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WALCHANDNAGAR INDUSTRIES LTD (WALCHANNAG)

Producer Manufacturing

Earnings #17
Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.22 / 100
Profitability 20Growth 15Balance sheet 32
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.66 / 100
Price 15Earnings 96FII/DII 87
Divergence: business ahead of price

Passes these screens: Business ahead of price

Share Price
₹180.11
ROCE
4.0%
Market Cap
₹1226 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹317 cr
P/S
3.9x
P/B
3.4x
ROE
-0.9%
Operating Margin
8.1%
Debt / Equity
0.6x
Promoter Holding
31.6%
12M Momentum
1.5%

52-week range

₹131.15₹315.80
27% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
58.6%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
1.49

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
0.9x
Share count, 1Y
+7.7%

What is the price implying?

Trailing earnings per share are negative, so a P/E-based figure does not exist. See the loss-makers list on the Expectations Gap page for a revenue-based version.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Producer Manufacturing The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Volume reached 15.8x its 50-day median on 2026-10-07; price +9.7% that day.
  2. Sep '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  3. Sep '26Share count is up 7.7% over 12 months.
  4. Jun '26Slipped to the bottom quartile of Producer Manufacturing on operating margin (from the top quartile).
  5. Apr '26Volume reached 10.0x its 50-day median on 2026-04-22; price +12.6% that day.
  6. Mar '26Fell 69% from the Jul 2024 peak to the Mar 2026 low.
  7. Mar '26Moved into the top quartile of Producer Manufacturing on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  8. Jan '26Volume reached 52.8x its 50-day median on 2026-01-30; price +9.2% that day.
Show 22 earlier events
  1. Dec '25Volume reached 176.5x its 50-day median on 2025-12-18; price +13.2% that day.
  2. Sep '25Volume reached 5.4x its 50-day median on 2025-09-11; price -1.4% that day.
  3. Aug '25Share count is up 18.2% over 12 months.
  4. May '25Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2025-05-30; price +8.3% that day.
  5. Dec '24Volume reached 8.6x its 50-day median on 2024-12-17; price +6.0% that day.
  6. Jul '24Regained the 2024-02 peak, 2 months after the low.
  7. Jul '24Share count is up 22.2% over 12 months.
  8. Jul '24Volume reached 11.6x its 50-day median on 2024-07-10; price +4.7% that day.
  9. Jun '24Promoter holding fell 3.3 pts to 31.6%.
  10. Jun '24EPS (TTM) turned negative.
  11. Jun '24Debt / equity fell below 1.0x (0.67x).
  12. May '24Fell 29% from the Feb 2024 peak to the May 2024 low.
  13. Feb '24Volume reached 7.0x its 50-day median on 2024-02-08; price +1.9% that day.
  14. Jan '24Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 1.13x.
  15. Oct '23Volume reached 25.1x its 50-day median on 2023-10-16; price +5.0% that day.
  16. Sep '23Volume reached 6.9x its 50-day median on 2023-09-01; price +5.0% that day.
  17. Aug '23Regained the 2019-04 peak, 41 months after the low.
  18. Jun '23EPS (TTM) turned positive.
  19. Jun '23Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 1.13x.
  20. Jun '23Share count is up 12.5% over 12 months.
  21. Jun '23Volume reached 18.8x its 50-day median on 2023-06-02; price +9.8% that day.
  22. Jan '23Volume reached 5.3x its 50-day median on 2023-01-05; price +4.8% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

3 of 4 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Tax rate—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Cash conversion—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Free cash flow3 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 3. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-71 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 71 days (114 vs 185). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress6% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 6% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days+19 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by +19 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, promoters trimmed 3.3 pts; FIIs added 2.0 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 55,725 to 96,793 (+74%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters34.8%31.6%-3.3 pts
FIIs0.3%2.4%+2.0 pts
DIIs0.2%0.5%+0.3 pts
Public and others64.6%65.5%+0.9 pts

Number of shareholders

96,793shareholders+74% since Dec '23
56k69k83k97k Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 55,725
Mar '24: 57,593
Jun '24: 59,811
Sep '24: 73,686
Dec '24: 77,386
Mar '25: 79,698
Jun '25: 80,371
Sep '25: 78,880
Dec '25: 83,130
Mar '26: 87,168
Jun '26: 96,793
56k69k83k97k Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 55,725
Mar '24: 57,593
Jun '24: 59,811
Sep '24: 73,686
Dec '24: 77,386
Mar '25: 79,698
Jun '25: 80,371
Sep '25: 78,880
Dec '25: 83,130
Mar '26: 87,168
Jun '26: 96,793

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-77.2%recovered 2023-08
1-year volatility58.6%annualised
Beta vs sector index1.443-year daily, correlation 0.51
Volume spikes1last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹26₹157₹288₹419 Jan '19Aug '20Mar '22Oct '23May '25Oct '26
2019-01: ₹86.80
2019-02: ₹78.35
2019-03: ₹89.25
2019-04: ₹91.20
2019-05: ₹95.40
2019-06: ₹85.90
2019-07: ₹65.85
2019-08: ₹55.25
2019-09: ₹62.95
2019-10: ₹66.10
2019-11: ₹63.95
2019-12: ₹58.30
2020-01: ₹67.50
2020-02: ₹49.90
2020-03: ₹25.55
2020-04: ₹38.15
2020-05: ₹37.40
2020-06: ₹50.90
2020-07: ₹51.10
2020-08: ₹58.55
2020-09: ₹49.35
2020-10: ₹46.45
2020-11: ₹58.65
2020-12: ₹70.95
2021-01: ₹61.30
2021-02: ₹63.95
2021-03: ₹62.75
2021-04: ₹62.70
2021-05: ₹75.00
2021-06: ₹80.35
2021-07: ₹68.70
2021-08: ₹67.45
2021-09: ₹58.40
2021-10: ₹52.35
2021-11: ₹43.50
2021-12: ₹53.50
2022-01: ₹57.40
2022-02: ₹50.50
2022-03: ₹50.30
2022-04: ₹61.40
2022-05: ₹50.90
2022-06: ₹52.05
2022-07: ₹53.60
2022-08: ₹68.30
2022-09: ₹56.65
2022-10: ₹58.50
2022-11: ₹64.65
2022-12: ₹67.85
2023-01: ₹68.95
2023-02: ₹57.70
2023-03: ₹52.70
2023-04: ₹66.35
2023-05: ₹72.25
2023-06: ₹83.65
2023-07: ₹102.80
2023-08: ₹118.90
2023-09: ₹116.20
2023-10: ₹165.40
2023-11: ₹179.65
2023-12: ₹188.55
2024-01: ₹197.55
2024-02: ₹246.45
2024-03: ₹202.30
2024-04: ₹229.75
2024-05: ₹208.55
2024-06: ₹235.32
2024-07: ₹418.89
2024-08: ₹339.60
2024-09: ₹306.80
2024-10: ₹279.50
2024-11: ₹251.15
2024-12: ₹288.50
2025-01: ₹241.85
2025-02: ₹152.10
2025-03: ₹154.94
2025-04: ₹180.82
2025-05: ₹235.32
2025-06: ₹225.62
2025-07: ₹198.99
2025-08: ₹174.27
2025-09: ₹188.08
2025-10: ₹177.43
2025-11: ₹173.52
2025-12: ₹189.01
2026-01: ₹187.90
2026-02: ₹172.97
2026-03: ₹131.65
2026-04: ₹235.02
2026-05: ₹253.36
2026-06: ₹272.30
2026-07: ₹232.00
2026-08: ₹214.90
2026-09: ₹200.24
2026-10: ₹180.11
₹26₹157₹288₹419 Jan '19Aug '21Mar '24Oct '26
2019-01: ₹86.80
2019-02: ₹78.35
2019-03: ₹89.25
2019-04: ₹91.20
2019-05: ₹95.40
2019-06: ₹85.90
2019-07: ₹65.85
2019-08: ₹55.25
2019-09: ₹62.95
2019-10: ₹66.10
2019-11: ₹63.95
2019-12: ₹58.30
2020-01: ₹67.50
2020-02: ₹49.90
2020-03: ₹25.55
2020-04: ₹38.15
2020-05: ₹37.40
2020-06: ₹50.90
2020-07: ₹51.10
2020-08: ₹58.55
2020-09: ₹49.35
2020-10: ₹46.45
2020-11: ₹58.65
2020-12: ₹70.95
2021-01: ₹61.30
2021-02: ₹63.95
2021-03: ₹62.75
2021-04: ₹62.70
2021-05: ₹75.00
2021-06: ₹80.35
2021-07: ₹68.70
2021-08: ₹67.45
2021-09: ₹58.40
2021-10: ₹52.35
2021-11: ₹43.50
2021-12: ₹53.50
2022-01: ₹57.40
2022-02: ₹50.50
2022-03: ₹50.30
2022-04: ₹61.40
2022-05: ₹50.90
2022-06: ₹52.05
2022-07: ₹53.60
2022-08: ₹68.30
2022-09: ₹56.65
2022-10: ₹58.50
2022-11: ₹64.65
2022-12: ₹67.85
2023-01: ₹68.95
2023-02: ₹57.70
2023-03: ₹52.70
2023-04: ₹66.35
2023-05: ₹72.25
2023-06: ₹83.65
2023-07: ₹102.80
2023-08: ₹118.90
2023-09: ₹116.20
2023-10: ₹165.40
2023-11: ₹179.65
2023-12: ₹188.55
2024-01: ₹197.55
2024-02: ₹246.45
2024-03: ₹202.30
2024-04: ₹229.75
2024-05: ₹208.55
2024-06: ₹235.32
2024-07: ₹418.89
2024-08: ₹339.60
2024-09: ₹306.80
2024-10: ₹279.50
2024-11: ₹251.15
2024-12: ₹288.50
2025-01: ₹241.85
2025-02: ₹152.10
2025-03: ₹154.94
2025-04: ₹180.82
2025-05: ₹235.32
2025-06: ₹225.62
2025-07: ₹198.99
2025-08: ₹174.27
2025-09: ₹188.08
2025-10: ₹177.43
2025-11: ₹173.52
2025-12: ₹189.01
2026-01: ₹187.90
2026-02: ₹172.97
2026-03: ₹131.65
2026-04: ₹235.02
2026-05: ₹253.36
2026-06: ₹272.30
2026-07: ₹232.00
2026-08: ₹214.90
2026-09: ₹200.24
2026-10: ₹180.11

Last 90 trading days

₹180₹218₹256₹294 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹294.00
2026-06-25: ₹273.75
2026-06-30: ₹272.30
2026-07-02: ₹246.75
2026-07-06: ₹236.20
2026-07-08: ₹231.20
2026-07-10: ₹261.00
2026-07-14: ₹249.50
2026-07-16: ₹249.85
2026-07-20: ₹250.35
2026-07-22: ₹246.50
2026-07-24: ₹237.10
2026-07-28: ₹226.15
2026-07-30: ₹230.80
2026-08-03: ₹229.33
2026-08-05: ₹233.37
2026-08-07: ₹230.74
2026-08-11: ₹232.80
2026-08-13: ₹225.56
2026-08-17: ₹223.91
2026-08-19: ₹221.86
2026-08-21: ₹227.09
2026-08-25: ₹220.02
2026-08-27: ₹222.26
2026-08-31: ₹214.90
2026-09-02: ₹206.09
2026-09-04: ₹208.61
2026-09-08: ₹219.10
2026-09-10: ₹208.92
2026-09-15: ₹200.03
2026-09-17: ₹199.84
2026-09-21: ₹201.18
2026-09-23: ₹212.63
2026-09-25: ₹210.99
2026-09-29: ₹203.24
2026-10-01: ₹196.08
2026-10-06: ₹204.17
2026-10-08: ₹208.01
2026-10-12: ₹209.18
2026-10-14: ₹213.44
2026-10-16: ₹213.45
2026-10-21: ₹205.34
2026-10-23: ₹187.47
2026-10-27: ₹186.55
2026-10-29: ₹190.24
2026-10-30: ₹180.11
₹180₹218₹256₹294 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹294.00
2026-06-25: ₹273.75
2026-06-30: ₹272.30
2026-07-02: ₹246.75
2026-07-06: ₹236.20
2026-07-08: ₹231.20
2026-07-10: ₹261.00
2026-07-14: ₹249.50
2026-07-16: ₹249.85
2026-07-20: ₹250.35
2026-07-22: ₹246.50
2026-07-24: ₹237.10
2026-07-28: ₹226.15
2026-07-30: ₹230.80
2026-08-03: ₹229.33
2026-08-05: ₹233.37
2026-08-07: ₹230.74
2026-08-11: ₹232.80
2026-08-13: ₹225.56
2026-08-17: ₹223.91
2026-08-19: ₹221.86
2026-08-21: ₹227.09
2026-08-25: ₹220.02
2026-08-27: ₹222.26
2026-08-31: ₹214.90
2026-09-02: ₹206.09
2026-09-04: ₹208.61
2026-09-08: ₹219.10
2026-09-10: ₹208.92
2026-09-15: ₹200.03
2026-09-17: ₹199.84
2026-09-21: ₹201.18
2026-09-23: ₹212.63
2026-09-25: ₹210.99
2026-09-29: ₹203.24
2026-10-01: ₹196.08
2026-10-06: ₹204.17
2026-10-08: ₹208.01
2026-10-12: ₹209.18
2026-10-14: ₹213.44
2026-10-16: ₹213.45
2026-10-21: ₹205.34
2026-10-23: ₹187.47
2026-10-27: ₹186.55
2026-10-29: ₹190.24
2026-10-30: ₹180.11

Drawdown from peak

0% -38% -76% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26 0% -38% -76% Jan '19Dec '22Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-77.2% (2019-04 peak to 2020-03 low, recovered 2023-08)

-68.6% (2024-07 peak to 2026-03 low, not yet recovered)

-29.4% (2024-02 peak to 2024-05 low, recovered 2024-07)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-07: 15.8x the 50-day median, price +9.7% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Producer Manufacturing peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Producer Manufacturing peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Producer Manufacturing sector page Watch it move against Producer Manufacturing in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
XPRO INDIA (XPROINDIA)Process Industries71%ROCE, operating margin
ZIM LABORATORIES (ZIMLAB)Health Technology71%revenue growth, promoter holding
NELCO (NELCO)Electronic Technology68%revenue, revenue growth
ONIDA ELECTRONICS (ONIDA)Consumer Durables62%revenue growth, market cap
SULA VINEYARDS (SULA)Process Industries62%debt/equity, market cap
GRP (GRPLTD)Producer Manufacturing53%market cap, promoter holding
NITCO (NITCO)Producer Manufacturing47%promoter holding, revenue
ASIAN GRANITO INDIA (ASIANTILES)Producer Manufacturing39%ROCE, market cap

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

−13.8%typical 12-month return vs the marketBelow the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like WALCHANDNAGAR INDUSTRIES LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −29% to +37% vs the market, against +1% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The analogs' median sat below that base rate (gap −14.9%, 80% range −19.6% to −0.9%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
KAMOPAINTS · May 2024: −66.3% vs market
PANACEABIO · Jun 2021: −65.5% vs market
IBULLSLTD · Mar 2021: −62.3% vs market
BRNL · Jan 2020: −60.7% vs market
RAJTV · Jan 2025: −58.9% vs market
SWSOLAR · Aug 2024: −58.1% vs market
GOLDTECH · Apr 2024: −51.9% vs market
VIPCLOTHNG · May 2023: −49.1% vs market
VISHWARAJ · May 2021: −42.7% vs market
RHIM · Jun 2023: −32.6% vs market
PURVA · Mar 2025: −32.2% vs market
BANKA · Jul 2024: −30.6% vs market
SINTERCOM · Jul 2023: −29.4% vs market
ENERGYDEV · Jan 2022: −26.6% vs market
SEPC · Apr 2024: −26.1% vs market
JHS · Nov 2020: −22.0% vs market
JAICORPLTD · Feb 2020: −21.3% vs market
OMAXE · Dec 2022: −19.9% vs market
S&SPOWER · Jul 2025: −18.6% vs market
SCHNEIDER · Nov 2020: −18.5% vs market
EMBDL · Jul 2024: −17.6% vs market
BYKE · Jul 2022: −16.9% vs market
NILAINFRA · Mar 2024: −16.0% vs market
SNOWMAN · Aug 2020: −14.1% vs market
5PAISA · May 2021: −14.1% vs market
PROZONER · Mar 2023: −13.5% vs market
CINELINE · Nov 2022: −9.2% vs market
BOMDYEING · Jun 2022: −5.4% vs market
INOXWIND · Aug 2021: −2.2% vs market
INDOWIND · May 2024: −1.5% vs market
HCG · May 2020: +4.5% vs market
SHALPAINTS · Jun 2020: +9.2% vs market
SWANCORP · Jun 2022: +17.6% vs market
NOIDATOLL · Jul 2020: +18.3% vs market
OPTIEMUS · Aug 2022: +27.0% vs market
ORIENTHOT · Jan 2023: +31.2% vs market
SWELECTES · Feb 2021: +34.0% vs market
ROSSELLIND · Apr 2021: +37.4% vs market
BORORENEW · Oct 2024: +40.4% vs market
TARC · Jun 2022: +47.5% vs market
PRAENG · Jan 2021: +49.9% vs market
REPRO · Jul 2022: +50.8% vs market
LEMONTREE · Apr 2021: +51.8% vs market
DWARKESH · Sep 2020: +54.6% vs market
INOXGREEN · Nov 2023: +67.8% vs market
SUMIT · Sep 2022: +91.5% vs market
RESPONIND · Sep 2022: +108.7% vs market
PCJEWELLER · Apr 2024: +130.5% vs market
PVP · Feb 2023: +194.1% vs market
GANESHHOU · Apr 2021: +254.0% vs market
Similar setups −13.8%All companies +1.1%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 4 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−13.8%
All companies' median
+1.1%
Beat the market
40% vs 51%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 38 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
PANACEABIO
Health Technology
Jun 2021 —5% +147%−15% −66%
SNOWMAN
Commercial Services
Aug 2020 —2% +13%−30% −14%
ORIENTHOT
Consumer Services
Jan 2023 —1% +15%−22% +31%
PROZONER
Finance
Mar 2023 —3% +1%−42% −14%
NILAINFRA
Industrial Services
Mar 2024 —6% +122%−27% −16%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
INDOWIND
Utilities
May 2024 —3% +95%−36% −2%
SWSOLAR
Industrial Services
Aug 2024 —4% +78%−18% −58%
KAMOPAINTS
Process Industries
May 2024 —-7% +56%−29% −66%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: interest cover, 12-month momentum and ROCE. Not used (unavailable for this company): P/E. This company is loss-making, so it was only compared with loss-making companies. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to WALCHANDNAGAR INDUSTRIES LTD. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (94 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-10—₹317 cr-0.9%4.0%0.6x
2026-09—₹317 cr-0.9%4.0%0.6x
2026-08—₹275 cr-4.1%4.0%0.6x
2026-07—₹275 cr-4.1%4.0%0.6x
2026-06—₹275 cr-4.1%4.0%0.6x
2026-05—₹235 cr-19.8%-8.0%0.5x
2026-04—₹235 cr-19.8%-8.0%0.5x
2026-03—₹235 cr-19.8%-8.0%0.5x
2026-02—₹213 cr-25.7%-8.0%0.5x
2026-01—₹213 cr-25.7%-8.0%0.5x
2025-12—₹213 cr-25.7%-8.0%0.5x
2025-11—₹229 cr-25.4%-8.0%0.5x
2025-10—₹229 cr-25.4%-8.0%0.5x
2025-09—₹229 cr-25.4%-8.0%0.5x
2025-08—₹259 cr-23.1%-8.0%0.5x
2025-07—₹259 cr-23.1%-8.0%0.5x
2025-06—₹259 cr-23.1%-8.0%0.5x
2025-05—₹297 cr-9.3%0.0%0.7x
2025-04—₹297 cr-9.3%0.0%0.7x
2025-03—₹297 cr-9.3%0.0%0.7x
2025-02—₹294 cr-9.7%0.0%0.7x
2025-01—₹294 cr-9.7%0.0%0.7x
2024-12—₹294 cr-9.7%0.0%0.7x
2024-11—₹314 cr-8.9%0.0%0.7x
2024-10—₹314 cr-8.9%0.0%0.7x
2024-09—₹314 cr-8.9%0.0%0.7x
2024-08—₹302 cr-11.6%0.0%0.7x
2024-07—₹302 cr-11.6%0.0%0.7x
2024-06—₹302 cr-11.6%0.0%0.7x
2024-0549.0x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2024-0453.9x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2024-0347.5x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2024-0257.9x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2024-0146.4x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-1244.3x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-1142.2x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-1038.8x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-0927.3x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-0827.9x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-0724.1x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-0619.6x₹322 cr7.7%-5.0%1.1x
2023-05—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2023-04—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2023-03—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2023-02—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2023-01—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-12—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-11—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-10—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-09—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-08—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-07—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-06—₹299 cr-21.5%2.0%2.5x
2022-05—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2022-04—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2022-03—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2022-02—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2022-01—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-12—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-11—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-10—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-09—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-08—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-07—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-06—₹326 cr-26.9%3.0%1.9x
2021-05—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2021-04—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2021-03—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2021-02—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2021-01—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-12—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-11—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-10—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-09—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-08—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-07—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-06—₹298 cr-24.2%4.0%1.5x
2020-05—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2020-04—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2020-03—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2020-02—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2020-01—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-12—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-11—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-10—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-09—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-08—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-07—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-06—₹364 cr-0.6%10.0%1.4x
2019-05—₹398 cr-7.7%6.0%1.3x
2019-04—₹398 cr-7.7%6.0%1.3x
2019-03—₹398 cr-7.7%6.0%1.3x
2019-02—₹398 cr-7.7%6.0%1.3x
2019-01—₹398 cr-7.7%6.0%1.3x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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