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NRAGARWAL INDUSTRIES LTD (NRAIL)

Process Industries

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.37 / 100
Profitability 42Growth 49Balance sheet 19
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.77 / 100
Price 97Earnings 86FII/DII 48
Compare withJK PAPER LIMITEDANDHRA PAPER LIMITEDSESHASAYEE PAPER & BOARDS LTD

Passes these screens: High Momentum

Share Price
₹664.90
P/E
18.2x
ROCE
8.0%
Market Cap
₹1132 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹2340 cr
P/S
0.5x
P/B
1.4x
ROE
7.6%
Operating Margin
11.0%
Debt / Equity
1.0x
Promoter Holding
74.3%
12M Momentum
52.6%
P/E vs its own history84th percentilesince Jan '19
P/E vs Process Industries1.0xthe sector median

52-week range

₹385.00₹834.00
62% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
48.2%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.92

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
2.5x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
2.17x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

+53%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Mostly yes, with a catch.

  • Per-share earnings added 87 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 24.1x to 18.2x), which took 35 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: +87 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+87 ptsP/E change: -35 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-35 ptsShare count change: +1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +53% 1 year Net profit growth: +87 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+87 ptsP/E change: -35 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-35 ptsShare count change: +1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +53%
Net profit growth+87 ptsNet profit rose about 101%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-35 ptsThe P/E fell from 24.1x to 18.2x, which lowers the price.
Share count change+1 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
+82%share price, 3 yearsMultiple-driven

Partly.

  • Most of the rise came from investors paying a higher multiple (P/E 6.3x to 18.2x); per-share earnings took off 64 points.
  • The share count barely moved.
3 years Net profit growth: -64 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-64 ptsP/E change: +146 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+146 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +82% 3 years Net profit growth: -64 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).-64 ptsP/E change: +146 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+146 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +82%
Net profit growth-64 ptsNet profit fell about 37%, which lowers the price.
P/E change+146 ptsThe P/E rose from 6.3x to 18.2x, which lifts the price.
Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
+126%share price, 5 yearsMultiple-driven

Partly.

  • Most of the rise came from investors paying a higher multiple (P/E 8.8x to 18.2x); per-share earnings added 13 points.
  • The share count barely moved.
5 years Net profit growth: +13 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+13 ptsP/E change: +113 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+113 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +126% 5 years Net profit growth: +13 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).P/E change: +113 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.+113 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. +126%
Net profit growth+13 ptsNet profit rose about 9%, which lifts the price.
P/E change+113 ptsThe P/E rose from 8.8x to 18.2x, which lifts the price.
Share count change-1 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with JK PAPER

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

18.2xP/E todayNear its historic high
Against its own history84th percentileMedian 7.0x; usual range 3.2x to 25.3x since 2019-01.
Against Process Industries18.2x vs 18.0xClose to the Process Industries median.
2.6x14.8x27.1x39.3xJan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '262.6x14.8x27.1x39.3xJan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProcess Industries median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Process Industries is valued

What is the price implying?

~13%annual earnings growth implied by the priceAbove delivered growth

At normalised P/E (five-year average earnings) of 16.3x, a holder earning 12%/yr needs earnings to grow about 12.9%/yr for 10 years, then trade at 15x.

Delivered−3.2%/yrEPS, last 10 fiscal years · 3-yr avg to 3-yr avg
Gap+16.1 ptsimplied minus delivered
Rank199thmost demanding of 843

Over time

Implied growth by month (solid) and delivered growth (dashed).

-3%51%105% Jan 2019Oct 2026 -3%51%105% Jan 2019Oct 2026

Change the assumptions

Exit P/E / return11%12%13%
12x14.4%15.5%16.5%
15x11.9%12.9%13.9%
20x8.7%9.7%10.7%
Implied: 12.9%/yr

Looking back

  • Jan 2020Price implied 6%/yr; EPS has since grown −10%/yr (7.0 yrs)
  • Jan 2021Price implied −1%/yr; EPS has since grown −15%/yr (6.0 yrs)
  • Jan 2022Price implied 1%/yr; EPS has since grown −5%/yr (5.0 yrs)

Past comparisons cover only companies listed today (survivorship bias) and say nothing about future outcomes.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect. How this is calculated and the market-wide lists.

What prices imply across Process Industries The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Volume reached 38.7x its 50-day median on 2026-10-13; price +6.8% that day.
  2. Aug '26Regained the 2024-07 peak, 17 months after the low.
  3. Aug '26Volume reached 62.2x its 50-day median on 2026-08-06; price +7.0% that day.
  4. Jun '26Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  5. Jun '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the bottom quartile).
  6. Jun '26Debt / equity rose above 1.0x (1.01x).
  7. Jun '26Dividend payout cut from 39% to 0% of profit.
  8. May '26Volume reached 12.2x its 50-day median on 2026-05-06; price +0.5% that day.
Show 22 earlier events
  1. Mar '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  2. Feb '26Volume reached 9.1x its 50-day median on 2026-02-20; price +6.4% that day.
  3. Dec '25Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹1,861 cr.
  4. Dec '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  5. Oct '25Volume reached 58.3x its 50-day median on 2025-10-08; price +19.4% that day.
  6. Sep '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  7. Aug '25Volume reached 35.3x its 50-day median on 2025-08-13; price +5.0% that day.
  8. Jun '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the 2nd quartile).
  9. Jun '25Volume reached 26.9x its 50-day median on 2025-06-13; price +15.6% that day.
  10. Mar '25Fell 59% from the Jul 2024 peak to the Mar 2025 low.
  11. Mar '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  12. Mar '25Volume reached 21.4x its 50-day median on 2025-03-03; price -11.8% that day.
  13. Dec '24P/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (10.1x).
  14. Nov '24Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  15. Oct '24Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2024-10-29; price +3.0% that day.
  16. Sep '24Year-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  17. Sep '24Slipped to the 3rd quartile of Process Industries on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  18. Jul '24Regained the 2024-02 peak, 4 months after the low.
  19. Jul '24Volume reached 16.7x its 50-day median on 2024-07-02; price +10.3% that day.
  20. Jun '24Slipped to the 2nd quartile of Process Industries on ROCE (from the top quartile).
  21. Jun '24Started paying a dividend (payout 3% of profit).
  22. Jun '24Volume reached 35.2x its 50-day median on 2024-06-24; price +11.1% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

5 of 7 checks are within range, 2 near a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance-2%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): -2.1%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate33%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 33.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion2.17xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 2.17x (cash from operations ₹406 cr, net profit ₹187 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow3 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 3. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history+13 daysWithin range

Debtor days are above the median of the previous three fiscal years by 13 days (42 vs 29). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress19% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 19% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days+32 days / 2 yrsNear threshold

Days payable changed by +32 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, institutional and promoter holdings were broadly unchanged.
  • The number of shareholders fell from 9,794 to 7,633 (-22%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters74.0%74.3%+0.3 pts
FIIs0.4%0.3%0.0 pts
DIIs0.0%0.0%0.0 pts
Public and others25.6%25.4%-0.3 pts

Number of shareholders

7,633shareholders-22% since Dec '23
8k8k9k10k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 9,794
Mar '24: 9,725
Jun '24: 9,559
Sep '24: 9,930
Dec '24: 9,679
Mar '25: 9,710
Jun '25: 9,282
Sep '25: 8,683
Dec '25: 8,233
Mar '26: 7,886
Jun '26: 7,633
 8k8k9k10k Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 9,794
Mar '24: 9,725
Jun '24: 9,559
Sep '24: 9,930
Dec '24: 9,679
Mar '25: 9,710
Jun '25: 9,282
Sep '25: 8,683
Dec '25: 8,233
Mar '26: 7,886
Jun '26: 7,633

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-70.0%recovered 2024-01
1-year volatility48.2%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.883-year daily, correlation 0.31
Volume spikes18last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹148₹322₹496₹669 Jan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '26
2019-01: ₹348.25
2019-02: ₹290.45
2019-03: ₹310.60
2019-04: ₹301.30
2019-05: ₹282.20
2019-06: ₹222.15
2019-07: ₹167.15
2019-08: ₹216.60
2019-09: ₹282.60
2019-10: ₹233.10
2019-11: ₹208.65
2019-12: ₹207.30
2020-01: ₹243.40
2020-02: ₹221.55
2020-03: ₹148.40
2020-04: ₹184.35
2020-05: ₹174.00
2020-06: ₹226.30
2020-07: ₹197.20
2020-08: ₹208.50
2020-09: ₹194.40
2020-10: ₹180.20
2020-11: ₹189.25
2020-12: ₹221.30
2021-01: ₹213.00
2021-02: ₹239.10
2021-03: ₹236.35
2021-04: ₹206.35
2021-05: ₹222.75
2021-06: ₹233.30
2021-07: ₹320.50
2021-08: ₹312.10
2021-09: ₹323.25
2021-10: ₹294.40
2021-11: ₹237.15
2021-12: ₹259.50
2022-01: ₹266.05
2022-02: ₹216.55
2022-03: ₹266.30
2022-04: ₹266.25
2022-05: ₹238.75
2022-06: ₹222.90
2022-07: ₹250.70
2022-08: ₹374.75
2022-09: ₹391.85
2022-10: ₹416.95
2022-11: ₹320.55
2022-12: ₹294.80
2023-01: ₹266.75
2023-02: ₹223.75
2023-03: ₹203.90
2023-04: ₹256.05
2023-05: ₹287.25
2023-06: ₹296.25
2023-07: ₹286.85
2023-08: ₹337.65
2023-09: ₹363.05
2023-10: ₹365.35
2023-11: ₹357.15
2023-12: ₹398.20
2024-01: ₹509.05
2024-02: ₹433.15
2024-03: ₹432.20
2024-04: ₹478.05
2024-05: ₹408.10
2024-06: ₹503.45
2024-07: ₹469.95
2024-08: ₹414.95
2024-09: ₹362.25
2024-10: ₹353.90
2024-11: ₹347.90
2024-12: ₹350.65
2025-01: ₹330.40
2025-02: ₹264.85
2025-03: ₹222.85
2025-04: ₹245.38
2025-05: ₹266.92
2025-06: ₹369.30
2025-07: ₹364.90
2025-08: ₹407.45
2025-09: ₹433.20
2025-10: ₹435.70
2025-11: ₹466.55
2025-12: ₹484.30
2026-01: ₹442.70
2026-02: ₹460.40
2026-03: ₹403.95
2026-04: ₹479.90
2026-05: ₹449.10
2026-06: ₹441.75
2026-07: ₹473.40
2026-08: ₹510.00
2026-09: ₹669.45
2026-10: ₹664.90
 ₹148₹322₹496₹669 Jan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
2019-01: ₹348.25
2019-02: ₹290.45
2019-03: ₹310.60
2019-04: ₹301.30
2019-05: ₹282.20
2019-06: ₹222.15
2019-07: ₹167.15
2019-08: ₹216.60
2019-09: ₹282.60
2019-10: ₹233.10
2019-11: ₹208.65
2019-12: ₹207.30
2020-01: ₹243.40
2020-02: ₹221.55
2020-03: ₹148.40
2020-04: ₹184.35
2020-05: ₹174.00
2020-06: ₹226.30
2020-07: ₹197.20
2020-08: ₹208.50
2020-09: ₹194.40
2020-10: ₹180.20
2020-11: ₹189.25
2020-12: ₹221.30
2021-01: ₹213.00
2021-02: ₹239.10
2021-03: ₹236.35
2021-04: ₹206.35
2021-05: ₹222.75
2021-06: ₹233.30
2021-07: ₹320.50
2021-08: ₹312.10
2021-09: ₹323.25
2021-10: ₹294.40
2021-11: ₹237.15
2021-12: ₹259.50
2022-01: ₹266.05
2022-02: ₹216.55
2022-03: ₹266.30
2022-04: ₹266.25
2022-05: ₹238.75
2022-06: ₹222.90
2022-07: ₹250.70
2022-08: ₹374.75
2022-09: ₹391.85
2022-10: ₹416.95
2022-11: ₹320.55
2022-12: ₹294.80
2023-01: ₹266.75
2023-02: ₹223.75
2023-03: ₹203.90
2023-04: ₹256.05
2023-05: ₹287.25
2023-06: ₹296.25
2023-07: ₹286.85
2023-08: ₹337.65
2023-09: ₹363.05
2023-10: ₹365.35
2023-11: ₹357.15
2023-12: ₹398.20
2024-01: ₹509.05
2024-02: ₹433.15
2024-03: ₹432.20
2024-04: ₹478.05
2024-05: ₹408.10
2024-06: ₹503.45
2024-07: ₹469.95
2024-08: ₹414.95
2024-09: ₹362.25
2024-10: ₹353.90
2024-11: ₹347.90
2024-12: ₹350.65
2025-01: ₹330.40
2025-02: ₹264.85
2025-03: ₹222.85
2025-04: ₹245.38
2025-05: ₹266.92
2025-06: ₹369.30
2025-07: ₹364.90
2025-08: ₹407.45
2025-09: ₹433.20
2025-10: ₹435.70
2025-11: ₹466.55
2025-12: ₹484.30
2026-01: ₹442.70
2026-02: ₹460.40
2026-03: ₹403.95
2026-04: ₹479.90
2026-05: ₹449.10
2026-06: ₹441.75
2026-07: ₹473.40
2026-08: ₹510.00
2026-09: ₹669.45
2026-10: ₹664.90

Last 90 trading days

₹408₹530₹652₹774 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹458.35
2026-06-25: ₹455.40
2026-06-30: ₹441.75
2026-07-02: ₹427.25
2026-07-06: ₹414.10
2026-07-08: ₹408.30
2026-07-10: ₹429.80
2026-07-14: ₹437.65
2026-07-16: ₹427.30
2026-07-20: ₹428.55
2026-07-22: ₹451.95
2026-07-24: ₹508.95
2026-07-28: ₹464.45
2026-07-30: ₹461.55
2026-08-03: ₹488.15
2026-08-05: ₹487.75
2026-08-07: ₹544.55
2026-08-11: ₹519.90
2026-08-13: ₹504.85
2026-08-17: ₹509.90
2026-08-19: ₹499.15
2026-08-21: ₹503.85
2026-08-25: ₹509.65
2026-08-27: ₹511.30
2026-08-31: ₹510.00
2026-09-02: ₹498.50
2026-09-04: ₹584.00
2026-09-08: ₹644.35
2026-09-10: ₹595.30
2026-09-15: ₹638.85
2026-09-17: ₹628.50
2026-09-21: ₹627.15
2026-09-23: ₹657.90
2026-09-25: ₹677.25
2026-09-29: ₹660.50
2026-10-01: ₹659.50
2026-10-06: ₹658.25
2026-10-08: ₹651.15
2026-10-12: ₹706.10
2026-10-14: ₹774.20
2026-10-16: ₹731.75
2026-10-21: ₹677.80
2026-10-23: ₹656.15
2026-10-27: ₹674.25
2026-10-29: ₹686.05
2026-10-30: ₹664.90
 ₹408₹530₹652₹774 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹458.35
2026-06-25: ₹455.40
2026-06-30: ₹441.75
2026-07-02: ₹427.25
2026-07-06: ₹414.10
2026-07-08: ₹408.30
2026-07-10: ₹429.80
2026-07-14: ₹437.65
2026-07-16: ₹427.30
2026-07-20: ₹428.55
2026-07-22: ₹451.95
2026-07-24: ₹508.95
2026-07-28: ₹464.45
2026-07-30: ₹461.55
2026-08-03: ₹488.15
2026-08-05: ₹487.75
2026-08-07: ₹544.55
2026-08-11: ₹519.90
2026-08-13: ₹504.85
2026-08-17: ₹509.90
2026-08-19: ₹499.15
2026-08-21: ₹503.85
2026-08-25: ₹509.65
2026-08-27: ₹511.30
2026-08-31: ₹510.00
2026-09-02: ₹498.50
2026-09-04: ₹584.00
2026-09-08: ₹644.35
2026-09-10: ₹595.30
2026-09-15: ₹638.85
2026-09-17: ₹628.50
2026-09-21: ₹627.15
2026-09-23: ₹657.90
2026-09-25: ₹677.25
2026-09-29: ₹660.50
2026-10-01: ₹659.50
2026-10-06: ₹658.25
2026-10-08: ₹651.15
2026-10-12: ₹706.10
2026-10-14: ₹774.20
2026-10-16: ₹731.75
2026-10-21: ₹677.80
2026-10-23: ₹656.15
2026-10-27: ₹674.25
2026-10-29: ₹686.05
2026-10-30: ₹664.90

Drawdown from peak

0% -34% -67% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -34% -67% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-70.0% (2019-01 peak to 2020-03 low, recovered 2024-01)

-58.8% (2024-07 peak to 2025-03 low, recovered 2026-08)

-25.1% (2024-02 peak to 2024-03 low, recovered 2024-07)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-14: 8.6x the 50-day median, price +2.7% that day

2026-10-13: 38.7x the 50-day median, price +6.8% that day

2026-10-12: 12.9x the 50-day median, price +11.0% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Process Industries peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Process Industries peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Process Industries sector page Watch it move against Process Industries in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
MUNJAL AUTO INDUSTRIES (MUNJALAU)Producer Manufacturing79%debt/equity, revenue
SHALBY (SHALBY)Health Services64%promoter holding, EPS growth
PYRAMID TECHNOPLAST (PYRAMID)Producer Manufacturing60%P/E, promoter holding
RAJRATAN GLOBAL WIRE (RAJRATAN)Producer Manufacturing57%revenue growth, EPS growth
MONTE CARLO FASHIONS (MONTECARLO)Consumer Non-Durables54%market cap, promoter holding
SANGAM (INDIA) (SANGAMIND)Process Industries70%debt/equity, operating margin
NAHAR SPINNING MILLS (NAHARSPING)Process Industries69%EPS growth, market cap
UTTAM SUGAR MILLS (UTTAMSUGAR)Process Industries65%revenue, promoter holding

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+12.7%typical 12-month return vs the marketAbove the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like NRAGARWAL INDUSTRIES LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −17% to +48% vs the market, against −4% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The analogs' median sat above that base rate (gap +17.1%, 80% range +8.8% to +26.8%), but the matches cluster in only 5 distinct 12-month windows.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
AFSL · Aug 2024: −58.7% vs market
ABCIND · Jun 2025: −47.8% vs market
RGL · Feb 2020: −42.9% vs market
RBS · Jul 2025: −35.9% vs market
RITCO · Jan 2025: −35.9% vs market
EUROBOND · Sep 2025: −30.1% vs market
SENCO · Aug 2024: −26.5% vs market
PARAGMILK · Jul 2023: −23.4% vs market
RANEHOLDIN · Jun 2023: −21.5% vs market
SPORTKING · Aug 2024: −20.6% vs market
SANDHAR · Nov 2023: −19.3% vs market
RML · Jun 2023: −19.0% vs market
JAYSREETEA · Jun 2021: −16.8% vs market
MANORG · Sep 2025: −16.0% vs market
GREENPLY · Sep 2024: −14.3% vs market
RICOAUTO · Jun 2023: −10.9% vs market
KANPRPLA · Jun 2025: −6.9% vs market
MAGADSUGAR · Jun 2021: −5.6% vs market
DBL · Jun 2024: −4.7% vs market
GPTINFRA · Feb 2024: +3.3% vs market
ALLCARGO · Mar 2022: +4.5% vs market
JKTYRE · Sep 2023: +6.7% vs market
NECLIFE · Apr 2020: +10.0% vs market
HARRMALAYA · Oct 2020: +11.6% vs market
RPSGVENT · May 2021: +11.7% vs market
HITECH · Jun 2021: +13.6% vs market
TBZ · Aug 2023: +17.2% vs market
BIL · Sep 2025: +17.6% vs market
COMSYN · Jun 2025: +19.9% vs market
BLKASHYAP · May 2023: +22.1% vs market
MANOMAY · Oct 2025: +25.3% vs market
KAPSTON · Sep 2024: +27.5% vs market
LUMAXIND · Jul 2025: +28.8% vs market
PDSL · Mar 2020: +30.7% vs market
SALZERELEC · Feb 2024: +30.8% vs market
ELECTCAST · Oct 2023: +39.3% vs market
NAHARSPING · Jun 2021: +41.0% vs market
UNIVCABLES · Nov 2022: +49.9% vs market
GOODLUCK · Nov 2022: +56.8% vs market
PENIND · Nov 2022: +65.0% vs market
COSMOFIRST · Mar 2020: +65.9% vs market
JSL · Jan 2020: +69.2% vs market
MWL · Oct 2025: +73.4% vs market
CEMPRO · Nov 2022: +98.5% vs market
JINDALSAW · Mar 2023: +99.7% vs market
UNITEDPOLY · May 2025: +99.9% vs market
NITINSPIN · Apr 2021: +127.0% vs market
HPL · Jun 2023: +127.9% vs market
VISHNU · Aug 2021: +189.0% vs market
GOKEX · Apr 2021: +255.7% vs market
Similar setups +12.7%All companies −4.4%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 4 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+12.7%
All companies' median
−4.4%
Beat the market
62% vs 45%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 29 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
COSMOFIRST
Process Industries		 Mar 2020 7x8% +8%−38% +66%
BIL
Consumer Non-Durables		 Sep 2025 41x9% +36%−11% +18%
NITINSPIN
Process Industries		 Apr 2021 21x6% +175%−4% +127%
UNITEDPOLY
Process Industries		 May 2025 28x— +90%−13% +100%
BLKASHYAP
Industrial Services		 May 2023 20x10% +72%−10% +22%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
PENIND
Non-Energy Minerals		 Nov 2022 21x10% +131%−9% +65%
GOODLUCK
Non-Energy Minerals		 Nov 2022 17x16% +80%−10% +57%
RBS
Process Industries		 Jul 2025 20x8% +47%−11% −36%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: interest cover, drawdown from 12-month high and P/E. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 5 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to NRAGARWAL INDUSTRIES LTD. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (94 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1018.2x₹2340 cr7.6%8.0%1.0x
2026-0918.3x₹2340 cr7.6%8.0%1.0x
2026-0819.9x₹2145 cr5.4%8.0%1.0x
2026-0718.4x₹2145 cr5.4%8.0%1.0x
2026-0617.2x₹2145 cr5.4%8.0%1.0x
2026-0533.7x₹2006 cr3.0%6.0%0.8x
2026-0436.0x₹2006 cr3.0%6.0%0.8x
2026-0330.3x₹2006 cr3.0%6.0%0.8x
2026-0237.3x₹1861 cr2.8%6.0%0.8x
2026-0135.9x₹1861 cr2.8%6.0%0.8x
2025-1239.3x₹1861 cr2.8%6.0%0.8x
2025-1125.8x₹1764 cr4.0%6.0%0.8x
2025-1024.1x₹1764 cr4.0%6.0%0.8x
2025-0923.9x₹1764 cr4.0%6.0%0.8x
2025-0839.3x₹1659 cr2.2%6.0%0.8x
2025-0735.2x₹1659 cr2.2%6.0%0.8x
2025-0635.6x₹1659 cr2.2%6.0%0.8x
2025-0511.3x₹1440 cr5.3%14.0%0.8x
2025-0410.4x₹1440 cr5.3%14.0%0.8x
2025-039.5x₹1440 cr5.3%14.0%0.8x
2025-027.7x₹1358 cr7.6%14.0%0.8x
2025-019.6x₹1358 cr7.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-1210.1x₹1358 cr7.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-116.7x₹1272 cr11.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-106.8x₹1272 cr11.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-097.0x₹1272 cr11.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-085.6x₹1294 cr16.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-076.4x₹1294 cr16.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-066.8x₹1294 cr16.6%14.0%0.8x
2024-057.0x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2024-048.2x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2024-037.4x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2024-027.4x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2024-018.7x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-126.8x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-116.1x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-106.3x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-096.2x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-085.8x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-074.9x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-065.1x₹1766 cr15.6%22.0%0.3x
2023-058.0x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2023-047.1x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2023-035.7x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2023-026.2x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2023-017.4x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-128.2x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-118.9x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-1011.6x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-0910.9x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-0810.5x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-077.0x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-066.2x₹1617 cr11.4%17.0%0.3x
2022-057.1x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2022-047.9x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2022-037.9x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2022-026.4x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2022-017.9x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-127.7x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-117.1x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-108.8x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-099.6x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-089.3x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-079.5x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-066.9x₹1146 cr12.0%17.0%0.4x
2021-053.2x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2021-043.0x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2021-033.4x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2021-023.5x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2021-013.1x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-123.2x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-112.8x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-102.6x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-092.8x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-083.0x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-072.9x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-063.3x₹1405 cr27.9%32.0%0.5x
2020-053.1x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2020-043.3x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2020-032.7x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2020-024.0x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2020-014.4x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-123.7x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-113.8x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-104.2x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-095.1x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-083.9x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-073.0x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-064.0x₹1318 cr30.4%30.0%1.0x
2019-055.3x₹1190 cr41.1%29.0%1.3x
2019-045.7x₹1190 cr41.1%29.0%1.3x
2019-035.9x₹1190 cr41.1%29.0%1.3x
2019-025.5x₹1190 cr41.1%29.0%1.3x
2019-016.6x₹1190 cr41.1%29.0%1.3x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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