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ORIANA POWER LIMITED (ORIANA)

Industrial Services

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.74 / 100
Profitability 96Growth 96Balance sheet 30
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.38 / 100
Price 24Earnings 58FII/DII 34

Passes these screens: Cash Rich · Quality Compounder · Little growth priced in · Consistent compounders

Share Price
₹230.70
P/E
9.3x
ROCE
40.0%
Market Cap
₹2341 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹1814 cr
P/S
1.3x
P/B
3.1x
ROE
33.0%
Debt / Equity
0.7x
Promoter Holding
58.0%
12M Momentum
-61.6%
P/E vs its own history3rd percentilesince Aug '23
P/E vs Industrial Services0.7xthe sector median

52-week range

₹222.00₹612.80
2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
52.3%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.93

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
6.5x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
1.27x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-62%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 30 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 38.4x to 9.3x), which took 91 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: +30 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+30 ptsP/E change: -92 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-92 ptsShare count change: +0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -62% 1 year Net profit growth: +30 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+30 ptsP/E change: -92 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-92 ptsShare count change: +0 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -62%
Net profit growth+30 ptsNet profit rose about 59%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-91 ptsThe P/E fell from 38.4x to 9.3x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
+244%share price, 3 yearsLower P/E held it back

Mostly yes, with a catch.

  • Per-share earnings added 545 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 42.8x to 9.3x), which took 301 points back.
  • The share count rose 45%.
3 years Net profit growth: +618 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+618 ptsP/E change: -301 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-301 ptsShare count change: -73 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +244% 3 years Net profit growth: +618 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+618 ptsP/E change: -301 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-301 ptsShare count change: -73 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +244%
Net profit growth+618 ptsNet profit rose about 2191%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-301 ptsThe P/E fell from 42.8x to 9.3x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-73 ptsShare count rose 45%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with LARSEN AND TOUBRO

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

9.3xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history3rd percentileMedian 43.7x; usual range 12.6x to 88.7x since 2023-08.
Against Industrial Services9.3x vs 13.5xBelow the Industrial Services median.
9.3x99.5x189.8x280.0xAug '23Apr '24Dec '24Aug '25Apr '26Oct '269.3x99.5x189.8x280.0xAug '23Sep '24Oct '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianIndustrial Services median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianIndustrial Services median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianIndustrial Services median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Industrial Services is valued

What is the price implying?

~18%annual earnings growth implied by the priceBelow delivered growth

At normalised P/E (five-year average earnings) of 24.2x, a holder earning 12%/yr needs earnings to grow about 17.5%/yr for 10 years, then trade at 15x.

Delivered150.6%/yrEPS, last 6 fiscal years · 3-yr avg to 3-yr avg
Gap−42.5 ptsimplied minus delivered
Rank835thmost demanding of 843

Over time

Implied growth by month (solid) and delivered growth (dashed).

0%75%151% Aug 2023Oct 2026 0%75%151% Aug 2023Oct 2026

Change the assumptions

Exit P/E / return11%12%13%
12x19.1%20.2%21.2%
15x16.5%17.5%18.5%
20x13.1%14.2%15.2%
Implied: 17.5%/yr

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect. How this is calculated and the market-wide lists.

What prices imply across Industrial Services The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 62% from the Oct 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Sep '26Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2026-09-25; price +8.9% that day.
  3. Jun '26Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹1,814 cr.
  4. May '26Volume reached 5.3x its 50-day median on 2026-05-29; price -7.2% that day.
  5. Feb '26Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.53x.
  6. Dec '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (28.8x).
  7. Nov '25Volume reached 5.0x its 50-day median on 2025-11-14; price +0.0% that day.
  8. Oct '25Regained the 2024-06 peak, 7 months after the low.
Show 16 earlier events
  1. Sep '25Share count is up 5.3% over 12 months.
  2. Sep '25Volume reached 5.6x its 50-day median on 2025-09-30; price +5.0% that day.
  3. Aug '25P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (29.6x).
  4. Jul '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.53x.
  5. Jun '25Promoter holding fell 3.4 pts to 58.0%.
  6. Jun '25Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹987 cr.
  7. Jun '25Debt / equity fell below 1.0x (0.53x).
  8. Jun '25Volume reached 5.4x its 50-day median on 2025-06-03; price +5.0% that day.
  9. Mar '25Fell 64% from the Jun 2024 peak to the Mar 2025 low.
  10. Aug '24Share count is up 171.4% over 12 months.
  11. Aug '24Volume reached 5.9x its 50-day median on 2024-08-02; price -0.1% that day.
  12. Jun '24FII + DII holding fell 3.6 pts over 1 quarter to 3.1%.
  13. May '24Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2024-05-09; price +4.0% that day.
  14. Apr '24Regained the 2024-02 peak, 1 month after the low.
  15. Mar '24Fell 30% from the Feb 2024 peak to the Mar 2024 low.
  16. Dec '23Volume reached 5.6x its 50-day median on 2023-12-14; price +11.2% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

3 of 5 checks are within range, 2 near a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance8%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 7.8%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Cash conversion1.27xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 1.27x (cash from operations ₹590 cr, net profit ₹465 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history+36 daysNear threshold

Debtor days are above the median of the previous three fiscal years by 36 days (135 vs 99). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress47% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 47% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, DIIs trimmed 3.6 pts; promoters trimmed 3.4 pts; FIIs trimmed 2.4 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 1,302 to 15,186 (+1066%) between Sep 2023 and Mar 2026.

Holdings, Mar '26

How each group changed

GroupSep '23Mar '26Change
Promoters61.4%58.0%-3.4 pts
FIIs2.8%0.3%-2.4 pts
DIIs4.0%0.3%-3.6 pts
Public and others31.9%41.4%+9.5 pts

Number of shareholders

15,186shareholders+1066% since Sep '23
1k6k11k15k Sep '23Mar '24Sep '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26
Sep '23: 1,302
Mar '24: 4,024
Sep '24: 9,857
Mar '25: 14,458
Sep '25: 14,167
Mar '26: 15,186
1k6k11k15k Sep '23Sep '24Sep '25Mar '26
Sep '23: 1,302
Mar '24: 4,024
Sep '24: 9,857
Mar '25: 14,458
Sep '25: 14,167
Mar '26: 15,186

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-64.5%recovered 2025-10
1-year volatility52.3%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.913-year daily, correlation 0.34
Volume spikes1last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹67₹245₹423₹600 Aug '23Apr '24Dec '24Aug '25Apr '26Oct '26
2023-08: ₹71.45
2023-09: ₹68.00
2023-10: ₹67.15
2023-11: ₹72.50
2023-12: ₹94.20
2024-01: ₹132.20
2024-02: ₹158.75
2024-03: ₹148.40
2024-04: ₹305.40
2024-05: ₹439.60
2024-06: ₹494.75
2024-07: ₹401.40
2024-08: ₹417.75
2024-09: ₹425.10
2024-10: ₹456.45
2024-11: ₹434.45
2024-12: ₹452.85
2025-01: ₹341.55
2025-02: ₹248.05
2025-03: ₹261.95
2025-04: ₹289.10
2025-05: ₹357.15
2025-06: ₹437.30
2025-07: ₹444.75
2025-08: ₹462.55
2025-09: ₹528.90
2025-10: ₹600.20
2025-11: ₹508.90
2025-12: ₹449.40
2026-01: ₹312.35
2026-02: ₹377.75
2026-03: ₹308.85
2026-04: ₹422.65
2026-05: ₹357.10
2026-06: ₹311.80
2026-07: ₹275.80
2026-08: ₹247.60
2026-09: ₹314.75
2026-10: ₹230.70
₹67₹245₹423₹600 Aug '23Sep '24Oct '25Oct '26
2023-08: ₹71.45
2023-09: ₹68.00
2023-10: ₹67.15
2023-11: ₹72.50
2023-12: ₹94.20
2024-01: ₹132.20
2024-02: ₹158.75
2024-03: ₹148.40
2024-04: ₹305.40
2024-05: ₹439.60
2024-06: ₹494.75
2024-07: ₹401.40
2024-08: ₹417.75
2024-09: ₹425.10
2024-10: ₹456.45
2024-11: ₹434.45
2024-12: ₹452.85
2025-01: ₹341.55
2025-02: ₹248.05
2025-03: ₹261.95
2025-04: ₹289.10
2025-05: ₹357.15
2025-06: ₹437.30
2025-07: ₹444.75
2025-08: ₹462.55
2025-09: ₹528.90
2025-10: ₹600.20
2025-11: ₹508.90
2025-12: ₹449.40
2026-01: ₹312.35
2026-02: ₹377.75
2026-03: ₹308.85
2026-04: ₹422.65
2026-05: ₹357.10
2026-06: ₹311.80
2026-07: ₹275.80
2026-08: ₹247.60
2026-09: ₹314.75
2026-10: ₹230.70

Last 90 trading days

₹231₹264₹297₹331 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹321.15
2026-06-25: ₹319.10
2026-06-30: ₹311.80
2026-07-02: ₹319.40
2026-07-06: ₹310.60
2026-07-08: ₹292.90
2026-07-10: ₹295.60
2026-07-14: ₹299.70
2026-07-16: ₹295.25
2026-07-20: ₹288.00
2026-07-22: ₹287.00
2026-07-24: ₹279.65
2026-07-28: ₹280.60
2026-07-30: ₹282.45
2026-08-03: ₹294.85
2026-08-05: ₹286.15
2026-08-07: ₹289.75
2026-08-11: ₹278.30
2026-08-13: ₹267.45
2026-08-17: ₹249.20
2026-08-19: ₹242.50
2026-08-21: ₹238.40
2026-08-25: ₹266.60
2026-08-27: ₹260.40
2026-08-31: ₹247.60
2026-09-02: ₹244.40
2026-09-04: ₹241.15
2026-09-08: ₹243.55
2026-09-10: ₹244.45
2026-09-15: ₹254.15
2026-09-17: ₹269.75
2026-09-21: ₹271.30
2026-09-23: ₹308.30
2026-09-25: ₹330.75
2026-09-29: ₹317.20
2026-10-01: ₹303.45
2026-10-06: ₹303.30
2026-10-08: ₹294.90
2026-10-12: ₹278.80
2026-10-14: ₹277.05
2026-10-16: ₹268.05
2026-10-21: ₹248.60
2026-10-23: ₹237.40
2026-10-27: ₹241.25
2026-10-29: ₹232.20
2026-10-30: ₹230.70
₹231₹264₹297₹331 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹321.15
2026-06-25: ₹319.10
2026-06-30: ₹311.80
2026-07-02: ₹319.40
2026-07-06: ₹310.60
2026-07-08: ₹292.90
2026-07-10: ₹295.60
2026-07-14: ₹299.70
2026-07-16: ₹295.25
2026-07-20: ₹288.00
2026-07-22: ₹287.00
2026-07-24: ₹279.65
2026-07-28: ₹280.60
2026-07-30: ₹282.45
2026-08-03: ₹294.85
2026-08-05: ₹286.15
2026-08-07: ₹289.75
2026-08-11: ₹278.30
2026-08-13: ₹267.45
2026-08-17: ₹249.20
2026-08-19: ₹242.50
2026-08-21: ₹238.40
2026-08-25: ₹266.60
2026-08-27: ₹260.40
2026-08-31: ₹247.60
2026-09-02: ₹244.40
2026-09-04: ₹241.15
2026-09-08: ₹243.55
2026-09-10: ₹244.45
2026-09-15: ₹254.15
2026-09-17: ₹269.75
2026-09-21: ₹271.30
2026-09-23: ₹308.30
2026-09-25: ₹330.75
2026-09-29: ₹317.20
2026-10-01: ₹303.45
2026-10-06: ₹303.30
2026-10-08: ₹294.90
2026-10-12: ₹278.80
2026-10-14: ₹277.05
2026-10-16: ₹268.05
2026-10-21: ₹248.60
2026-10-23: ₹237.40
2026-10-27: ₹241.25
2026-10-29: ₹232.20
2026-10-30: ₹230.70

Drawdown from peak

0% -31% -63% Aug '23Mar '25Oct '26 0% -31% -63% Aug '23Mar '25Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-64.5% (2024-06 peak to 2025-03 low, recovered 2025-10)

-61.6% (2025-10 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-29.6% (2024-02 peak to 2024-03 low, recovered 2024-04)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-09-25: 5.5x the 50-day median, price +8.9% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Industrial Services peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Industrial Services peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Industrial Services sector page Watch it move against Industrial Services in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
ALPEX SOLAR (ALPEXSOLAR)Electronic Technology71%ROCE, P/E
DYNACONS SYSTEMS & SOLUTIONS (DSSL)Technology Services62%debt/equity, revenue
SOLEX ENERGY (SOLEX)Producer Manufacturing61%revenue growth, EPS growth
SUN PHARMA ADVANCED RESEARCH C (SPARC)Health Technology60%revenue growth, revenue
JEENA SIKHO LIFECARE (JSLL)Health Services54%revenue growth, EPS growth
VIVIANA POWER TECH (VIVIANA)Industrial Services47%EPS growth, revenue growth
GPT INFRAPROJECTS (GPTINFRA)Industrial Services45%revenue, debt/equity
SEAMEC (SEAMECLTD)Industrial Services41%EPS growth, revenue growth

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+2.7%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like ORIANA POWER LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −14% to +21% vs the market, against −1% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+3.4%, 80% range −6.3% to +7.3%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−50%0%+50%+100%
RTNINDIA · Feb 2025: −40.8% vs market
SONATSOFTW · Mar 2025: −37.7% vs market
KHAICHEM · Mar 2023: −35.4% vs market
SMSPHARMA · Mar 2022: −34.4% vs market
INDORAMA · Apr 2023: −32.7% vs market
GULPOLY · Jan 2023: −25.8% vs market
UTTAMSUGAR · Oct 2024: −25.6% vs market
WSI · Feb 2025: −21.3% vs market
VALIANTORG · May 2022: −19.4% vs market
VISHNU · Aug 2023: −16.3% vs market
HARIOMPIPE · Apr 2025: −15.5% vs market
IGPL · Oct 2022: −14.6% vs market
SHAREINDIA · Apr 2025: −13.9% vs market
APCL · Oct 2022: −13.7% vs market
VISHNUINFR · Sep 2025: −12.5% vs market
WELCORP · Feb 2021: −9.0% vs market
SJLOGISTIC · Oct 2025: −8.8% vs market
GREENPANEL · Feb 2023: −7.9% vs market
AARTIDRUGS · Apr 2022: −7.5% vs market
FOCUS · Aug 2024: −7.5% vs market
HERANBA · Aug 2023: −5.8% vs market
ASTRON · May 2020: −4.1% vs market
WSTCSTPAPR · Sep 2020: −4.0% vs market
TIRUMALCHM · Oct 2022: −3.3% vs market
KPIL · Sep 2020: +0.9% vs market
FAIRCHEMOR · Feb 2023: +4.5% vs market
PUNJABCHEM · May 2023: +4.7% vs market
SHAKTIPUMP · May 2022: +5.4% vs market
KHADIM · Mar 2020: +6.4% vs market
ARIHANTCAP · Apr 2023: +7.6% vs market
CHEMPLASTS · Oct 2022: +7.8% vs market
MBAPL · Apr 2024: +9.7% vs market
GSPL · Jan 2021: +11.7% vs market
KOTYARK · May 2025: +11.9% vs market
POWERMECH · May 2020: +13.0% vs market
IIFLCAPS · Sep 2022: +13.4% vs market
SADHAV · Jun 2025: +13.6% vs market
EPIGRAL · Jul 2023: +23.7% vs market
GLOBUSSPR · May 2024: +28.5% vs market
SATIA · May 2021: +29.0% vs market
VADILALIND · Dec 2023: +34.1% vs market
DEEPAKFERT · Oct 2023: +39.8% vs market
CARYSIL · Jan 2023: +41.7% vs market
SANGHVIMOV · Jun 2025: +56.7% vs market
STLTECH · Feb 2020: +66.6% vs market
POKARNA · Feb 2020: +83.5% vs market
HGINFRA · Dec 2020: +96.5% vs market
SOBHA · Sep 2020: +117.0% vs market
MANINFRA · Jan 2023: +133.2% vs market
ROSSELLIND · Nov 2021: +154.5% vs market
Similar setups +2.7%All companies −0.7%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+2.7%
All companies' median
−0.7%
Beat the market
52% vs 49%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 34 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
EPIGRAL
Process Industries
Jul 2023 11x32% −37%−44% +24%
MBAPL
Process Industries
Apr 2024 17x38% −20%−27% +10%
ROSSELLIND
Electronic Technology
Nov 2021 14x— −1%−38% +155%
VISHNUINFR
Industrial Services
Sep 2025 14x— −54%−57% −13%
GLOBUSSPR
Consumer Non-Durables
May 2024 17x— −31%−46% +29%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
STLTECH
Electronic Technology
Feb 2020 7x30% −62%−67% +67%
KHAICHEM
Process Industries
Mar 2023 8x36% −47%−56% −35%
SHAREINDIA
Finance
Apr 2025 7x38% −56%−57% −14%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, interest cover and P/S. Not used (unavailable for this company): operating margin. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to ORIANA POWER LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (39 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-109.3x₹1814 cr33.0%40.0%0.7x
2026-0912.7x₹1814 cr33.0%40.0%0.7x
2026-0810.0x₹1814 cr33.0%40.0%0.7x
2026-0711.1x₹1814 cr33.0%40.0%0.7x
2026-0612.6x₹1814 cr33.0%40.0%0.7x
2026-0522.9x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2026-0427.1x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2026-0319.8x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2026-0224.2x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2026-0120.0x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-1228.8x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-1132.6x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-1038.4x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-0933.9x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-0829.6x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-0728.5x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-0628.0x₹987 cr31.2%42.0%0.5x
2025-0563.0x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2025-0451.0x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2025-0346.2x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2025-0243.7x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2025-0160.2x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-1279.9x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-1176.6x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-1080.5x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-0975.0x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-0873.7x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-0770.8x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-0687.3x₹383 cr37.0%38.0%1.3x
2024-05280.0x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2024-04194.5x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2024-0394.5x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2024-02101.1x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2024-0184.2x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2023-1260.0x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2023-1146.2x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2023-1042.8x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2023-0943.3x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x
2023-0845.5x₹135 cr34.4%26.0%2.2x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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