Retail Trade: implied vs delivered earnings growth
18 ranked companies · Oct 2026 · prices as of 9 Oct 2026
Discount rate 12% · 10-year horizon · exit P/E 15x · dividends at each company's own payout
In Retail Trade, the median price implies 26.6%/yr earnings growth against 24.0%/yr delivered over the past decade, a gap of +0.1 pts, higher than 3 of 17 other sectors. Treated as one company (aggregate market cap over aggregate profit), the sector's price implies 30.1%/yr.
These figures are a mechanical translation of each company's current price-to-earnings ratio into the earnings growth that would be consistent with it, under fixed assumptions we chose (12% annual return, 10 years, exit P/E 15x). They are not forecasts, price targets or recommendations, and change materially with the assumptions. Delivered growth is historical and does not predict future results. ApnaFunda is not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment adviser. Data may contain errors; verify with company filings before relying on it.
An investor buys at today's trailing P/E, receives dividends equal to a fixed share of earnings for 10 years, then sells at an exit P/E of 15x. We solve for the constant annual earnings-per-share growth that makes that sequence worth exactly today's price at a 12% required return: P/E = payout × Σ xᵗ + exit P/E × xᴺ, with x = (1 + growth) / (1 + required return). With no dividends it reduces to growth = (1 + r) × (P/E ÷ exit P/E)^(1/N) − 1. Each company uses its own median payout over its last five fiscal years (zero if unknown).
Delivered growth is the fitted annual growth of net profit per share over the last up to ten fiscal years known at the time (a 60-day reporting lag is applied), or a first-three-versus-last-three-years average where earnings are cyclical or a loss year interrupts the series. Cyclical companies are valued on their five-year average earnings rather than trailing ones. The gap is implied growth minus delivered growth, in percentage points.
Sensitivity at a P/E of 40x and a 30% payout (exit P/E down, required return across):
Exit P/E / return
11%
12%
13%
12x
23.3%
24.4%
25.5%
15x
20.8%
21.9%
23.0%
20x
17.7%
18.7%
19.8%
Because a change in the required return or exit multiple moves every company's implied growth by nearly the same amount, the ranking is stable under the assumptions; only the levels move. The curve is also concave: doubling a P/E from 40x to 80x adds only about seven points of implied growth, so a 200x P/E does not mean ten times the growth. There is no consensus forecast in this data, so the comparison is with history only. Sector indices and "sector as one company" use today's constituents and are survivorship-biased.