52-week range
Price risk
Balance sheet & cash
Was the rally earned?
- The share price was roughly flat over 1 year (-3%).
- The share count barely moved.
What do "pts" mean?
"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.
Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.
Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.
Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.
What is the price implying?
At normalised P/E (five-year average earnings) of 45.6x, a holder earning 12%/yr needs earnings to grow about 24.1%/yr for 10 years, then trade at 15x.
Over time
Implied growth by month (solid) and delivered growth (dashed).
Change the assumptions
| Exit P/E / return | 11% | 12% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12x | 25.6% | 26.7% | 27.8% |
| 15x | 23.0% | 24.1% | 25.2% |
| 20x | 19.6% | 20.7% | 21.8% |
“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect. How this is calculated and the market-wide lists.
What prices imply across Producer Manufacturing The market-wide Expectations lists
What changed?
- Oct '26Fell 28% from the Jul 2026 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
- Oct '26Volume reached 37.3x its 50-day median on 2026-10-27; price +12.6% that day.
- Jul '26Regained the 2025-10 peak, 6 months after the low.
- Jul '26Volume reached 138.7x its 50-day median on 2026-07-02; price +8.2% that day.
- Jun '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
- May '26Volume reached 10.7x its 50-day median on 2026-05-07; price -0.1% that day.
- Mar '26Share count is up 116.7% over 12 months.
- Feb '26Volume reached 418.4x its 50-day median on 2026-02-17; price +8.0% that day.
Show 6 earlier events
- Jan '26Fell 42% from the Oct 2025 peak to the Jan 2026 low.
- Nov '25Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
- Oct '25Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2025-10-16; price +10.0% that day.
- Sep '25Volume reached 27.6x its 50-day median on 2025-09-02; price +6.0% that day.
- Jun '25Moved into the 2nd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
- May '25Volume reached 119.6x its 50-day median on 2025-05-08; price +10.9% that day.
Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.
Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month
Are profits backed by cash?
4 of 5 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.
Other income reliance8%Within range
Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 7.9%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.
Tax rate26%Within range
Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 26.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.
Cash conversion2.60xWithin range
Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 2.60x (cash from operations ₹260 cr, net profit ₹100 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.
Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold
Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.
Receivable days vs history—Not enough data
Not enough reported data to compute this.
Capital work in progress3% of fixed assetsWithin range
Capital work-in-progress is 3% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.
Payable days—Not enough data
Not enough reported data to compute this.
How to read this
Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.
Who has been buying and selling?
- Over 2 years, institutional and promoter holdings were broadly unchanged.
- The number of shareholders rose from 27,016 to 30,200 (+12%) between Dec 2024 and Jun 2026.
Holdings, Jun '26
How each group changed
Number of shareholders
Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.
How rough has the ride been?
Monthly share price
Last 90 trading days
Drawdown from peak
Largest drawdowns
-42.4% (2025-10 peak to 2026-01 low, recovered 2026-07)
-28.3% (2026-07 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)
Most recent volume spikes
2026-10-27: 37.3x the 50-day median, price +12.6% that day
2026-10-09: 18.2x the 50-day median, price +4.7% that day
2026-08-04: 9.3x the 50-day median, price +3.8% that day
Where does it rank among Producer Manufacturing peers?
Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Producer Manufacturing peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).
Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.
The Producer Manufacturing sector page Watch it move against Producer Manufacturing in the Observatory
What else looks like this?
Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.
| Company | Sector | Similarity | Closest on |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUMEET INDUSTRIES (SUMEETINDS) | Process Industries | 53% | P/E, operating margin |
| NELCAST (NELCAST) | Non-Energy Minerals | 51% | operating margin, market cap |
| MMP INDUSTRIES (MMP) | Non-Energy Minerals | 50% | market cap, promoter holding |
| UTSSAV CZ GOLD JEWELS (UTSSAV) | Consumer Durables | 50% | volatility, promoter holding |
| SHRINGAR HOUSE OF MANGALSUTRA (SHRINGARMS) | Consumer Durables | 48% | promoter holding, revenue |
| CARRARO INDIA (CARRARO) | Producer Manufacturing | 53% | revenue, operating margin |
| EPACK PREFAB TECHNOLOGIES (EPACKPEB) | Producer Manufacturing | 50% | ROCE, revenue |
| AUTOMOTIVE STAMPINGS AND ASSEM (ASAL) | Producer Manufacturing | 49% | operating margin, promoter holding |
Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.
What happened next to similar setups
- We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like BHARAT SEATS LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
- Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −27% to +65% vs the market, against −3% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
- The analogs' median sat above that base rate (gap +20.3%, 80% range +0.9% to +25.7%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.
Where the 50 outcomes landed
Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 3 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge
50 past situations · 50 companies · 31 months · 2020–2025
The closest matches
| Company | When | P/E | ROCE | 12M mom. | Drawdown | Next 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THANGAMAYL Consumer Durables |
Mar 2021 | 19x | 21% | +147% | −12% | +51% |
| PRICOLLTD Producer Manufacturing |
Aug 2021 | 26x | 16% | +129% | −16% | +85% |
| NACLIND Process Industries |
May 2022 | 32x | 17% | +43% | −23% | +22% |
| KAMDHENU Non-Energy Minerals |
Mar 2022 | 25x | 15% | +66% | −11% | +43% |
| AGARIND Process Industries |
Feb 2023 | 13x | 22% | +25% | −17% | +6% |
Show the other 3 matches
How reliable is this?
Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high and ROCE. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.
Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.
Monthly history (20 months)
| Month | P/E | Revenue (TTM) | ROE | ROCE | Debt / Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 26.5x | ₹2102 cr | 20.1% | 20.0% | 0.5x |
| 2026-09 | 28.8x | ₹2102 cr | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.5x |
| 2026-08 | 33.3x | ₹1951 cr | 18.3% | 20.0% | 0.5x |
| 2026-07 | 32.9x | ₹1951 cr | 18.3% | 20.0% | 0.5x |
| 2026-06 | 28.2x | ₹1951 cr | 18.3% | 20.0% | 0.5x |
| 2026-05 | 28.6x | ₹1770 cr | 20.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2026-04 | 29.1x | ₹1770 cr | 20.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2026-03 | 21.9x | ₹1770 cr | 20.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2026-02 | 31.4x | ₹1585 cr | 19.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2026-01 | 23.7x | ₹1585 cr | 19.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-12 | 28.4x | ₹1585 cr | 19.5% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-11 | 32.4x | ₹1417 cr | 17.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-10 | 36.0x | ₹1417 cr | 17.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-09 | 32.1x | ₹1417 cr | 17.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-08 | 28.4x | ₹1289 cr | 16.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-07 | 22.2x | ₹1289 cr | 16.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-06 | 20.3x | ₹1289 cr | 16.9% | 16.0% | 0.8x |
| 2025-05 | 22.1x | ₹1174 cr | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.0x |
| 2025-04 | 16.0x | ₹1174 cr | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.0x |
| 2025-03 | 16.3x | ₹1174 cr | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.0x |