अApnaFunda

UMA EXPORTS LIMITED (UMAEXPORTS)

Distribution Services

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.29 / 100
Profitability 33Growth 19Balance sheet 36
Share Price
₹18.58
P/E
464.5x
ROCE
9.0%
Market Cap
₹63 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹1438 cr
P/S
0.0x
P/B
0.3x
ROE
0.1%
Operating Margin
1.0%
Debt / Equity
0.7x
Promoter Holding
70.9%
12M Momentum
-61.2%
P/E vs its own history98th percentilesince Apr '22
P/E vs Distribution Services27.1xthe sector median

52-week range

₹17.55₹51.69
3% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
49.7%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.47

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
1.0x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.53x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-61%share price, 3 yearsEarnings-driven

Mostly earnings.

  • Per-share earnings took off 344 points, while the multiple moved less (P/E 5.8x to 464.5x).
  • The share count barely moved.
3 years Net profit growth: -345 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-345 ptsP/E change: +283 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+283 pts -61% 3 years Net profit growth: -345 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-345 ptsP/E change: +283 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+283 pts -61%
Net profit growth-344 ptsNet profit fell about 100%, which lowers the price.
P/E change+283 ptsThe P/E rose from 5.8x to 464.5x, which lifts the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 1 year and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with ADANI ENTERPRISES

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

464.5xP/E todayNear its historic high
Against its own history98th percentileMedian 11.2x; usual range 4.9x to 64.4x since 2022-04.
Against Distribution Services464.5x vs 17.1xAbove the Distribution Services median.
3.8x182.7x361.6x540.5xApr '22Mar '23Feb '24Jan '25Dec '25Oct '263.8x182.7x361.6x540.5xApr '22Oct '23Apr '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianDistribution Services median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianDistribution Services median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianDistribution Services median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Distribution Services is valued

What is the price implying?

~0%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 4.7x, the price would imply about −0.3%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Below the ₹1,000 cr market-cap floor used for the lists.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Distribution Services The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Sep '26Slipped to the bottom quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  2. Jun '26EPS (TTM) turned positive.
  3. Jun '26P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (85.6x).
  4. Jun '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  5. Jun '26Debt / equity fell below 1.0x (0.72x).
  6. Mar '26Fell 87% from the Sep 2024 peak to the Mar 2026 low.
  7. Sep '25EPS (TTM) turned negative.
  8. Sep '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
Show 18 earlier events
  1. Jun '25P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (51.4x).
  2. Jun '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  3. Jun '25Debt / equity rose above 1.0x (1.09x).
  4. Mar '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  5. Dec '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (24.2x).
  6. Dec '24Slipped to the bottom quartile of Distribution Services on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  7. Oct '24Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Distribution Services on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  8. Sep '24Moved into the 3rd quartile of Distribution Services on EPS growth (from the bottom quartile).
  9. Aug '24Regained the 2024-04 peak, 2 months after the low.
  10. Jun '24Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹1,532 cr.
  11. Jun '24Fell 28% from the Apr 2024 peak to the Jun 2024 low.
  12. Jun '24Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Distribution Services on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  13. Apr '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (12.7x).
  14. Feb '24Regained the 2022-04 peak, 11 months after the low.
  15. Jun '23Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  16. Jun '23Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Distribution Services on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  17. Jun '23Share count is up 36.0% over 12 months.
  18. Mar '23Fell 58% from the Apr 2022 peak to the Mar 2023 low.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 7 checks are within range, 2 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance300%Beyond threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 300.0%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate19%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 18.8%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.53xNear threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.53x (cash from operations ₹8 cr, net profit ₹15 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-22 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 22 days (6 vs 28). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress5% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 5% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-2 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -2 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, promoters trimmed 1.6 pts.
  • The number of shareholders fell from 38,270 to 22,803 (-40%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters72.5%70.9%-1.6 pts
FIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
DIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
Public and others27.4%29.1%+1.6 pts

Number of shareholders

22,803shareholders-40% since Dec '23
23k28k33k38k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 38,270
Mar '24: 27,871
Jun '24: 24,146
Sep '24: 24,141
Dec '24: 23,099
Mar '25: 22,937
Jun '25: 24,446
Sep '25: 23,711
Dec '25: 23,181
Jun '26: 22,803
23k28k33k38k Dec '23Sep '24Jun '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 38,270
Mar '24: 27,871
Jun '24: 24,146
Sep '24: 24,141
Dec '24: 23,099
Mar '25: 22,937
Jun '25: 24,446
Sep '25: 23,711
Dec '25: 23,181
Jun '26: 22,803

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-86.9%not yet recovered
1-year volatility49.7%annualised

Monthly share price

₹19₹57₹95₹133 Apr '22Mar '23Feb '24Jan '25Dec '25Oct '26
2022-04: ₹64.15
2022-05: ₹54.25
2022-06: ₹50.10
2022-07: ₹52.35
2022-08: ₹51.80
2022-09: ₹47.60
2022-10: ₹47.70
2022-11: ₹48.35
2022-12: ₹47.60
2023-01: ₹46.70
2023-02: ₹41.00
2023-03: ₹37.10
2023-04: ₹42.60
2023-05: ₹45.10
2023-06: ₹56.85
2023-07: ₹55.40
2023-08: ₹48.20
2023-09: ₹51.20
2023-10: ₹48.00
2023-11: ₹47.65
2023-12: ₹53.25
2024-01: ₹70.65
2024-02: ₹95.60
2024-03: ₹89.95
2024-04: ₹105.00
2024-05: ₹89.00
2024-06: ₹88.95
2024-07: ₹94.11
2024-08: ₹133.40
2024-09: ₹112.33
2024-10: ₹109.22
2024-11: ₹99.30
2024-12: ₹114.63
2025-01: ₹105.06
2025-02: ₹89.48
2025-03: ₹83.50
2025-04: ₹70.57
2025-05: ₹67.15
2025-06: ₹53.41
2025-07: ₹48.00
2025-08: ₹53.31
2025-09: ₹45.65
2025-10: ₹47.94
2025-11: ₹40.35
2025-12: ₹38.75
2026-01: ₹32.79
2026-02: ₹27.36
2026-03: ₹18.53
2026-04: ₹25.18
2026-05: ₹25.93
2026-06: ₹22.25
2026-07: ₹20.13
2026-08: ₹25.95
2026-09: ₹21.62
2026-10: ₹18.58
₹19₹57₹95₹133 Apr '22Oct '23Apr '25Oct '26
2022-04: ₹64.15
2022-05: ₹54.25
2022-06: ₹50.10
2022-07: ₹52.35
2022-08: ₹51.80
2022-09: ₹47.60
2022-10: ₹47.70
2022-11: ₹48.35
2022-12: ₹47.60
2023-01: ₹46.70
2023-02: ₹41.00
2023-03: ₹37.10
2023-04: ₹42.60
2023-05: ₹45.10
2023-06: ₹56.85
2023-07: ₹55.40
2023-08: ₹48.20
2023-09: ₹51.20
2023-10: ₹48.00
2023-11: ₹47.65
2023-12: ₹53.25
2024-01: ₹70.65
2024-02: ₹95.60
2024-03: ₹89.95
2024-04: ₹105.00
2024-05: ₹89.00
2024-06: ₹88.95
2024-07: ₹94.11
2024-08: ₹133.40
2024-09: ₹112.33
2024-10: ₹109.22
2024-11: ₹99.30
2024-12: ₹114.63
2025-01: ₹105.06
2025-02: ₹89.48
2025-03: ₹83.50
2025-04: ₹70.57
2025-05: ₹67.15
2025-06: ₹53.41
2025-07: ₹48.00
2025-08: ₹53.31
2025-09: ₹45.65
2025-10: ₹47.94
2025-11: ₹40.35
2025-12: ₹38.75
2026-01: ₹32.79
2026-02: ₹27.36
2026-03: ₹18.53
2026-04: ₹25.18
2026-05: ₹25.93
2026-06: ₹22.25
2026-07: ₹20.13
2026-08: ₹25.95
2026-09: ₹21.62
2026-10: ₹18.58

Last 90 trading days

₹19₹21₹24₹27 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹22.51
2026-06-25: ₹22.01
2026-06-30: ₹22.25
2026-07-02: ₹22.00
2026-07-06: ₹21.80
2026-07-08: ₹21.02
2026-07-10: ₹21.57
2026-07-14: ₹21.78
2026-07-16: ₹21.85
2026-07-20: ₹19.96
2026-07-22: ₹19.73
2026-07-24: ₹20.03
2026-07-28: ₹19.59
2026-07-30: ₹19.91
2026-08-03: ₹20.42
2026-08-05: ₹20.70
2026-08-07: ₹20.07
2026-08-11: ₹20.14
2026-08-13: ₹21.09
2026-08-17: ₹21.73
2026-08-19: ₹22.49
2026-08-21: ₹23.39
2026-08-25: ₹25.48
2026-08-27: ₹26.06
2026-08-31: ₹25.95
2026-09-02: ₹24.94
2026-09-04: ₹23.97
2026-09-08: ₹23.03
2026-09-10: ₹22.12
2026-09-15: ₹21.25
2026-09-17: ₹20.42
2026-09-21: ₹19.62
2026-09-23: ₹20.41
2026-09-25: ₹21.22
2026-09-29: ₹22.06
2026-10-01: ₹22.05
2026-10-06: ₹21.09
2026-10-08: ₹19.88
2026-10-12: ₹20.16
2026-10-14: ₹20.89
2026-10-16: ₹19.95
2026-10-21: ₹19.33
2026-10-23: ₹19.19
2026-10-27: ₹19.37
2026-10-29: ₹18.75
2026-10-30: ₹18.58
₹19₹21₹24₹27 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹22.51
2026-06-25: ₹22.01
2026-06-30: ₹22.25
2026-07-02: ₹22.00
2026-07-06: ₹21.80
2026-07-08: ₹21.02
2026-07-10: ₹21.57
2026-07-14: ₹21.78
2026-07-16: ₹21.85
2026-07-20: ₹19.96
2026-07-22: ₹19.73
2026-07-24: ₹20.03
2026-07-28: ₹19.59
2026-07-30: ₹19.91
2026-08-03: ₹20.42
2026-08-05: ₹20.70
2026-08-07: ₹20.07
2026-08-11: ₹20.14
2026-08-13: ₹21.09
2026-08-17: ₹21.73
2026-08-19: ₹22.49
2026-08-21: ₹23.39
2026-08-25: ₹25.48
2026-08-27: ₹26.06
2026-08-31: ₹25.95
2026-09-02: ₹24.94
2026-09-04: ₹23.97
2026-09-08: ₹23.03
2026-09-10: ₹22.12
2026-09-15: ₹21.25
2026-09-17: ₹20.42
2026-09-21: ₹19.62
2026-09-23: ₹20.41
2026-09-25: ₹21.22
2026-09-29: ₹22.06
2026-10-01: ₹22.05
2026-10-06: ₹21.09
2026-10-08: ₹19.88
2026-10-12: ₹20.16
2026-10-14: ₹20.89
2026-10-16: ₹19.95
2026-10-21: ₹19.33
2026-10-23: ₹19.19
2026-10-27: ₹19.37
2026-10-29: ₹18.75
2026-10-30: ₹18.58

Drawdown from peak

0% -43% -87% Apr '22Jul '24Oct '26 0% -43% -87% Apr '22Jul '24Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-86.9% (2024-09 peak to 2026-03 low, not yet recovered)

-58.4% (2022-04 peak to 2023-03 low, recovered 2024-02)

-28.1% (2024-04 peak to 2024-06 low, recovered 2024-08)

Where does it rank among Distribution Services peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Distribution Services peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Distribution Services sector page Watch it move against Distribution Services in the Observatory

What happened next to similar setups

−11.2%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like UMA EXPORTS LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −29% to +10% vs the market, against −10% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (−1.1%, 80% range −6.6% to +0.4%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
ALLCARGO · Nov 2024: −73.6% vs market
RAJMET · Jan 2025: −52.9% vs market
KSHITIJPOL · May 2024: −44.5% vs market
GENUSPAPER · Jan 2025: −43.6% vs market
KANANIIND · Jan 2025: −43.2% vs market
AKSHAR · Feb 2025: −38.7% vs market
LOYALTEX · Aug 2023: −37.8% vs market
EVERESTIND · Jan 2025: −35.7% vs market
DAMODARIND · Nov 2023: −35.1% vs market
ACLGATI · Aug 2024: −34.1% vs market
ACCURACY · Jul 2024: −33.4% vs market
ZENITHSTL · Jun 2025: −32.6% vs market
RELCHEMQ · Nov 2024: −30.2% vs market
TEXMOPIPES · Nov 2024: −26.4% vs market
BODALCHEM · Dec 2024: −24.8% vs market
VINEETLAB · Nov 2024: −24.1% vs market
JOCIL · Jul 2024: −20.5% vs market
BIRLACABLE · Mar 2025: −20.0% vs market
TOTAL · Aug 2024: −17.8% vs market
AKG · Apr 2025: −17.8% vs market
SAKHTISUG · Sep 2025: −15.3% vs market
GREENCHEF · Sep 2024: −14.3% vs market
TNPL · Jun 2025: −12.4% vs market
INCREDIBLE · Feb 2021: −12.1% vs market
AIROLAM · Apr 2025: −11.5% vs market
SAGARDEEP · Jun 2023: −10.9% vs market
ORIENTBELL · Oct 2024: −10.8% vs market
UCAL · Oct 2023: −10.5% vs market
NGIL · Dec 2023: −8.8% vs market
HTMEDIA · Jan 2020: −8.5% vs market
AXITA · Jun 2025: −8.1% vs market
VIKASECO · Jan 2023: −4.1% vs market
KHADIM · Jun 2022: −1.8% vs market
ROML · Oct 2024: −0.6% vs market
JETFREIGHT · Jun 2024: +1.9% vs market
EXXARO · Aug 2024: +2.1% vs market
UMA · Mar 2024: +3.8% vs market
GOKUL · Jun 2024: +12.6% vs market
MALUPAPER · Apr 2021: +12.6% vs market
CAPACITE · Mar 2022: +14.4% vs market
SADHNANIQ · Oct 2025: +20.5% vs market
KOTHARIPRO · Dec 2023: +33.4% vs market
ISFT · Jun 2020: +34.1% vs market
BEARDSELL · Jul 2020: +46.7% vs market
NDL · Aug 2023: +49.3% vs market
DBOL · Apr 2025: +66.6% vs market
GRPLTD · Jul 2021: +71.0% vs market
SALSTEEL · Jan 2025: +80.4% vs market
KANPRPLA · Jun 2024: +91.8% vs market
PENIND · Oct 2021: +109.4% vs market
Similar setups −11.2%All companies −10.1%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 1 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−11.2%
All companies' median
−10.1%
Beat the market
32% vs 38%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 31 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
NDL
Process Industries
Aug 2023 —5% −27%−40% +49%
VINEETLAB
Process Industries
Nov 2024 640x7% −22%−35% −24%
TOTAL
Transportation
Aug 2024 126x7% −20%−35% −18%
LOYALTEX
Process Industries
Aug 2023 107x4% −33%−35% −38%
KANANIIND
Consumer Durables
Jan 2025 257x2% −56%−65% −43%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
ACCURACY
Transportation
Jul 2024 397x5% +15%−34% −33%
TNPL
Process Industries
Jun 2025 302x6% −38%−42% −12%
VIKASECO
Process Industries
Jan 2023 83x14% −48%−50% −4%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: interest cover, ROCE and operating margin. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to UMA EXPORTS LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (55 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-10464.5x₹1438 cr0.1%9.0%0.7x
2026-09540.5x₹1438 cr0.1%9.0%0.7x
2026-0899.8x₹1530 cr0.4%9.0%0.7x
2026-0777.4x₹1530 cr0.4%9.0%0.7x
2026-0685.6x₹1530 cr0.4%9.0%0.7x
2026-05—₹1725 cr-2.5%4.0%1.1x
2026-04—₹1725 cr-2.5%4.0%1.1x
2026-03—₹1725 cr-2.5%4.0%1.1x
2026-02—₹1659 cr-2.0%4.0%1.1x
2026-01—₹1659 cr-2.0%4.0%1.1x
2025-12—₹1659 cr-2.0%4.0%1.1x
2025-11—₹1630 cr-1.3%4.0%1.1x
2025-10—₹1630 cr-1.3%4.0%1.1x
2025-09—₹1630 cr-1.3%4.0%1.1x
2025-0851.3x₹1724 cr1.8%4.0%1.1x
2025-0746.2x₹1724 cr1.8%4.0%1.1x
2025-0651.4x₹1724 cr1.8%4.0%1.1x
2025-0513.5x₹1756 cr8.8%8.0%0.6x
2025-0414.2x₹1756 cr8.8%8.0%0.6x
2025-0316.8x₹1756 cr8.8%8.0%0.6x
2025-0218.9x₹1693 cr8.4%8.0%0.6x
2025-0122.2x₹1693 cr8.4%8.0%0.6x
2024-1224.2x₹1693 cr8.4%8.0%0.6x
2024-1120.8x₹1603 cr8.5%8.0%0.6x
2024-1022.9x₹1603 cr8.5%8.0%0.6x
2024-0923.5x₹1603 cr8.5%8.0%0.6x
2024-0844.2x₹1532 cr5.4%8.0%0.6x
2024-0731.2x₹1532 cr5.4%8.0%0.6x
2024-0629.5x₹1532 cr5.4%8.0%0.6x
2024-0510.7x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2024-0412.7x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2024-0310.9x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2024-0211.5x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2024-018.5x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-126.4x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-115.7x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-105.8x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-096.2x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-085.8x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-076.7x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-066.9x₹1488 cr15.6%21.0%0.6x
2023-054.7x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2023-044.4x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2023-033.8x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2023-024.2x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2023-014.8x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-124.9x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-115.0x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-104.9x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-094.9x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-085.4x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-075.4x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-065.2x₹1273 cr25.5%37.0%0.4x
2022-0510.8x₹742 cr18.8%22.0%0.6x
2022-0412.8x₹742 cr18.8%22.0%0.6x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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