52-week range
Price risk
Balance sheet & cash
Was the rally earned?
Mostly yes, with a catch.
- Per-share earnings added 18 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 21.2x to 19.2x), which took 10 points back.
- The share count rose 35%.
What do "pts" mean?
"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.
Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.
Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.
Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.
What is the price implying?
At a P/E of 19.2x, the price would imply about 14.8%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.
Below the ₹1,000 cr market-cap floor used for the lists.
“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.
What prices imply across Retail Trade The market-wide Expectations lists
What changed?
- Aug '26Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.45x.
- Aug '26Share count is up 32.0% over 12 months.
- Jul '26Volume reached 28.2x its 50-day median on 2026-07-03; price +9.9% that day.
- Jun '26Debt / equity fell below 1.0x (0.45x).
- Jun '26Volume reached 27.4x its 50-day median on 2026-06-09; price +13.4% that day.
- Mar '26Fell 47% from the Aug 2025 peak to the Mar 2026 low.
- Jan '26Volume reached 39.5x its 50-day median on 2026-01-20; price +18.7% that day.
- Dec '25Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Retail Trade on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
Show 2 earlier events
- Nov '25Volume reached 9.6x its 50-day median on 2025-11-21; price +5.9% that day.
- Sep '25Moved into the 2nd quartile of Retail Trade on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.
Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month
Are profits backed by cash?
2 of 5 checks are within range, 2 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.
Other income reliance20%Near threshold
Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 19.5%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.
Tax rate25%Within range
Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 25.4%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.
Cash conversion-0.34xBeyond threshold
Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -0.34x (cash from operations ₹-30 cr, net profit ₹87 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.
Free cash flow3 of 5 yrsNear threshold
Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 3. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.
Receivable days vs history—Not enough data
Not enough reported data to compute this.
Capital work in progress1% of fixed assetsWithin range
Capital work-in-progress is 1% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.
Payable days—Not enough data
Not enough reported data to compute this.
How to read this
Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.
Who has been buying and selling?
- Since Sep 2025, FIIs trimmed 2.4 pts; DIIs added 1.2 pts.
- The number of shareholders fell from 52,871 to 37,293 (-29%) between Sep 2025 and Jun 2026.
Holdings, Jun '26
How each group changed
Number of shareholders
Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.
How rough has the ride been?
Monthly share price
Last 90 trading days
Drawdown from peak
Largest drawdowns
-47.4% (2025-08 peak to 2026-03 low, not yet recovered)
Most recent volume spikes
2026-07-06: 13.7x the 50-day median, price +1.2% that day
2026-07-03: 28.2x the 50-day median, price +9.9% that day
Where does it rank among Retail Trade peers?
Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Retail Trade peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).
Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.
The Retail Trade sector page Watch it move against Retail Trade in the Observatory
What else looks like this?
Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.
| Company | Sector | Similarity | Closest on |
|---|---|---|---|
| MMP INDUSTRIES (MMP) | Non-Energy Minerals | 66% | debt/equity, revenue |
| PROSTARM INFO SYSTEMS (PROSTARM) | Electronic Technology | 65% | P/E, market cap |
| KRYSTAL INTEGRATED SERVICE (KRYSTAL) | Commercial Services | 63% | ROCE, promoter holding |
| MONTE CARLO FASHIONS (MONTECARLO) | Consumer Non-Durables | 61% | revenue, market cap |
| SCODA TUBES (SCODATUBES) | Non-Energy Minerals | 60% | debt/equity, P/E |
| MANOJ VAIBHAV GEMS JEW (MVGJL) | Retail Trade | 51% | ROCE, market cap |
| CONFIDENCE PETROLEUM INDIA LIM (CONFIPET) | Retail Trade | 20% | operating margin, debt/equity |
| MOTISONS JEWELLERS (MOTISONS) | Retail Trade | 19% | P/E, ROCE |
Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.
What happened next to similar setups
- We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like PATEL RETAIL LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
- Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −20% to +54% vs the market, against −2% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
- The analogs' median sat above that base rate (gap +15.0%, 80% range +2.9% to +33.7%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.
Where the 50 outcomes landed
Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 5 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge
50 past situations · 50 companies · 35 months · 2020–2025
The closest matches
| Company | When | P/E | ROCE | 12M mom. | Drawdown | Next 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POWERMECH Industrial Services |
Aug 2022 | 15x | 18% | +74% | −1% | +174% |
| LUMAXIND Producer Manufacturing |
Sep 2023 | 22x | 19% | +47% | −2% | −25% |
| GRAVITA Non-Energy Minerals |
Dec 2020 | 16x | 19% | +59% | 0% | +182% |
| KAMDHENU Non-Energy Minerals |
Mar 2022 | 25x | 15% | +66% | −11% | +43% |
| RGL Consumer Durables |
Feb 2020 | 9x | 10% | +26% | −7% | −43% |
Show the other 3 matches
How reliable is this?
Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: ROCE, 12-month momentum and debt/equity. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.
Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.
Monthly history (15 months)
| Month | P/E | Revenue (TTM) | ROE | ROCE | Debt / Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 19.2x | ₹1175 cr | 11.5% | 16.0% | 0.4x |
| 2026-09 | 17.0x | ₹1175 cr | 11.5% | 16.0% | 0.4x |
| 2026-08 | 18.3x | ₹1048 cr | 10.8% | 16.0% | 0.4x |
| 2026-07 | 18.2x | ₹1048 cr | 10.8% | 16.0% | 0.4x |
| 2026-06 | 17.4x | ₹1048 cr | 10.8% | 16.0% | 0.4x |
| 2026-05 | 14.8x | ₹934 cr | 26.8% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2026-04 | 17.3x | ₹934 cr | 26.8% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2026-03 | 12.3x | ₹934 cr | 26.8% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2026-02 | 16.0x | ₹853 cr | 22.5% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2026-01 | 17.6x | ₹853 cr | 22.5% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2025-12 | 17.8x | ₹853 cr | 22.5% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2025-11 | 24.7x | ₹826 cr | 19.3% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2025-10 | 21.2x | ₹826 cr | 19.3% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2025-09 | 22.6x | ₹826 cr | 19.3% | 17.0% | 1.4x |
| 2025-08 | 25.5x | ₹821 cr | 18.7% | 17.0% | 1.4x |