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HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (HDBFS)

Finance · Finance/Rental/Leasing · figures to Nov '26

Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.24 / 100
Price 15Earnings 32
Compare withBAJAJ FINANCESHRIRAM FINANCECHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND F

Share price

Closing priceAdjusted for splits and bonus issues.

₹544.45 latest close · −27.1% over the last 90 sessions

₹500₹600₹700Jul 3Jul 29Aug 24Sep 17Oct 14Nov 9 ₹500₹600₹700Jul 3Sep 4Nov 9

₹544.45 month-end · −29.0% over 12 months

₹500₹600₹700Nov '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26Sep '26Nov '26 ₹500₹600₹700Nov '25May '26Nov '26

₹544.45 month-end · −28.2% since Jul '25

₹500₹600₹700₹800Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26May '26Aug '26Nov '26 ₹500₹600₹700₹800Jul '25Mar '26Nov '26

52-week range ₹494.15 to ₹796.70 · 1-year volatility 28.5%

Was the rally earned?

-29%share price, 1 yearMultiple-driven

Mostly the multiple.

  • Most of the fall came from investors paying a lower multiple (P/E 28.1x to 19.9x); per-share earnings added 0 points.
  • The share count barely moved.
P/E change: −29 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−29 ptsP/E changeShare price: −29%−29%Share priceP/E change: −29 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−29P/EShare price: −29%−29%Share price
Net profit growth0 ptsNet profit was little changed.
P/E change-29 ptsThe P/E fell from 28.1x to 19.9x, which lowers the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with BAJAJ FINANCE

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-42.3%not yet recovered
1-year volatility28.5%annualised
Volume spikes6last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Drawdown from peak

0%−20%−40%2026−42.3% 0%−20%−40%2026−42.3%
Largest drawdowns

-42.3% (2025-07 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-26: 7.3x the 50-day median, price -0.9% that day

2026-10-16: 14.9x the 50-day median, price -4.9% that day

2026-10-15: 16.2x the 50-day median, price -7.6% that day

Where does it rank among Finance peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Finance peers (banks and financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

Where it ranks today

  • ROE (approx.)79th▲ 5 pts vs a year ago
  • EPS growth21st
  • P/B ↓25th▲ 7 pts vs a year ago
  • 12M momentum11th
  • FII + DII38th

Rank history

ROE (approx.)
EPS growth
P/B ↓
12M momentum
FII + DII
Dec '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26Nov '26
Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Finance sector page Watch it move against Finance in the Observatory

What is the price implying?

~17%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 25.0x, the price would imply about 17.2%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Earnings figures have not updated recently, so the company is left out of the lists.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Finance The market-wide Expectations lists

Key figures

Share Priceclose 9 Nov
₹544.45
P/E
19.9x
Market Cap
₹45198 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹16300 cr
P/S
2.8x
P/B
2.9x
ROE
15.0%
Debt / Equity
5.5x
Promoter Holding
74.1%
12M Momentum
-29.0%

52-week range

₹494.15₹796.70
17% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
28.5%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.89

Balance sheet & cash

Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Since Sep 2025, DIIs added 1.2 pts.
  • The number of shareholders fell from 11.6 lakh to 9.3 lakh (-20%) between Sep 2025 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupSep '25Jun '26Change
Promoters74.2%74.1%-0.1 pts
FIIs3.2%3.5%+0.4 pts
DIIs10.9%12.1%+1.2 pts
Public and others11.5%10.0%-1.5 pts

Number of shareholders

9.3 lakhshareholders-20% since Sep '25
9.3L10.0L10.8L11.6L Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26Jun '26
Sep '25: 11.6 lakh
Dec '25: 10.3 lakh
Mar '26: 9.6 lakh
Jun '26: 9.3 lakh
 9.3L10.0L10.8L11.6L Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26Jun '26
Sep '25: 11.6 lakh
Dec '25: 10.3 lakh
Mar '26: 9.6 lakh
Jun '26: 9.3 lakh

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

What happened next to similar setups

−4.0%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a bank, NBFC or insurer looked like HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −29% to +28% vs the market, against −2% for all financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (−2.1%, 80% range −14.9% to +8.6%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
UTKARSHBNK · Jul 2024: −53.9% vs market
IIFL · Jan 2024: −45.6% vs market
BANDHANBNK · Jun 2023: −42.5% vs market
MASFIN · Jun 2021: −42.4% vs market
TMB · Sep 2023: −40.7% vs market
REPCOHOME · Jan 2020: −38.6% vs market
SPANDANA · Jun 2021: −37.9% vs market
IRFC · Oct 2025: −37.1% vs market
MUTHOOTCAP · Jan 2021: −34.8% vs market
EQUITASBNK · May 2024: −34.6% vs market
AAVAS · Oct 2025: −31.9% vs market
UCOBANK · Oct 2025: −29.8% vs market
DCBBANK · Apr 2020: −29.6% vs market
BAJAJHFL · Oct 2025: −25.8% vs market
KARURVYSYA · Jan 2020: −25.6% vs market
LTF · May 2021: −25.1% vs market
CUB · May 2021: −24.8% vs market
RBLBANK · Nov 2021: −23.1% vs market
HOMEFIRST · Jul 2023: −19.0% vs market
CREDITACC · May 2024: −17.7% vs market
HUDCO · May 2025: −17.5% vs market
PNBHOUSING · Oct 2020: −14.3% vs market
IDBI · Jul 2021: −13.4% vs market
FEDERALBNK · May 2023: −9.9% vs market
CANFINHOME · Mar 2023: −4.2% vs market
LICHSGFIN · Mar 2022: −3.8% vs market
SBIN · Jun 2023: +1.2% vs market
KOTAKBANK · Jul 2021: +1.7% vs market
M&MFIN · Feb 2024: +1.8% vs market
MUTHOOTFIN · Aug 2023: +5.9% vs market
APTUS · Jul 2024: +10.1% vs market
FIVESTAR · Feb 2024: +12.4% vs market
SUNDARMFIN · Aug 2022: +13.0% vs market
YESBANK · Jul 2025: +14.2% vs market
SHRIRAMFIN · Mar 2022: +16.9% vs market
INDUSINDBK · Nov 2021: +21.0% vs market
AXISBANK · Nov 2021: +25.8% vs market
SBICARD · Jun 2024: +28.8% vs market
CSBBANK · Nov 2024: +29.0% vs market
MANAPPURAM · Jun 2022: +29.7% vs market
POONAWALLA · Nov 2024: +30.5% vs market
CHOLAFIN · Feb 2024: +34.1% vs market
BAJFINANCE · Jul 2024: +37.4% vs market
CHOLAHLDNG · Nov 2022: +45.4% vs market
MAHABANK · May 2022: +57.5% vs market
AUBANK · Nov 2024: +57.6% vs market
PAISALO · Jun 2020: +75.0% vs market
IDFCFIRSTB · May 2022: +80.8% vs market
PSB · Jun 2022: +88.7% vs market
IOB · Sep 2022: +130.2% vs market
Similar setups −4.0%All companies −1.9%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 1 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−4.0%
All companies' median
−1.9%
Beat the market
48% vs 48%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 30 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EP/B12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
SUNDARMFIN
Finance		 Aug 2022 20x2.9x −19%−19% +13%
MASFIN
Finance		 Jun 2021 33x4.0x +30%−20% −42%
AAVAS
Finance		 Oct 2025 27x3.5x −1%−26% −32%
IRFC
Finance		 Oct 2025 24x3.1x −21%−25% −37%
CUB
Finance		 May 2021 27x2.4x +27%−13% −25%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EP/B12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
BANDHANBNK
Finance		 Jun 2023 18x2.0x −8%−21% −43%
MUTHOOTFIN
Finance		 Aug 2023 14x2.4x +20%−8% +6%
KOTAKBANK
Finance		 Jul 2021 33x3.9x +21%−18% +2%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/B, ROE, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: drawdown from 12-month high, 12-month momentum and P/E. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-11-09. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 98,395 company-months from 2019 companies; financial: 5,659 company-months from 108 companies. 2349 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

SBI CARDS AND PAYMENT SERVSBICARD
Finance
79%similar
ROEvolatility
INDIAN RENEW. ENG.DEV. AGYIREDA
Finance
78%similar
market capP/B
AADHAR HOUSING FINANCEAADHARHFC
Finance
66%similar
P/Bvolatility

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What changed?

6 events since Dec '25

  1. OctPriceFell 42% from the Jul 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. OctPriceVolume reached 16.2x its 50-day median on 2026-10-15; price -7.6% that day.
  3. JulPriceVolume reached 8.6x its 50-day median on 2026-07-16; price +0.1% that day.
  4. AprPeer rankMoved into the top quartile of Finance on ROE (from the 2nd quartile).
  5. AprPriceVolume reached 15.1x its 50-day median on 2026-04-16; price +6.5% that day.
  6. DecPriceVolume reached 14.0x its 50-day median on 2025-12-19; price +3.4% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Monthly history17 months · 2025-07 to 2026-11
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEDebt / Equity
2026-1119.9x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-1018.2x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0922.7x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0825.0x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0725.1x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0627.5x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0524.4x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0424.0x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0320.5x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0225.8x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2026-0125.9x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-1228.0x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-1128.1x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-1026.7x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-0927.4x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-0828.5x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x
2025-0727.7x₹16300 cr15.0%5.5x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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