.7%annualised

Monthly share price

₹38₹136₹235₹333 Jun '22May '23Apr '24Mar '25Feb '26Oct '26
2022-06: ₹46.25
2022-07: ₹44.40
2022-08: ₹43.70
2022-09: ₹40.10
2022-10: ₹40.00
2022-11: ₹61.95
2022-12: ₹56.85
2023-01: ₹67.00
2023-02: ₹69.90
2023-03: ₹59.90
2023-04: ₹65.40
2023-05: ₹75.45
2023-06: ₹41.80
2023-07: ₹41.45
2023-08: ₹38.00
2023-09: ₹44.10
2023-10: ₹40.95
2023-11: ₹41.35
2023-12: ₹52.30
2024-01: ₹70.40
2024-02: ₹71.30
2024-03: ₹67.00
2024-04: ₹74.35
2024-05: ₹68.65
2024-06: ₹76.01
2024-07: ₹112.63
2024-08: ₹170.59
2024-09: ₹180.24
2024-10: ₹218.81
2024-11: ₹304.94
2024-12: ₹333.20
2025-01: ₹301.35
2025-02: ₹185.20
2025-03: ₹170.94
2025-04: ₹164.74
2025-05: ₹171.91
2025-06: ₹137.68
2025-07: ₹130.55
2025-08: ₹156.06
2025-09: ₹169.80
2025-10: ₹154.83
2025-11: ₹151.85
2025-12: ₹126.25
2026-01: ₹108.30
2026-02: ₹103.98
2026-03: ₹97.40
2026-04: ₹111.49
2026-05: ₹108.30
2026-06: ₹113.82
2026-07: ₹104.32
2026-08: ₹100.16
2026-09: ₹96.34
2026-10: ₹91.61
₹38₹136₹235₹333 Jun '22Dec '23Jun '25Oct '26
2022-06: ₹46.25
2022-07: ₹44.40
2022-08: ₹43.70
2022-09: ₹40.10
2022-10: ₹40.00
2022-11: ₹61.95
2022-12: ₹56.85
2023-01: ₹67.00
2023-02: ₹69.90
2023-03: ₹59.90
2023-04: ₹65.40
2023-05: ₹75.45
2023-06: ₹41.80
2023-07: ₹41.45
2023-08: ₹38.00
2023-09: ₹44.10
2023-10: ₹40.95
2023-11: ₹41.35
2023-12: ₹52.30
2024-01: ₹70.40
2024-02: ₹71.30
2024-03: ₹67.00
2024-04: ₹74.35
2024-05: ₹68.65
2024-06: ₹76.01
2024-07: ₹112.63
2024-08: ₹170.59
2024-09: ₹180.24
2024-10: ₹218.81
2024-11: ₹304.94
2024-12: ₹333.20
2025-01: ₹301.35
2025-02: ₹185.20
2025-03: ₹170.94
2025-04: ₹164.74
2025-05: ₹171.91
2025-06: ₹137.68
2025-07: ₹130.55
2025-08: ₹156.06
2025-09: ₹169.80
2025-10: ₹154.83
2025-11: ₹151.85
2025-12: ₹126.25
2026-01: ₹108.30
2026-02: ₹103.98
2026-03: ₹97.40
2026-04: ₹111.49
2026-05: ₹108.30
2026-06: ₹113.82
2026-07: ₹104.32
2026-08: ₹100.16
2026-09: ₹96.34
2026-10: ₹91.61

Last 90 trading days

₹89₹98₹108₹118 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹114.47
2026-06-25: ₹112.70
2026-06-30: ₹113.82
2026-07-02: ₹113.16
2026-07-06: ₹113.99
2026-07-08: ₹107.11
2026-07-10: ₹114.24
2026-07-14: ₹110.08
2026-07-16: ₹112.98
2026-07-20: ₹111.16
2026-07-22: ₹109.30
2026-07-24: ₹105.29
2026-07-28: ₹106.62
2026-07-30: ₹102.23
2026-08-03: ₹110.83
2026-08-05: ₹108.53
2026-08-07: ₹112.26
2026-08-11: ₹110.33
2026-08-13: ₹107.18
2026-08-17: ₹104.62
2026-08-19: ₹105.00
2026-08-21: ₹103.72
2026-08-25: ₹102.63
2026-08-27: ₹101.85
2026-08-31: ₹100.16
2026-09-02: ₹99.28
2026-09-04: ₹98.78
2026-09-08: ₹96.13
2026-09-10: ₹104.11
2026-09-15: ₹99.54
2026-09-17: ₹99.76
2026-09-21: ₹101.05
2026-09-23: ₹99.92
2026-09-25: ₹100.47
2026-09-29: ₹96.92
2026-10-01: ₹93.87
2026-10-06: ₹98.42
2026-10-08: ₹96.22
2026-10-12: ₹94.38
2026-10-14: ₹92.11
2026-10-16: ₹94.52
2026-10-21: ₹95.11
2026-10-23: ₹88.64
2026-10-27: ₹90.06
2026-10-29: ₹96.61
2026-10-30: ₹91.61
₹89₹98₹108₹118 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹114.47
2026-06-25: ₹112.70
2026-06-30: ₹113.82
2026-07-02: ₹113.16
2026-07-06: ₹113.99
2026-07-08: ₹107.11
2026-07-10: ₹114.24
2026-07-14: ₹110.08
2026-07-16: ₹112.98
2026-07-20: ₹111.16
2026-07-22: ₹109.30
2026-07-24: ₹105.29
2026-07-28: ₹106.62
2026-07-30: ₹102.23
2026-08-03: ₹110.83
2026-08-05: ₹108.53
2026-08-07: ₹112.26
2026-08-11: ₹110.33
2026-08-13: ₹107.18
2026-08-17: ₹104.62
2026-08-19: ₹105.00
2026-08-21: ₹103.72
2026-08-25: ₹102.63
2026-08-27: ₹101.85
2026-08-31: ₹100.16
2026-09-02: ₹99.28
2026-09-04: ₹98.78
2026-09-08: ₹96.13
2026-09-10: ₹104.11
2026-09-15: ₹99.54
2026-09-17: ₹99.76
2026-09-21: ₹101.05
2026-09-23: ₹99.92
2026-09-25: ₹100.47
2026-09-29: ₹96.92
2026-10-01: ₹93.87
2026-10-06: ₹98.42
2026-10-08: ₹96.22
2026-10-12: ₹94.38
2026-10-14: ₹92.11
2026-10-16: ₹94.52
2026-10-21: ₹95.11
2026-10-23: ₹88.64
2026-10-27: ₹90.06
2026-10-29: ₹96.61
2026-10-30: ₹91.61

Drawdown from peak

0% -39% -79% Mar '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -39% -79% Mar '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-78.7% (2025-01 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-58.5% (2023-05 peak to 2023-07 low, recovered 2024-07)

-54.7% (2021-08 peak to 2022-11 low, recovered 2023-05)

Where does it rank among Utilities peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Utilities peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Utilities sector page Watch it move against Utilities in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−3.2%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like POWER AND INSTRU GUJARAT LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −14% to +26% vs the market, against −1% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (−2.0%, 80% range −6.2% to +5.8%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
DHRUV · Feb 2025: −73.0% vs market
NOVAAGRI · Jul 2025: −59.8% vs market
DEVIT · Sep 2025: −45.7% vs market
KOPRAN · Mar 2025: −36.7% vs market
RUSHIL · Jul 2025: −33.5% vs market
PARAGMILK · Jan 2020: −33.1% vs market
ASAHISONG · Feb 2022: −30.7% vs market
MIRZAINT · Jun 2020: −25.4% vs market
PIONEEREMB · Jul 2022: −24.5% vs market
ZIMLAB · May 2024: −16.3% vs market
ASTRON · Mar 2021: −15.5% vs market
EVERESTIND · Jan 2020: −14.3% vs market
ARCHIES · Jun 2020: −14.1% vs market
LINC · Apr 2025: −11.6% vs market
CANARYS · Oct 2025: −11.0% vs market
STARPAPER · Jan 2021: −10.2% vs market
RPPL · Sep 2023: −9.8% vs market
SARLAPOLY · Oct 2022: −8.9% vs market
AAKASH · Apr 2025: −7.6% vs market
WELENT · Aug 2020: −6.2% vs market
NIPPOBATRY · Nov 2021: −5.5% vs market
TPLPLASTEH · Oct 2025: −5.4% vs market
PYRAMID · Oct 2025: −5.2% vs market
VETO · Jul 2022: −3.8% vs market
RICOAUTO · Feb 2020: −3.6% vs market
REPL · Jun 2024: −2.7% vs market
STERTOOLS · Feb 2024: −1.4% vs market
AXISCADES · Sep 2020: −0.6% vs market
GNA · Oct 2022: +5.6% vs market
APEX · May 2024: +6.3% vs market
TALBROAUTO · Jan 2020: +11.4% vs market
MMP · May 2025: +11.4% vs market
INSECTICID · Dec 2020: +11.9% vs market
FAZE3Q · Oct 2024: +15.5% vs market
JKIL · Jun 2020: +21.0% vs market
SUNFLAG · Nov 2021: +22.1% vs market
AWHCL · May 2023: +23.2% vs market
ICEMAKE · Jul 2020: +27.2% vs market
NELCAST · Feb 2020: +36.4% vs market
SHAKTIPUMP · Sep 2022: +44.7% vs market
SPAL · Dec 2022: +46.7% vs market
PREMIERPOL · Sep 2023: +55.2% vs market
WEIZMANIND · Dec 2021: +70.6% vs market
PDMJEPAPER · Sep 2020: +74.9% vs market
MANINDS · Apr 2025: +80.6% vs market
ARTEMISMED · Apr 2021: +88.8% vs market
ADOR · Jan 2021: +92.0% vs market
APOLSINHOT · Jun 2022: +100.4% vs market
TDPOWERSYS · Jun 2021: +153.9% vs market
PRECAM · Feb 2021: +178.4% vs market
Similar setups −3.2%All companies −1.2%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−3.2%
All companies' median
−1.2%
Beat the market
44% vs 49%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 33 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
VETO
Producer Manufacturing
Jul 2022 9x14% −32%−34% −4%
ZIMLAB
Health Technology
May 2024 20x17% +5%−32% −16%
NOVAAGRI
Process Industries
Jul 2025 19x16% −35%−37% −60%
ADOR
Producer Manufacturing
Jan 2021 14x12% −14%−21% +92%
APOLSINHOT
Consumer Services
Jun 2022 10x17% −31%−43% +100%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
SPAL
Consumer Non-Durables
Dec 2022 10x16% −25%−36% +47%
ARTEMISMED
Health Services
Apr 2021 13x10% +19%−28% +89%
DEVIT
Technology Services
Sep 2025 17x11% −34%−46% −46%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: drawdown from 12-month high, 12-month momentum and P/S. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to POWER AND INSTRU GUJARAT LTD. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (53 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1012.1x₹226 cr10.5%15.0%0.2x
2026-0912.7x₹226 cr10.5%15.0%0.2x
2026-0813.0x₹219 cr10.3%15.0%0.2x
2026-0713.5x₹219 cr10.3%15.0%0.2x
2026-0614.8x₹219 cr10.3%15.0%0.2x
2026-0514.3x₹215 cr13.1%20.0%0.2x
2026-0414.7x₹215 cr13.1%20.0%0.2x
2026-0312.8x₹215 cr13.1%20.0%0.2x
2026-0213.4x₹200 cr12.7%20.0%0.2x
2026-0114.0x₹200 cr12.7%20.0%0.2x
2025-1216.3x₹200 cr12.7%20.0%0.2x
2025-1120.2x₹185 cr11.9%20.0%0.2x
2025-1020.6x₹185 cr11.9%20.0%0.2x
2025-0922.6x₹185 cr11.9%20.0%0.2x
2025-0820.8x₹169 cr11.2%20.0%0.2x
2025-0717.4x₹169 cr11.2%20.0%0.2x
2025-0618.4x₹169 cr11.2%20.0%0.2x
2025-0521.5x₹151 cr23.5%17.0%0.3x
2025-0420.6x₹151 cr23.5%17.0%0.3x
2025-0321.4x₹151 cr23.5%17.0%0.3x
2025-0227.7x₹132 cr18.7%17.0%0.3x
2025-0145.1x₹132 cr18.7%17.0%0.3x
2024-1249.9x₹132 cr18.7%17.0%0.3x
2024-1156.9x₹102 cr13.7%17.0%0.3x
2024-1040.8x₹102 cr13.7%17.0%0.3x
2024-0933.6x₹102 cr13.7%17.0%0.3x
2024-0836.5x₹98 cr11.9%17.0%0.3x
2024-0724.1x₹98 cr11.9%17.0%0.3x
2024-0616.3x₹98 cr11.9%17.0%0.3x
2024-0524.0x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2024-0426.0x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2024-0323.4x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2024-0224.9x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2024-0124.6x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-1218.3x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-1114.5x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-1014.3x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-0915.4x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-0813.3x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-0714.5x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-0614.6x₹94 cr8.2%12.0%0.7x
2023-0522.5x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2023-0419.5x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2023-0317.8x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2023-0220.8x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2023-0119.9x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-1216.9x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-1118.4x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-1011.9x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-0911.9x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-0813.0x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-0713.2x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x
2022-0613.8x₹91 cr8.2%—0.8x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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