अApnaFunda

ALPEX SOLAR LIMITED (ALPEXSOLAR)

Electronic Technology

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.46 / 100
Profitability 79Balance sheet 14
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.50 / 100
Price 21Earnings 42FII/DII 85

Passes these screens: Quality Compounder · Value Pick

Share Price
₹660.40
P/E
8.4x
ROCE
45.0%
Market Cap
₹1688 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹2346 cr
P/S
0.7x
P/B
3.0x
ROE
35.6%
Operating Margin
15.0%
Debt / Equity
1.0x
Promoter Holding
65.9%
12M Momentum
-45.0%
P/E vs its own history3rd percentilesince Feb '24
P/E vs Electronic Technology0.1xthe sector median

52-week range

₹650.00₹1319.00
2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
52.2%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.98

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
9.2x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
-0.17x
low
Share count, 1Y
+8.3%

Was the rally earned?

-45%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 32 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 23.5x to 8.4x), which took 77 points back.
  • The share count rose 5%.
1 year Net profit growth: +36 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+36 ptsP/E change: -77 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-77 ptsShare count change: -4 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -45% 1 year Net profit growth: +36 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+36 ptsP/E change: -77 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-77 ptsShare count change: -4 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -45%
Net profit growth+36 ptsNet profit rose about 62%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-77 ptsThe P/E fell from 23.5x to 8.4x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-4 ptsShare count rose 5%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with WAAREE ENERGIES

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

8.4xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history3rd percentileMedian 25.5x; usual range 10.4x to 75.5x since 2024-02.
Against Electronic Technology8.4x vs 55.3xBelow the Electronic Technology median.
8.4x34.5x60.6x86.7xFeb '24Sep '24Apr '25Nov '25Jun '26Oct '268.4x34.5x60.6x86.7xFeb '24Jan '25Dec '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianElectronic Technology median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianElectronic Technology median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianElectronic Technology median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Electronic Technology is valued

What is the price implying?

~6%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 8.4x, the price would imply about 5.7%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Electronic Technology The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 51% from the Sep 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Oct '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (8.4x).
  3. Sep '26Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Electronic Technology on EPS growth (from the top quartile).
  4. Aug '26Volume reached 6.8x its 50-day median on 2026-08-18; price +12.7% that day.
  5. Jun '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (11.1x).
  6. Jun '26Share count is up 8.3% over 12 months.
  7. Dec '25Promoter holding fell 2.9 pts to 65.9%.
  8. Dec '25Volume reached 12.0x its 50-day median on 2025-12-08; price -14.6% that day.
Show 13 earlier events
  1. Jun '25Regained the 2024-07 peak, 3 months after the low.
  2. Jun '25Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Electronic Technology on operating margin (from the top quartile).
  3. Jun '25Volume reached 5.6x its 50-day median on 2025-06-25; price +2.6% that day.
  4. Mar '25Fell 52% from the Jul 2024 peak to the Mar 2025 low.
  5. Mar '25Moved into the top quartile of Electronic Technology on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  6. Feb '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.38x.
  7. Feb '25Share count is up 200.0% over 12 months.
  8. Dec '24FII + DII holding fell 5.5 pts over 1 quarter to 1.1%.
  9. Oct '24Volume reached 6.2x its 50-day median on 2024-10-17; price -4.9% that day.
  10. Jun '24Moved into the top quartile of Electronic Technology on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  11. Jun '24Debt / equity fell below 1.0x (0.38x).
  12. Apr '24Regained the 2024-02 peak, 1 month after the low.
  13. Mar '24Fell 38% from the Feb 2024 peak to the Mar 2024 low.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 7 checks are within range, 3 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance4%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 3.6%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate28%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 27.5%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion-0.17xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: -0.17x (cash from operations ₹-52 cr, net profit ₹312 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow1 of 5 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 1. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-19 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 19 days (42 vs 61). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress107% of fixed assetsBeyond threshold

Capital work-in-progress is 107% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days+2 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by +2 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, promoters trimmed 2.9 pts; FIIs trimmed 1.7 pts; DIIs trimmed 1.4 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 2,224 to 8,517 (+283%) between Mar 2024 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupMar '24Jun '26Change
Promoters68.8%65.9%-2.9 pts
FIIs4.9%3.1%-1.7 pts
DIIs1.8%0.4%-1.4 pts
Public and others24.6%30.6%+6.0 pts

Number of shareholders

8,517shareholders+283% since Mar '24
2k4k6k9k Mar '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26Jun '26
Mar '24: 2,224
Sep '24: 4,544
Mar '25: 5,730
Jun '25: 6,010
Sep '25: 6,397
Dec '25: 7,354
Mar '26: 8,032
Jun '26: 8,517
2k4k6k9k Mar '24Jun '25Mar '26Jun '26
Mar '24: 2,224
Sep '24: 4,544
Mar '25: 5,730
Jun '25: 6,010
Sep '25: 6,397
Dec '25: 7,354
Mar '26: 8,032
Jun '26: 8,517

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-52.5%recovered 2025-06
1-year volatility52.2%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.933-year daily, correlation 0.42
Volume spikes1last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹332₹635₹937₹1,239 Feb '24Sep '24Apr '25Nov '25Jun '26Oct '26
2024-02: ₹389.40
2024-03: ₹332.30
2024-04: ₹562.35
2024-05: ₹632.30
2024-06: ₹937.10
2024-07: ₹731.80
2024-08: ₹941.95
2024-09: ₹780.60
2024-10: ₹871.15
2024-11: ₹807.80
2024-12: ₹848.15
2025-01: ₹662.45
2025-02: ₹587.80
2025-03: ₹566.90
2025-04: ₹769.20
2025-05: ₹918.90
2025-06: ₹1131.50
2025-07: ₹1219.95
2025-08: ₹1239.35
2025-09: ₹1157.90
2025-10: ₹1200.05
2025-11: ₹1160.25
2025-12: ₹821.55
2026-01: ₹753.35
2026-02: ₹769.85
2026-03: ₹759.25
2026-04: ₹1091.65
2026-05: ₹996.25
2026-06: ₹885.65
2026-07: ₹829.05
2026-08: ₹831.70
2026-09: ₹847.10
2026-10: ₹660.40
₹332₹635₹937₹1,239 Feb '24Jan '25Dec '25Oct '26
2024-02: ₹389.40
2024-03: ₹332.30
2024-04: ₹562.35
2024-05: ₹632.30
2024-06: ₹937.10
2024-07: ₹731.80
2024-08: ₹941.95
2024-09: ₹780.60
2024-10: ₹871.15
2024-11: ₹807.80
2024-12: ₹848.15
2025-01: ₹662.45
2025-02: ₹587.80
2025-03: ₹566.90
2025-04: ₹769.20
2025-05: ₹918.90
2025-06: ₹1131.50
2025-07: ₹1219.95
2025-08: ₹1239.35
2025-09: ₹1157.90
2025-10: ₹1200.05
2025-11: ₹1160.25
2025-12: ₹821.55
2026-01: ₹753.35
2026-02: ₹769.85
2026-03: ₹759.25
2026-04: ₹1091.65
2026-05: ₹996.25
2026-06: ₹885.65
2026-07: ₹829.05
2026-08: ₹831.70
2026-09: ₹847.10
2026-10: ₹660.40

Last 90 trading days

₹660₹753₹846₹938 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹923.40
2026-06-25: ₹922.55
2026-06-30: ₹885.65
2026-07-02: ₹886.85
2026-07-06: ₹807.90
2026-07-08: ₹775.30
2026-07-10: ₹800.05
2026-07-14: ₹801.25
2026-07-16: ₹862.45
2026-07-20: ₹899.30
2026-07-22: ₹848.15
2026-07-24: ₹836.35
2026-07-28: ₹816.60
2026-07-30: ₹821.80
2026-08-03: ₹841.45
2026-08-05: ₹816.95
2026-08-07: ₹803.95
2026-08-11: ₹793.65
2026-08-13: ₹762.00
2026-08-17: ₹772.95
2026-08-19: ₹857.55
2026-08-21: ₹815.80
2026-08-25: ₹853.20
2026-08-27: ₹861.20
2026-08-31: ₹831.70
2026-09-02: ₹866.85
2026-09-04: ₹889.30
2026-09-08: ₹924.90
2026-09-10: ₹898.90
2026-09-15: ₹906.35
2026-09-17: ₹911.60
2026-09-21: ₹880.25
2026-09-23: ₹846.00
2026-09-25: ₹862.65
2026-09-29: ₹865.30
2026-10-01: ₹823.20
2026-10-06: ₹814.15
2026-10-08: ₹814.20
2026-10-12: ₹790.20
2026-10-14: ₹790.80
2026-10-16: ₹780.30
2026-10-21: ₹743.40
2026-10-23: ₹674.55
2026-10-27: ₹695.85
2026-10-29: ₹674.00
2026-10-30: ₹660.40
₹660₹753₹846₹938 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹923.40
2026-06-25: ₹922.55
2026-06-30: ₹885.65
2026-07-02: ₹886.85
2026-07-06: ₹807.90
2026-07-08: ₹775.30
2026-07-10: ₹800.05
2026-07-14: ₹801.25
2026-07-16: ₹862.45
2026-07-20: ₹899.30
2026-07-22: ₹848.15
2026-07-24: ₹836.35
2026-07-28: ₹816.60
2026-07-30: ₹821.80
2026-08-03: ₹841.45
2026-08-05: ₹816.95
2026-08-07: ₹803.95
2026-08-11: ₹793.65
2026-08-13: ₹762.00
2026-08-17: ₹772.95
2026-08-19: ₹857.55
2026-08-21: ₹815.80
2026-08-25: ₹853.20
2026-08-27: ₹861.20
2026-08-31: ₹831.70
2026-09-02: ₹866.85
2026-09-04: ₹889.30
2026-09-08: ₹924.90
2026-09-10: ₹898.90
2026-09-15: ₹906.35
2026-09-17: ₹911.60
2026-09-21: ₹880.25
2026-09-23: ₹846.00
2026-09-25: ₹862.65
2026-09-29: ₹865.30
2026-10-01: ₹823.20
2026-10-06: ₹814.15
2026-10-08: ₹814.20
2026-10-12: ₹790.20
2026-10-14: ₹790.80
2026-10-16: ₹780.30
2026-10-21: ₹743.40
2026-10-23: ₹674.55
2026-10-27: ₹695.85
2026-10-29: ₹674.00
2026-10-30: ₹660.40

Drawdown from peak

0% -26% -51% Feb '24Jun '25Oct '26 0% -26% -51% Feb '24Jun '25Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-52.5% (2024-07 peak to 2025-03 low, recovered 2025-06)

-51.3% (2025-09 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-37.5% (2024-02 peak to 2024-03 low, recovered 2024-04)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-08-18: 6.8x the 50-day median, price +12.7% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Electronic Technology peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Electronic Technology peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Electronic Technology sector page Watch it move against Electronic Technology in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
ORIANA POWER (ORIANA)Industrial Services71%ROCE, P/E
DYNACONS SYSTEMS & SOLUTIONS (DSSL)Technology Services67%debt/equity, ROCE
SOLEX ENERGY (SOLEX)Producer Manufacturing63%promoter holding, P/E
GPT INFRAPROJECTS (GPTINFRA)Industrial Services55%market cap, operating margin
INDO AMINES (INDOAMIN)Process Industries50%operating margin, debt/equity
PACE DIGITEK (PACEDIGITK)Electronic Technology42%P/E, operating margin
HPL ELECTRIC & POWER (HPL)Electronic Technology24%market cap, revenue
OSEL DEVICES (OSELDEVICE)Electronic Technology20%promoter holding, volatility

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+5.7%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like ALPEX SOLAR LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −19% to +68% vs the market, against 0% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+5.9%, 80% range −4.1% to +10.6%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−50%0%+50%+100%
RTNINDIA · Nov 2024: −36.7% vs market
KHAICHEM · Apr 2023: −35.7% vs market
RUSHIL · Jul 2025: −33.5% vs market
KANPRPLA · May 2022: −32.0% vs market
KUANTUM · May 2024: −28.6% vs market
APCL · May 2023: −27.7% vs market
INDORAMA · Feb 2023: −26.4% vs market
SATIA · Jun 2023: −23.8% vs market
WELCORP · Oct 2020: −22.1% vs market
WSI · Feb 2025: −21.3% vs market
SJLOGISTIC · Sep 2025: −19.8% vs market
SPIC · Dec 2023: −19.6% vs market
LYKALABS · May 2023: −19.4% vs market
IGPL · Sep 2022: −18.9% vs market
SHAKTIPUMP · Apr 2022: −16.6% vs market
UTTAMSUGAR · Jun 2024: −14.5% vs market
HARRMALAYA · Feb 2022: −10.4% vs market
POWERMECH · Apr 2020: −5.9% vs market
VISHNUINFR · Oct 2025: −4.3% vs market
WSTCSTPAPR · Sep 2020: −4.0% vs market
TIRUMALCHM · Jan 2023: −3.1% vs market
ESTER · Dec 2021: −1.6% vs market
HARIOMPIPE · May 2025: −0.9% vs market
JKPAPER · Jul 2023: +3.8% vs market
CHEMPLASTS · Nov 2022: +5.7% vs market
NCLIND · Mar 2022: +5.7% vs market
SALZERELEC · Sep 2020: +6.4% vs market
MBAPL · Apr 2024: +9.7% vs market
PNCINFRA · Dec 2020: +10.5% vs market
GSPL · Jan 2021: +11.7% vs market
DSSL · Sep 2025: +13.9% vs market
RKEC · Oct 2020: +21.8% vs market
NITINSPIN · Jan 2023: +27.3% vs market
GLOBUSSPR · Apr 2024: +30.4% vs market
VADILALIND · Dec 2023: +34.1% vs market
VISHNU · Feb 2024: +38.7% vs market
EPIGRAL · Dec 2023: +65.0% vs market
STLTECH · Mar 2020: +69.1% vs market
PCBL · Mar 2020: +69.3% vs market
DEEPAKFERT · Nov 2023: +69.4% vs market
MADHUSUDAN · Sep 2025: +70.5% vs market
IIFLCAPS · Feb 2023: +81.5% vs market
POKARNA · Feb 2020: +83.5% vs market
HGINFRA · Dec 2020: +96.5% vs market
ROSSELLIND · Jan 2022: +111.9% vs market
TRIVENI · Dec 2020: +130.0% vs market
BIRLANU · Mar 2020: +169.2% vs market
HFCL · May 2020: +173.4% vs market
SURYAROSNI · Apr 2020: +186.9% vs market
REFEX · May 2024: +219.8% vs market
Similar setups +5.7%All companies −0.2%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 6 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+5.7%
All companies' median
−0.2%
Beat the market
54% vs 50%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 34 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
UTTAMSUGAR
Process Industries
Jun 2024 10x— +2%−34% −15%
SURYAROSNI
Non-Energy Minerals
Apr 2020 4x— −62%−65% +187%
VISHNUINFR
Industrial Services
Oct 2025 13x— −41%−45% −4%
HARIOMPIPE
Non-Energy Minerals
May 2025 19x— −27%−55% −1%
APCL
Non-Energy Minerals
May 2023 15x— −23%−36% −28%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
ROSSELLIND
Electronic Technology
Jan 2022 16x— +15%−31% +112%
SJLOGISTIC
Transportation
Sep 2025 11x37% −36%−46% −20%
MBAPL
Process Industries
Apr 2024 17x38% −20%−27% +10%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high and interest cover. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 5 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to ALPEX SOLAR LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (33 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-108.4x₹2346 cr35.6%45.0%1.0x
2026-0910.8x₹2346 cr35.6%45.0%1.0x
2026-0810.4x₹2223 cr35.9%45.0%1.0x
2026-0710.4x₹2223 cr35.9%45.0%1.0x
2026-0611.1x₹2223 cr35.9%45.0%1.0x
2026-0513.5x₹1878 cr85.2%51.0%0.4x
2026-0414.8x₹1878 cr85.2%51.0%0.4x
2026-0310.3x₹1878 cr85.2%51.0%0.4x
2026-0212.4x₹1418 cr70.8%51.0%0.4x
2026-0112.2x₹1418 cr70.8%51.0%0.4x
2025-1213.3x₹1418 cr70.8%51.0%0.4x
2025-1122.8x₹1083 cr57.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-1023.5x₹1083 cr57.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-0922.7x₹1083 cr57.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-0836.3x₹780 cr38.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-0735.8x₹780 cr38.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-0633.2x₹780 cr38.4%51.0%0.4x
2025-0541.3x₹574 cr41.5%26.0%0.4x
2025-0434.6x₹574 cr41.5%26.0%0.4x
2025-0325.5x₹574 cr41.5%26.0%0.4x
2025-0238.7x₹465 cr27.7%26.0%0.4x
2025-0143.6x₹465 cr27.7%26.0%0.4x
2024-1255.8x₹465 cr27.7%26.0%0.4x
2024-1174.4x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-1080.2x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-0971.9x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-0886.7x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-0767.4x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-0686.3x₹413 cr20.8%26.0%0.4x
2024-05—₹195 cr9.8%14.0%1.1x
2024-04—₹195 cr9.8%14.0%1.1x
2024-03—₹195 cr9.8%14.0%1.1x
2024-02—₹195 cr9.8%14.0%1.1x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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