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EFC I LIMITED (EFCIL)

Distribution Services · Wholesale Distributors · figures to Nov '26

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.50 / 100
Profitability 94Balance sheet 6
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.51 / 100
Price 37Earnings 40FII/DII 76

Passes these screensQuality CompounderValue Pick

Compare withADANI ENTERPRISESAEGIS LOGISTICSSCHNEIDER ELECTRIC INFRA

Share price

Closing priceAdjusted for splits and bonus issues.

₹164.1 latest close · −19.8% over the last 90 sessions

₹160₹180₹200Jul 3Jul 29Aug 24Sep 17Oct 14Nov 9 ₹160₹180₹200Jul 3Sep 4Nov 9

₹164.1 month-end · −39.1% over 12 months

₹200₹250₹300Nov '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26Sep '26Nov '26 ₹200₹250₹300Nov '25May '26Nov '26

₹164.1 month-end · −50.7% since Aug '25

₹200₹300Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26Nov '26 ₹200₹300Aug '25Apr '26Nov '26

52-week range ₹160.64 to ₹310.14 · 1-year volatility 42.1%

Was the rally earned?

-39%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 18 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 18.0x to 8.7x), which took 57 points back.
  • The share count rose 20%.
Net profit growth: +32 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+32 ptsNet profit growthP/E change: −57 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−57 ptsP/E changeShare count change: −14 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.−14 ptsShare count changeShare price: −39%−39%Share priceNet profit growth: +32 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+32ProfitP/E change: −57 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−57P/EShare count change: −14 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.−14SharesShare price: −39%−39%Share price
Net profit growth+32 ptsNet profit rose about 51%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-57 ptsThe P/E fell from 18.0x to 8.7x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-14 ptsShare count rose 20%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with ADANI ENTERPRISES

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-51.7%not yet recovered
1-year volatility42.1%annualised
Volume spikes2last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Drawdown from peak

0%−20%−40%2026−51.7% 0%−20%−40%2026−51.7%
Largest drawdowns

-51.7% (2025-08 peak to 2026-11 low, not yet recovered)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-11-03: 8.1x the 50-day median, price -4.5% that day

2026-10-14: 12.8x the 50-day median, price +4.1% that day

Where does it rank among Distribution Services peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Distribution Services peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

Where it ranks today

  • ROCE88th▲ 4 pts vs a year ago
  • Op. margin100thflat vs a year ago
  • Revenue growth89th
  • EPS growth63rd
  • Debt/equity ↓5th▼ 6 pts vs a year ago
  • Cash cycle ↓49th▼ 18 pts vs a year ago
  • P/E ↓78th▲ 14 pts vs a year ago
  • 12M momentum22nd

Rank history

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Dec '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26Nov '26
Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Distribution Services sector page Watch it move against Distribution Services in the Observatory

What is the price implying?

~18%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 25.5x, the price would imply about 18.1%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Distribution Services The market-wide Expectations lists

Key figures

Share Priceclose 9 Nov
₹164.10
P/E
8.7x
ROCE
20.0%
Market Cap
₹2461 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹1101 cr
P/S
2.2x
P/B
3.0x
ROE
34.9%
Operating Margin
43.0%
Debt / Equity
1.7x
Promoter Holding
56.1%
12M Momentum
-39.1%

52-week range

₹160.64₹310.14
2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
42.1%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.44

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
7.4x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.81x
Share count, 1Y
+35.0%

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 5checks within range1 beyond a threshold
Other income reliance7%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 7.0%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate27%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 27.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.81xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.81x (cash from operations ₹354 cr, net profit ₹439 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow1 of 5 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 1. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Capital work in progress0% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 0% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Tap a check to see how it is measured

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Since Mar 2025, promoters added 10.5 pts; DIIs added 4.3 pts; FIIs trimmed 2.6 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 18,633 to 25,889 (+39%) between Mar 2025 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupMar '25Jun '26Change
Promoters45.5%56.1%+10.5 pts
FIIs3.9%1.3%-2.6 pts
DIIs4.6%8.9%+4.3 pts
Public and others46.0%33.8%-12.2 pts

Number of shareholders

25,889shareholders+39% since Mar '25
19k21k23k26k Mar '25Jun '25Sep '25Dec '25Mar '26Jun '26
Mar '25: 18,633
Jun '25: 21,021
Sep '25: 23,727
Dec '25: 25,196
Mar '26: 24,347
Jun '26: 25,889
 19k21k23k26k Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26Jun '26
Mar '25: 18,633
Jun '25: 21,021
Sep '25: 23,727
Dec '25: 25,196
Mar '26: 24,347
Jun '26: 25,889

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

What happened next to similar setups

+8.9%typical 12-month return vs the marketAbove the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like EFC I LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −18% to +43% vs the market, against −1% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The analogs' median sat above that base rate (gap +10.3%, 80% range +0.1% to +26.2%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
TICL · Aug 2025: −67.7% vs market
VALIANTORG · Apr 2023: −43.7% vs market
SPECIALITY · Sep 2023: −41.3% vs market
MUFTI · Feb 2025: −38.4% vs market
SMSPHARMA · Dec 2021: −37.9% vs market
RTNINDIA · Nov 2024: −36.7% vs market
CROWN · May 2025: −34.9% vs market
DYNPRO · May 2022: −33.6% vs market
ZEELEARN · May 2020: −33.2% vs market
NAVA · Jan 2020: −32.0% vs market
BHARATWIRE · Nov 2024: −26.6% vs market
VRLLOG · Feb 2024: −19.3% vs market
JKPAPER · May 2023: −18.4% vs market
VISHNU · Aug 2023: −16.3% vs market
SHK · Nov 2021: −14.1% vs market
MOTILALOFS · Aug 2021: −11.8% vs market
EPIGRAL · May 2023: −8.3% vs market
RADIOCITY · Jul 2021: −6.1% vs market
HIMATSEIDE · Jan 2020: −2.3% vs market
KAMATHOTEL · Dec 2024: −2.2% vs market
IIFLCAPS · Aug 2022: +1.6% vs market
POKARNA · May 2023: +1.7% vs market
ABSMARINE · Jul 2025: +3.4% vs market
CESC · Dec 2020: +5.5% vs market
CANTABIL · Apr 2024: +7.7% vs market
KPIGREEN · Apr 2025: +10.1% vs market
PNCINFRA · Dec 2020: +10.4% vs market
BFUTILITIE · Aug 2024: +10.8% vs market
MARATHON · May 2024: +23.4% vs market
ROHLTD · Jul 2024: +25.7% vs market
SATIA · Apr 2021: +26.5% vs market
DHAMPURSUG · Oct 2020: +29.0% vs market
ALICON · Mar 2020: +34.0% vs market
VADILALIND · Dec 2023: +34.2% vs market
JKLAKSHMI · May 2022: +36.8% vs market
MANGLMCEM · Aug 2020: +39.7% vs market
GHCL · Apr 2020: +40.7% vs market
HGINFRA · Oct 2022: +43.5% vs market
ARIHANTSUP · Oct 2023: +43.9% vs market
ARVSMART · May 2021: +46.1% vs market
STLTECH · Jun 2020: +46.9% vs market
DBL · Mar 2020: +52.9% vs market
INDUSTOWER · May 2023: +57.6% vs market
MMFL · Mar 2020: +64.4% vs market
SOBHA · Mar 2020: +81.6% vs market
RKFORGE · Mar 2020: +90.8% vs market
MANINFRA · Dec 2022: +130.0% vs market
SHAKTIPUMP · Mar 2020: +143.7% vs market
ROSSELLIND · Nov 2021: +154.2% vs market
BIRLANU · Apr 2020: +184.7% vs market
Similar setups +8.9%All companies −1.4%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 4 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+8.9%
All companies' median
−1.4%
Beat the market
60% vs 49%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 36 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
EPIGRAL
Process Industries		 May 2023 15x29% −34%−46% −8%
CANTABIL
Consumer Non-Durables		 Apr 2024 26x25% +6%−22% +8%
MOTILALOFS
Finance		 Aug 2021 10x22% +19%−28% −12%
MMFL
Producer Manufacturing		 Mar 2020 6x14% −69%−71% +64%
VADILALIND
Consumer Non-Durables		 Dec 2023 19x26% −4%−21% +34%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
VISHNU
Process Industries		 Aug 2023 14x30% −17%−24% −16%
RKFORGE
Producer Manufacturing		 Mar 2020 4x16% −71%−72% +91%
SOBHA
Finance		 Mar 2020 5x14% −74%−77% +82%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high and ROCE. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to EFC I LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-11-09. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 98,395 company-months from 2019 companies; financial: 5,659 company-months from 108 companies. 2349 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

BF UTILITIESBFUTILITIE
Industrial Services
75%similar
promoter holdingdebt/equity
HESTER BIOSCIENCESHESTERBIO
Health Technology
55%similar
volatilitypromoter holding
BHARAT WIRE ROPESBHARATWIRE
Producer Manufacturing
54%similar
debt/equityROCE
SIGNPOST INDIASIGNPOST
Commercial Services
53%similar
promoter holdingROCE
ARVIND SMARTSPACESARVSMART
Finance
52%similar
operating marginmarket cap
VINTAGE COFFEE AND BEVERAGESVINCOFE
Distribution Services
18%similar
volatilitymarket cap
JAY BHARAT MARUTIJAYBARMARU
Distribution Services
11%similar
P/Epromoter holding
SHREEJI GLOBAL FMCGSHETHJI
Distribution Services
7%similar
revenueROCE

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What changed?

8 events since Oct '25

  1. NovPriceFell 52% from the Aug 2025 peak to the Nov 2026 low.
  2. OctPriceVolume reached 12.8x its 50-day median on 2026-10-14; price +4.1% that day.
  3. SepPromoterPromoter holding fell 4.4 pts to 56.1%.
  4. AugSharesShare count is up 35.0% over 12 months.
  5. JunPriceVolume reached 5.2x its 50-day median on 2026-06-18; price -2.2% that day.
  6. MarPromoterPromoter holding rose 15.0 pts to 60.5%.
  7. FebPriceVolume reached 15.5x its 50-day median on 2026-02-24; price -8.2% that day.
  8. OctPriceVolume reached 16.6x its 50-day median on 2025-10-09; price +2.6% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Monthly history16 months · 2025-08 to 2026-11
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-118.7x₹1101 cr34.9%20.0%1.7x
2026-109.1x₹1101 cr34.9%20.0%1.7x
2026-099.2x₹1101 cr34.9%20.0%1.7x
2026-0811.3x₹1038 cr31.7%20.0%1.7x
2026-0710.7x₹1038 cr31.7%20.0%1.7x
2026-0610.4x₹1038 cr31.7%20.0%1.7x
2026-0510.3x₹956 cr40.2%21.0%1.5x
2026-0410.9x₹956 cr40.2%21.0%1.5x
2026-0310.0x₹956 cr40.2%21.0%1.5x
2026-0212.6x₹863 cr36.0%21.0%1.5x
2026-0114.5x₹863 cr36.0%21.0%1.5x
2025-1217.3x₹863 cr36.0%21.0%1.5x
2025-1118.0x₹774 cr32.3%21.0%1.5x
2025-1019.7x₹774 cr32.3%21.0%1.5x
2025-0920.1x₹774 cr32.3%21.0%1.5x
2025-0827.0x₹656 cr26.5%21.0%1.5x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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