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VINSYS IT SERVICES LIMITED (VINSYS)

Commercial Services

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.65 / 100
Profitability 70Growth 74Balance sheet 49
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.67 / 100
Price 87Earnings 19FII/DII 96

Passes these screens: High Momentum · Debt-light & profitable · Consistent compounders · Near 52-week high

Share Price
₹610.10
P/E
30.1x
ROCE
21.0%
Market Cap
₹900 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹268 cr
P/S
3.4x
P/B
5.6x
ROE
18.5%
Debt / Equity
0.3x
Promoter Holding
64.7%
12M Momentum
60.6%
P/E vs its own history100th percentilesince Aug '23
P/E vs Commercial Services1.5xthe sector median

52-week range

₹215.00₹620.95
97% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
43.8%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.41

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
9.8x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
-0.08x
low
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

+61%share price, 1 yearMultiple-driven

Partly.

  • Most of the rise came from investors paying a higher multiple (P/E 18.6x to 30.1x); per-share earnings took off 1 point.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).P/E change: +62 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+62 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +61% 1 year Net profit growth: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).P/E change: +62 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+62 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +61%
Net profit growth0 ptsNet profit was little changed.
P/E change+62 ptsThe P/E rose from 18.6x to 30.1x, which lifts the price.
Share count change-1 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTIONS

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

30.1xP/E todayNear its historic high
Against its own history100th percentileMedian 21.0x; usual range 17.2x to 27.0x since 2023-08.
Against Commercial Services30.1x vs 19.9xAbove the Commercial Services median.
11.4x19.6x27.8x36.0xAug '23Apr '24Dec '24Aug '25Apr '26Oct '2611.4x19.6x27.8x36.0xAug '23Sep '24Oct '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianCommercial Services median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianCommercial Services median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianCommercial Services median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Commercial Services is valued

What is the price implying?

~20%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 30.1x, the price would imply about 20.1%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Commercial Services The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Volume reached 12.5x its 50-day median on 2026-10-29; price +6.6% that day.
  2. Jul '26P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (27.1x).
  3. Jun '26Promoter holding fell 3.4 pts to 64.7%.
  4. Jun '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  5. Jun '26Regained the 2025-09 peak, 3 months after the low.
  6. Jun '26FII + DII holding rose 4.6 pts over 2 quarters to 12.4%.
  7. Jun '26Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Commercial Services on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  8. Apr '26Volume reached 10.6x its 50-day median on 2026-04-15; price -1.0% that day.
Show 22 earlier events
  1. Mar '26Fell 49% from the Sep 2025 peak to the Mar 2026 low.
  2. Jan '26Volume reached 10.1x its 50-day median on 2026-01-27; price +3.6% that day.
  3. Dec '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (17.2x).
  4. Dec '25Moved into the top quartile of Commercial Services on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  5. Dec '25Volume reached 23.8x its 50-day median on 2025-12-23; price -1.2% that day.
  6. Sep '25Regained the 2025-01 peak, 6 months after the low.
  7. Aug '25Volume reached 22.5x its 50-day median on 2025-08-22; price +2.4% that day.
  8. Jun '25Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹212 cr.
  9. Jun '25Moved into the 2nd quartile of Commercial Services on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  10. Apr '25Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Commercial Services on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  11. Apr '25Volume reached 5.7x its 50-day median on 2025-04-09; price +6.2% that day.
  12. Mar '25Fell 27% from the Jan 2025 peak to the Mar 2025 low.
  13. Mar '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.18x.
  14. Feb '25Volume reached 9.8x its 50-day median on 2025-02-21; price -1.6% that day.
  15. Nov '24Volume reached 10.6x its 50-day median on 2024-11-14; price +6.8% that day.
  16. Sep '24Volume reached 7.1x its 50-day median on 2024-09-25; price +0.9% that day.
  17. Aug '24Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.18x.
  18. Aug '24Share count is up 50.0% over 12 months.
  19. Apr '24Regained the 2023-09 peak, 7 months after the low.
  20. Apr '24Volume reached 14.1x its 50-day median on 2024-04-22; price +18.8% that day.
  21. Mar '24Volume reached 6.6x its 50-day median on 2024-03-11; price +7.1% that day.
  22. Sep '23Fell 28% from the Sep 2023 peak to the Sep 2023 low.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

1 of 5 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 3 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance6%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 5.7%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Cash conversion-0.08xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -0.08x (cash from operations ₹-7 cr, net profit ₹83 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow1 of 5 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 1. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history+30 daysNear threshold

Debtor days are above the median of the previous three fiscal years by 30 days (123 vs 93). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress160% of fixed assetsBeyond threshold

Capital work-in-progress is 160% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, FIIs added 6.5 pts; promoters trimmed 3.4 pts; DIIs trimmed 1.8 pts.
  • The number of shareholders fell from 1,011 to 908 (-10%) between Sep 2023 and Mar 2026.

Holdings, Mar '26

How each group changed

GroupSep '23Mar '26Change
Promoters68.1%64.7%-3.4 pts
FIIs5.5%12.0%+6.5 pts
DIIs2.2%0.4%-1.8 pts
Public and others24.2%22.9%-1.3 pts

Number of shareholders

908shareholders-10% since Sep '23
9081k1k1k Sep '23Mar '24Sep '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26
Sep '23: 1,011
Mar '24: 1,244
Sep '24: 1,308
Mar '25: 965
Sep '25: 921
Mar '26: 908
9081k1k1k Sep '23Sep '24Sep '25Mar '26
Sep '23: 1,011
Mar '24: 1,244
Sep '24: 1,308
Mar '25: 965
Sep '25: 921
Mar '26: 908

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-48.6%recovered 2026-06
1-year volatility43.8%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.433-year daily, correlation 0.19
Volume spikes6last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹233₹359₹485₹610 Aug '23Apr '24Dec '24Aug '25Apr '26Oct '26
2023-08: ₹303.00
2023-09: ₹280.70
2023-10: ₹284.50
2023-11: ₹256.55
2023-12: ₹268.00
2024-01: ₹282.00
2024-02: ₹269.50
2024-03: ₹317.95
2024-04: ₹360.90
2024-05: ₹346.00
2024-06: ₹347.10
2024-07: ₹376.75
2024-08: ₹364.75
2024-09: ₹404.25
2024-10: ₹380.55
2024-11: ₹348.95
2024-12: ₹421.00
2025-01: ₹409.25
2025-02: ₹322.95
2025-03: ₹360.00
2025-04: ₹392.00
2025-05: ₹394.10
2025-06: ₹384.50
2025-07: ₹352.50
2025-08: ₹384.05
2025-09: ₹417.00
2025-10: ₹380.00
2025-11: ₹430.05
2025-12: ₹352.60
2026-01: ₹372.55
2026-02: ₹310.40
2026-03: ₹233.40
2026-04: ₹307.50
2026-05: ₹366.00
2026-06: ₹458.50
2026-07: ₹549.80
2026-08: ₹607.00
2026-09: ₹589.00
2026-10: ₹610.10
₹233₹359₹485₹610 Aug '23Sep '24Oct '25Oct '26
2023-08: ₹303.00
2023-09: ₹280.70
2023-10: ₹284.50
2023-11: ₹256.55
2023-12: ₹268.00
2024-01: ₹282.00
2024-02: ₹269.50
2024-03: ₹317.95
2024-04: ₹360.90
2024-05: ₹346.00
2024-06: ₹347.10
2024-07: ₹376.75
2024-08: ₹364.75
2024-09: ₹404.25
2024-10: ₹380.55
2024-11: ₹348.95
2024-12: ₹421.00
2025-01: ₹409.25
2025-02: ₹322.95
2025-03: ₹360.00
2025-04: ₹392.00
2025-05: ₹394.10
2025-06: ₹384.50
2025-07: ₹352.50
2025-08: ₹384.05
2025-09: ₹417.00
2025-10: ₹380.00
2025-11: ₹430.05
2025-12: ₹352.60
2026-01: ₹372.55
2026-02: ₹310.40
2026-03: ₹233.40
2026-04: ₹307.50
2026-05: ₹366.00
2026-06: ₹458.50
2026-07: ₹549.80
2026-08: ₹607.00
2026-09: ₹589.00
2026-10: ₹610.10

Last 90 trading days

₹419₹485₹552₹619 Jun 22Jul 17Aug 12Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-22: ₹418.70
2026-06-24: ₹457.20
2026-06-29: ₹457.35
2026-07-01: ₹457.40
2026-07-03: ₹470.15
2026-07-07: ₹490.00
2026-07-09: ₹498.00
2026-07-13: ₹503.00
2026-07-15: ₹503.00
2026-07-17: ₹505.35
2026-07-21: ₹512.50
2026-07-23: ₹518.10
2026-07-27: ₹523.50
2026-07-29: ₹530.00
2026-07-31: ₹549.80
2026-08-04: ₹560.00
2026-08-06: ₹570.00
2026-08-10: ₹578.40
2026-08-12: ₹580.00
2026-08-14: ₹579.00
2026-08-18: ₹579.00
2026-08-20: ₹590.00
2026-08-24: ₹600.00
2026-08-26: ₹599.90
2026-08-28: ₹604.00
2026-09-01: ₹609.00
2026-09-04: ₹597.00
2026-09-08: ₹593.20
2026-09-10: ₹585.00
2026-09-15: ₹590.00
2026-09-17: ₹582.00
2026-09-21: ₹589.70
2026-09-23: ₹587.65
2026-09-25: ₹582.00
2026-09-29: ₹577.00
2026-10-01: ₹579.50
2026-10-06: ₹576.00
2026-10-08: ₹573.00
2026-10-12: ₹582.50
2026-10-14: ₹590.00
2026-10-16: ₹589.00
2026-10-21: ₹598.60
2026-10-23: ₹589.00
2026-10-27: ₹590.00
2026-10-29: ₹618.50
2026-10-30: ₹610.10
₹419₹485₹552₹619 Jun 22Aug 4Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-22: ₹418.70
2026-06-24: ₹457.20
2026-06-29: ₹457.35
2026-07-01: ₹457.40
2026-07-03: ₹470.15
2026-07-07: ₹490.00
2026-07-09: ₹498.00
2026-07-13: ₹503.00
2026-07-15: ₹503.00
2026-07-17: ₹505.35
2026-07-21: ₹512.50
2026-07-23: ₹518.10
2026-07-27: ₹523.50
2026-07-29: ₹530.00
2026-07-31: ₹549.80
2026-08-04: ₹560.00
2026-08-06: ₹570.00
2026-08-10: ₹578.40
2026-08-12: ₹580.00
2026-08-14: ₹579.00
2026-08-18: ₹579.00
2026-08-20: ₹590.00
2026-08-24: ₹600.00
2026-08-26: ₹599.90
2026-08-28: ₹604.00
2026-09-01: ₹609.00
2026-09-04: ₹597.00
2026-09-08: ₹593.20
2026-09-10: ₹585.00
2026-09-15: ₹590.00
2026-09-17: ₹582.00
2026-09-21: ₹589.70
2026-09-23: ₹587.65
2026-09-25: ₹582.00
2026-09-29: ₹577.00
2026-10-01: ₹579.50
2026-10-06: ₹576.00
2026-10-08: ₹573.00
2026-10-12: ₹582.50
2026-10-14: ₹590.00
2026-10-16: ₹589.00
2026-10-21: ₹598.60
2026-10-23: ₹589.00
2026-10-27: ₹590.00
2026-10-29: ₹618.50
2026-10-30: ₹610.10

Drawdown from peak

0% -24% -48% Aug '23Mar '25Oct '26 0% -24% -48% Aug '23Mar '25Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-48.6% (2025-09 peak to 2026-03 low, recovered 2026-06)

-28.3% (2023-09 peak to 2023-09 low, recovered 2024-04)

-27.0% (2025-01 peak to 2025-03 low, recovered 2025-09)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-30: 6x the 50-day median, price -1.4% that day

2026-10-29: 12.5x the 50-day median, price +6.6% that day

2026-10-28: 8x the 50-day median, price -1.7% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Commercial Services peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Commercial Services peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Commercial Services sector page Watch it move against Commercial Services in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
SHRI AHIMSA NATURALS (SHRIAHIMSA)Consumer Non-Durables66%P/E, market cap
EFFWA INFRA AND RESEARCH (EFFWA)Industrial Services61%revenue, debt/equity
INNOVANA THINKLABS (INNOVANA)Technology Services61%volatility, revenue
RNFI SERVICES (RNFI)Technology Services60%promoter holding, market cap
MENON BEARINGS (MENONBE)Producer Manufacturing59%EPS growth, revenue
GLOBAL EDUCATION (GLOBAL)Commercial Services37%volatility, P/E
ONE POINT ONE SOLUTIONS (ONEPOINT)Commercial Services34%revenue growth, revenue
KRYSTAL INTEGRATED SERVICE (KRYSTAL)Commercial Services29%market cap, debt/equity

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+2.5%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like VINSYS IT SERVICES LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −17% to +29% vs the market, against −2% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+4.6%, 80% range −7.8% to +9.6%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−50%0%+50%+100%
SATIA · Aug 2020: −49.6% vs market
GNA · Feb 2023: −36.2% vs market
AVTNPL · Mar 2022: −35.9% vs market
CARYSIL · Nov 2023: −35.6% vs market
SOUTHWEST · Jan 2022: −34.0% vs market
STYLAMIND · May 2023: −31.1% vs market
JAMNAAUTO · Jun 2022: −30.5% vs market
GREENLAM · Feb 2020: −29.1% vs market
JASH · Nov 2024: −25.2% vs market
GANESHBE · Feb 2023: −21.5% vs market
AARON · Feb 2025: −21.4% vs market
IRISDOREME · Feb 2023: −17.7% vs market
SUDARSCHEM · Feb 2020: −16.6% vs market
MBAPL · Mar 2020: −16.5% vs market
ASKAUTOLTD · Jun 2025: −16.1% vs market
HEIDELBERG · Feb 2020: −15.0% vs market
SIRCA · Aug 2025: −12.6% vs market
KDDL · Jun 2024: −12.5% vs market
ROTO · Apr 2023: −9.9% vs market
ROLEXRINGS · Sep 2022: −8.8% vs market
YASHOPTICS · Aug 2025: −8.3% vs market
THEMISMED · Apr 2023: −4.9% vs market
IRIS · Sep 2024: −2.2% vs market
BHAGCHEM · Oct 2022: −0.8% vs market
VISHNU · Jul 2025: +2.3% vs market
TI · Dec 2024: +2.6% vs market
BECTORFOOD · Jul 2023: +3.5% vs market
CIGNITITEC · Apr 2023: +5.4% vs market
GALAXYSURF · Jan 2020: +7.2% vs market
MOLDTKPAC · Jul 2022: +7.6% vs market
DOLLAR · Oct 2021: +10.0% vs market
TEGA · Jun 2023: +15.1% vs market
VADILALIND · Jun 2022: +16.3% vs market
APOLLOPIPE · Mar 2021: +19.2% vs market
GARFIBRES · Feb 2020: +20.7% vs market
VENUSPIPES · Jun 2023: +22.1% vs market
SAKAR · Jun 2020: +25.4% vs market
SJS · Nov 2024: +30.6% vs market
NEWGEN · Oct 2020: +36.8% vs market
PRICOLLTD · Sep 2025: +39.2% vs market
THEJO · Feb 2023: +41.2% vs market
ANUP · Jun 2023: +41.4% vs market
INFOBEAN · Sep 2020: +42.2% vs market
MENONBE · Jul 2025: +44.8% vs market
SILVERTUC · Oct 2025: +69.3% vs market
KRISHANA · Sep 2021: +74.0% vs market
VIDHIING · Sep 2020: +80.8% vs market
VAIBHAVGBL · Jan 2020: +104.0% vs market
APLAPOLLO · Aug 2020: +117.0% vs market
AARTIDRUGS · Apr 2020: +148.6% vs market
Similar setups +2.5%All companies −2.1%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+2.5%
All companies' median
−2.1%
Beat the market
52% vs 48%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 33 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
VENUSPIPES
Non-Energy Minerals
Jun 2023 53x23% +242%0% +22%
SIRCA
Process Industries
Aug 2025 52x19% +44%−1% −13%
VIDHIING
Consumer Non-Durables
Sep 2020 18x— +98%0% +81%
ROTO
Producer Manufacturing
Apr 2023 33x30% +48%0% −10%
JASH
Producer Manufacturing
Nov 2024 52x25% +131%0% −25%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
MBAPL
Process Industries
Mar 2020 13x14% +18%— −17%
SUDARSCHEM
Process Industries
Feb 2020 24x17% +44%−8% −17%
SAKAR
Health Technology
Jun 2020 12x— +28%0% +25%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: P/S, interest cover and P/E. Not used (unavailable for this company): operating margin. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to VINSYS IT SERVICES LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (39 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1030.1x₹268 cr18.5%21.0%0.3x
2026-0929.1x₹268 cr18.5%21.0%0.3x
2026-0830.0x₹268 cr18.5%21.0%0.3x
2026-0727.1x₹268 cr18.5%21.0%0.3x
2026-0622.6x₹268 cr18.5%21.0%0.3x
2026-0517.9x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2026-0415.0x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2026-0311.4x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2026-0215.2x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2026-0118.2x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-1217.2x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-1121.0x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-1018.6x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-0920.4x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-0818.8x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-0717.2x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-0618.8x₹212 cr22.9%29.0%0.1x
2025-0525.2x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2025-0425.1x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2025-0323.1x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2025-0220.7x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2025-0126.2x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-1227.0x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-1122.4x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-1024.4x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-0925.9x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-0823.4x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-0724.1x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-0622.2x₹170 cr22.8%33.0%0.2x
2024-0523.1x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2024-0424.0x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2024-0321.2x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2024-0218.0x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2024-0118.8x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2023-1217.9x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2023-1117.1x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2023-1019.0x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2023-0918.7x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x
2023-0820.2x₹95 cr62.5%53.0%1.0x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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