HAPPY FORGINGS LIMITED (HAPPYFORGE): Financials & Fundamentals History

Share price

Closing priceAdjusted for splits and bonus issues.

3M1YAll

₹1,802 latest close · +20.2% over the last 90 sessions

₹1,802 month-end · +73.8% over 12 months

₹1,802 month-end · +75.1% since Dec '23

52-week range ₹976.00 to ₹2470.00 · 1-year volatility 39.2%

Was the rally earned?

+74%share price, 1 yearEarnings and multiple

Both mattered.

Per-share earnings added 26 points and the multiple added 48 points (P/E 36.3x to 51.9x).
The share count barely moved.

Net profit growth+26 ptsNet profit rose about 21%, which lifts the price.

P/E change+48 ptsThe P/E rose from 36.3x to 51.9x, which lifts the price.

Share count change0 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.

What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with BHARAT FORGE

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-40.8%recovered 2026-02

1-year volatility39.2%annualised

Beta vs sector index0.743-year daily, correlation 0.48

Volume spikes2last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Drawdown from peak

Largest drawdowns

-40.8% (2024-07 peak to 2025-04 low, recovered 2026-02)

-30.0% (2026-09 peak to 2026-11 low, not yet recovered)

-20.9% (2023-12 peak to 2024-03 low, recovered 2024-05)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-11-09: 7.8x the 50-day median, price -3.3% that day

2026-08-05: 5.2x the 50-day median, price +6.7% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

51.9xP/E todayNear its historic high

Against its own history94th percentile

CheapestMedian 40.8xDearest

Usual range 31.9x to 51.0x since 2023-12.

Against Producer Manufacturing51.9x vs 29.6x

This company

51.9x

Sector median

29.6x

76% above the Producer Manufacturing median.

P/EP/BP/S

P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median

How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dotted line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Producer Manufacturing is valued

Where does it rank among Producer Manufacturing peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Producer Manufacturing peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

Where it ranks today

ROCE61stflat vs a year ago
Op. margin98thflat vs a year ago
Revenue growth53rd▲ 17 pts vs a year ago
EPS growth62nd▲ 4 pts vs a year ago
Debt/equity ↓60th▼ 4 pts vs a year ago
Cash cycle ↓25th▲ 5 pts vs a year ago
P/E ↓22nd▼ 24 pts vs a year ago
12M momentum93rd▲ 29 pts vs a year ago

Rank history

ROCE

Op. margin

Revenue growth

EPS growth

Debt/equity ↓

Cash cycle ↓

P/E ↓

12M momentum

Dec '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26Nov '26

Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Producer Manufacturing sector page Watch it move against Producer Manufacturing in the Observatory

What is the price implying?

~31%annual earnings growth implied by the priceAbove delivered growth

At normalised P/E (five-year average earnings) of 73.0x, a holder earning 12%/yr needs earnings to grow about 30.7%/yr for 10 years, then trade at 15x.

Delivered20.8%/yrEPS, last 6 fiscal years · 3-yr avg to 3-yr avg

Gap+9.9 ptsimplied minus delivered

Rank329thmost demanding of 856

Over time

Implied growth by month (solid) and delivered growth (dashed).

Change the assumptions

Exit P/E / return	11%	12%	13%
12x	32.4%	33.5%	34.7%
15x	29.5%	30.7%	31.8%
20x	25.9%	27.1%	28.2%

Drag a slider to test other assumptions

Required return 12.0% Years 10 Exit P/E 15x Implied: 30.7%/yr

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect. How this is calculated and the market-wide lists.

What prices imply across Producer Manufacturing The market-wide Expectations lists

Key figures

Share Priceclose 9 Nov: ₹1802.00
P/E: 51.9x
ROCE: 18.0%
Market Cap: ₹17013 cr
Revenue (TTM): ₹1641 cr
P/S: 10.4x
P/B: 8.0x
ROE: 15.4%
Operating Margin: 31.0%
Debt / Equity: 0.2x
Promoter Holding: 78.5%
12M Momentum: 73.8%

52-week range

₹976.00₹2470.00

55% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility

39.2%

Beta vs sector

1-year daily

1.00

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover

operating profit ÷ interest

40.5x

Cash from profit, 3Y

operating cash flow ÷ net profit

1.14x

Share count, 1Y

unchanged

Are profits backed by cash?

6 of 7checks within range1 near a threshold

Other income reliance7%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 7.1%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate26%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 25.5%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion1.14xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 1.14x (cash from operations ₹926 cr, net profit ₹812 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-10 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 10 days (93 vs 103). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress21% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 21% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days0 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by 0 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

Tap a check to see how it is measured

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

Over 2 years, DIIs added 9.7 pts.
The number of shareholders fell from 1.3 lakh to 64,341 (-52%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change

Promoters78.6%78.5%-0.1 pts

FIIs2.1%1.9%-0.2 pts

DIIs5.8%15.5%+9.7 pts

Public and others13.5%4.1%-9.4 pts

Number of shareholders

64,341shareholders-52% since Dec '23

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

What happened next to similar setups

−18.3%typical 12-month return vs the marketBelow the base rate

We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like HAPPY FORGINGS LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −29% to +12% vs the market, against −3% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
The analogs' median sat below that base rate (gap −15.2%, 80% range −22.1% to −1.0%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months

Similar setups' median

−18.3%

All companies' median

−3.1%

Beat the market

40% vs 47%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 39 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

Company	When	P/E	ROCE	12M mom.	Drawdown	Next 12 months
NEWGEN Technology Services	Jan 2024	67x	24%	+298%	−6%	+14%
POLYMED Health Technology	Jan 2025	77x	24%	+60%	−26%	−39%
MIDHANI Non-Energy Minerals	Jul 2020	24x	20%	+74%	−21%	−39%
KPITTECH Technology Services	Jun 2022	52x	24%	+99%	−31%	+75%
COCHINSHIP Producer Manufacturing	Oct 2025	56x	20%	+20%	−25%	−34%

Show the other 3 matches

Company	When	P/E	ROCE	12M mom.	Drawdown	Next 12 months
JYOTHYLAB Consumer Non-Durables	Nov 2023	56x	18%	+114%	−5%	−25%
EMAMILTD Consumer Non-Durables	Apr 2021	74x	18%	+153%	−10%	−19%
THYROCARE Health Services	Sep 2025	58x	25%	+43%	−17%	+37%

How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: P/E, size and ROCE. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to HAPPY FORGINGS LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-11-09. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

Feature	Weight	Non-financial	Financial
P/E	1	yes	yes
P/S	1	yes	—
P/B	1	—	yes
ROCE	1	yes	—
operating margin	1	yes	—
ROE	1	—	yes
debt/equity	0.75	yes	—
interest cover	0.5	yes	—
revenue growth	0.75	yes	yes
12-month momentum	1	yes	yes
drawdown from 12-month high	0.75	yes	yes
size	0.75	yes	yes
volatility	0.5	yes	yes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
Pools: non-financial: 98,395 company-months from 2019 companies; financial: 5,659 company-months from 108 companies. 2349 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

PARK MEDI WORLDPARKHOSPS

Health Services

79%similar

promoter holdingrevenue

AETHER INDUSTRIESAETHER

Process Industries

65%similar

operating marginmarket cap

SRI LOTUS DEV AND REALTYLOTUSDEV

Finance

63%similar

promoter holdingoperating margin

SHREEJI SHIPPING GLOBAL LIMITESHREEJISPG

Transportation

59%similar

operating marginpromoter holding

FINE ORGANIC INDUSTRIESFINEORG

Process Industries

56%similar

market cappromoter holding

INOX INDIAINOXINDIA

Producer Manufacturing

59%similar

revenuemarket cap

INGERSOLL-RAND (INDIA)INGERRAND

Producer Manufacturing

47%similar

promoter holdingrevenue

COCHIN SHIPYARDCOCHINSHIP

Producer Manufacturing

46%similar

P/Evolatility

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What changed?

20 events since Apr '24

2026
NovPriceFell 30% from the Sep 2026 peak to the Nov 2026 low.
NovPriceVolume reached 7.8x its 50-day median on 2026-11-09; price -3.3% that day.
AugPriceVolume reached 5.2x its 50-day median on 2026-08-05; price +6.7% that day.
JunValuationP/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (48.1x).
JunPriceVolume reached 10.2x its 50-day median on 2026-06-19; price +0.8% that day.
FebPriceRegained the 2024-07 peak, 10 months after the low.
FebValuationP/E crossed above the 90th percentile of its own history to date (46.3x).
FebPriceVolume reached 13.1x its 50-day median on 2026-02-12; price +10.0% that day.

Show 12 earlier events

2025
OctPriceVolume reached 12.5x its 50-day median on 2025-10-20; price +0.6% that day.
SepPriceVolume reached 7.2x its 50-day median on 2025-09-17; price +2.6% that day.
JunPeer rankMoved into the 2nd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
AprPriceFell 41% from the Jul 2024 peak to the Apr 2025 low.
AprPriceVolume reached 6.8x its 50-day median on 2025-04-22; price +1.2% that day.
JanPriceVolume reached 10.5x its 50-day median on 2025-01-21; price +1.0% that day.
2024
DecSharesShare count is up 5.6% over 12 months.
DecPriceVolume reached 9.2x its 50-day median on 2024-12-17; price -1.9% that day.
SepPriceVolume reached 8.6x its 50-day median on 2024-09-23; price -1.0% that day.
JulPeer rankSlipped to the 2nd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on ROCE (from the top quartile).
JunInstitutionsFII + DII holding rose 10.2 pts over 1 quarter to 18.0%.
AprPriceVolume reached 7.4x its 50-day median on 2024-04-16; price +3.9% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Monthly history36 months · 2023-12 to 2026-11

Month	P/E	Revenue (TTM)	ROE	ROCE	Debt / Equity
2026-11	51.9x	₹1641 cr	15.4%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-10	50.4x	₹1641 cr	15.4%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-09	59.6x	₹1641 cr	15.4%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-08	75.4x	₹1546 cr	14.2%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-07	51.7x	₹1546 cr	14.2%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-06	48.1x	₹1546 cr	14.2%	18.0%	0.2x
2026-05	45.8x	₹1474 cr	15.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2026-04	44.5x	₹1474 cr	15.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2026-03	38.1x	₹1474 cr	15.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2026-02	46.3x	₹1437 cr	14.7%	19.0%	0.1x
2026-01	37.0x	₹1437 cr	14.7%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-12	39.9x	₹1437 cr	14.7%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-11	36.3x	₹1421 cr	14.6%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-10	35.7x	₹1421 cr	14.6%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-09	32.1x	₹1421 cr	14.6%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-08	31.8x	₹1408 cr	14.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-07	33.3x	₹1408 cr	14.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-06	33.9x	₹1408 cr	14.5%	19.0%	0.1x
2025-05	34.5x	₹1399 cr	16.5%	23.0%	0.1x
2025-04	27.3x	₹1399 cr	16.5%	23.0%	0.1x
2025-03	27.9x	₹1399 cr	16.5%	23.0%	0.1x
2025-02	30.7x	₹1387 cr	16.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2025-01	38.6x	₹1387 cr	16.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-12	36.3x	₹1387 cr	16.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-11	42.0x	₹1369 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-10	41.3x	₹1369 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-09	45.5x	₹1369 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-08	45.0x	₹1358 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-07	47.6x	₹1358 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-06	46.1x	₹1358 cr	15.1%	23.0%	0.1x
2024-05	47.9x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x
2024-04	40.4x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x
2024-03	38.2x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x
2024-02	39.8x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x
2024-01	42.4x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x
2023-12	44.1x	₹1197 cr	21.2%	26.0%	0.2x

Methodology and data notes