अApnaFunda

INTERARCH BUILDING SOLUTIONS L (INTERARCH)

Producer Manufacturing

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.79 / 100
Profitability 58Balance sheet 100
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.31 / 100
Price 23Earnings 52FII/DII 18

Passes these screens: Quality Compounder · Debt-light & profitable · Little growth priced in · Institutions in, retail out

Share Price
₹1460.40
P/E
18.2x
ROCE
24.0%
Market Cap
₹2457 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹1978 cr
P/S
1.2x
P/B
2.8x
ROE
15.3%
Operating Margin
9.0%
Debt / Equity
0.0x
Promoter Holding
59.4%
12M Momentum
-30.6%
P/E vs its own history4th percentilesince Aug '24
P/E vs Producer Manufacturing0.6xthe sector median

52-week range

₹1449.50₹2762.60
1% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
40.4%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.95

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
62.3x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.35x
low
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Was the rally earned?

-31%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 12 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 30.2x to 18.2x), which took 42 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
1 year Net profit growth: +13 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+13 ptsP/E change: -42 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-42 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -31% 1 year Net profit growth: +13 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+13 ptsP/E change: -42 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-42 ptsShare count change: -1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -31%
Net profit growth+13 ptsNet profit rose about 16%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-42 ptsThe P/E fell from 30.2x to 18.2x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-1 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with KAJARIA CERAMICS

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

18.2xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history4th percentileMedian 25.3x; usual range 20.7x to 32.9x since 2024-08.
Against Producer Manufacturing18.2x vs 28.5xBelow the Producer Manufacturing median.
18.2x26.8x35.4x44.0xAug '24Feb '25Aug '25Feb '26Aug '26Oct '2618.2x26.8x35.4x44.0xAug '24May '25Feb '26Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianProducer Manufacturing median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Producer Manufacturing is valued

What is the price implying?

~20%annual earnings growth implied by the priceBelow delivered growth

At normalised P/E (five-year average earnings) of 28.6x, a holder earning 12%/yr needs earnings to grow about 19.5%/yr for 10 years, then trade at 15x.

Delivered42.0%/yrEPS, last 8 fiscal years · 3-yr avg to 3-yr avg
Gap−22.6 ptsimplied minus delivered
Rank775thmost demanding of 843

Over time

Implied growth by month (solid) and delivered growth (dashed).

0%27%53% Jun 2024Oct 2026 0%27%53% Jun 2024Oct 2026

Change the assumptions

Exit P/E / return11%12%13%
12x21.1%22.2%23.3%
15x18.4%19.5%20.5%
20x15.0%16.1%17.1%
Implied: 19.5%/yr

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect. How this is calculated and the market-wide lists.

What prices imply across Producer Manufacturing The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 44% from the Nov 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Oct '26Volume reached 5.4x its 50-day median on 2026-10-13; price -4.0% that day.
  3. Aug '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (21.2x).
  4. May '26Volume reached 15.5x its 50-day median on 2026-05-14; price -12.3% that day.
  5. Feb '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Producer Manufacturing on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  6. Feb '26Volume reached 5.2x its 50-day median on 2026-02-04; price -4.7% that day.
  7. Dec '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Producer Manufacturing on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  8. Nov '25Volume reached 62.4x its 50-day median on 2025-11-07; price +14.9% that day.
Show 7 earlier events
  1. Aug '25Share count is up 21.4% over 12 months.
  2. Jun '25FII + DII holding fell 3.6 pts over 2 quarters to 11.2%.
  3. Jun '25Started paying a dividend (payout 19% of profit).
  4. May '25Regained the 2024-12 peak, 2 months after the low.
  5. May '25Volume reached 15.3x its 50-day median on 2025-05-22; price +13.9% that day.
  6. Mar '25Fell 26% from the Dec 2024 peak to the Mar 2025 low.
  7. Dec '24Volume reached 6.7x its 50-day median on 2024-12-24; price +10.4% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

5 of 7 checks are within range, 1 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance10%Within range

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 9.7%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate25%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 25.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.35xBeyond threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.35x (cash from operations ₹116 cr, net profit ₹329 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow3 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 3. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history+5 daysWithin range

Debtor days are above the median of the previous three fiscal years by 5 days (55 vs 51). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress20% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 20% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-8 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -8 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, DIIs trimmed 3.2 pts; FIIs trimmed 0.7 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 57,076 to 63,547 (+11%) between Sep 2024 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupSep '24Jun '26Change
Promoters59.9%59.4%-0.5 pts
FIIs5.5%4.9%-0.7 pts
DIIs9.3%6.1%-3.2 pts
Public and others25.3%29.6%+4.3 pts

Number of shareholders

63,547shareholders+11% since Sep '24
57k62k66k71k Sep '24Mar '25Sep '25Mar '26Jun '26
Sep '24: 57,076
Dec '24: 65,748
Mar '25: 68,472
Jun '25: 65,679
Sep '25: 66,242
Dec '25: 69,513
Mar '26: 71,121
Jun '26: 63,547
57k62k66k71k Sep '24Jun '25Mar '26Jun '26
Sep '24: 57,076
Dec '24: 65,748
Mar '25: 68,472
Jun '25: 65,679
Sep '25: 66,242
Dec '25: 69,513
Mar '26: 71,121
Jun '26: 63,547

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-44.3%not yet recovered
1-year volatility40.4%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.993-year daily, correlation 0.44
Volume spikes1last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹1,173₹1,577₹1,981₹2,385 Aug '24Feb '25Aug '25Feb '26Aug '26Oct '26
2024-08: ₹1172.50
2024-09: ₹1436.45
2024-10: ₹1756.75
2024-11: ₹1529.40
2024-12: ₹1760.75
2025-01: ₹1637.35
2025-02: ₹1471.40
2025-03: ₹1488.55
2025-04: ₹1591.20
2025-05: ₹2272.40
2025-06: ₹2194.70
2025-07: ₹2190.60
2025-08: ₹2077.20
2025-09: ₹1916.00
2025-10: ₹2103.10
2025-11: ₹2384.80
2025-12: ₹2307.80
2026-01: ₹1969.80
2026-02: ₹1878.50
2026-03: ₹1665.00
2026-04: ₹2088.30
2026-05: ₹1748.00
2026-06: ₹1929.00
2026-07: ₹1808.80
2026-08: ₹1704.50
2026-09: ₹1673.40
2026-10: ₹1460.40
₹1,173₹1,577₹1,981₹2,385 Aug '24May '25Feb '26Oct '26
2024-08: ₹1172.50
2024-09: ₹1436.45
2024-10: ₹1756.75
2024-11: ₹1529.40
2024-12: ₹1760.75
2025-01: ₹1637.35
2025-02: ₹1471.40
2025-03: ₹1488.55
2025-04: ₹1591.20
2025-05: ₹2272.40
2025-06: ₹2194.70
2025-07: ₹2190.60
2025-08: ₹2077.20
2025-09: ₹1916.00
2025-10: ₹2103.10
2025-11: ₹2384.80
2025-12: ₹2307.80
2026-01: ₹1969.80
2026-02: ₹1878.50
2026-03: ₹1665.00
2026-04: ₹2088.30
2026-05: ₹1748.00
2026-06: ₹1929.00
2026-07: ₹1808.80
2026-08: ₹1704.50
2026-09: ₹1673.40
2026-10: ₹1460.40

Last 90 trading days

₹1,460₹1,617₹1,773₹1,929 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹1914.40
2026-06-25: ₹1925.20
2026-06-30: ₹1929.00
2026-07-02: ₹1909.20
2026-07-06: ₹1879.40
2026-07-08: ₹1789.00
2026-07-10: ₹1837.60
2026-07-14: ₹1812.60
2026-07-16: ₹1849.30
2026-07-20: ₹1849.70
2026-07-22: ₹1832.30
2026-07-24: ₹1799.30
2026-07-28: ₹1816.70
2026-07-30: ₹1790.40
2026-08-03: ₹1846.10
2026-08-05: ₹1846.00
2026-08-07: ₹1772.80
2026-08-11: ₹1689.90
2026-08-13: ₹1728.70
2026-08-17: ₹1738.80
2026-08-19: ₹1703.40
2026-08-21: ₹1676.30
2026-08-25: ₹1686.10
2026-08-27: ₹1685.60
2026-08-31: ₹1704.50
2026-09-02: ₹1687.50
2026-09-04: ₹1707.00
2026-09-08: ₹1753.50
2026-09-10: ₹1729.40
2026-09-15: ₹1684.30
2026-09-17: ₹1692.20
2026-09-21: ₹1709.40
2026-09-23: ₹1693.10
2026-09-25: ₹1719.70
2026-09-29: ₹1690.20
2026-10-01: ₹1666.90
2026-10-06: ₹1685.60
2026-10-08: ₹1694.40
2026-10-12: ₹1673.30
2026-10-14: ₹1607.00
2026-10-16: ₹1600.80
2026-10-21: ₹1559.80
2026-10-23: ₹1489.30
2026-10-27: ₹1493.90
2026-10-29: ₹1499.20
2026-10-30: ₹1460.40
₹1,460₹1,617₹1,773₹1,929 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹1914.40
2026-06-25: ₹1925.20
2026-06-30: ₹1929.00
2026-07-02: ₹1909.20
2026-07-06: ₹1879.40
2026-07-08: ₹1789.00
2026-07-10: ₹1837.60
2026-07-14: ₹1812.60
2026-07-16: ₹1849.30
2026-07-20: ₹1849.70
2026-07-22: ₹1832.30
2026-07-24: ₹1799.30
2026-07-28: ₹1816.70
2026-07-30: ₹1790.40
2026-08-03: ₹1846.10
2026-08-05: ₹1846.00
2026-08-07: ₹1772.80
2026-08-11: ₹1689.90
2026-08-13: ₹1728.70
2026-08-17: ₹1738.80
2026-08-19: ₹1703.40
2026-08-21: ₹1676.30
2026-08-25: ₹1686.10
2026-08-27: ₹1685.60
2026-08-31: ₹1704.50
2026-09-02: ₹1687.50
2026-09-04: ₹1707.00
2026-09-08: ₹1753.50
2026-09-10: ₹1729.40
2026-09-15: ₹1684.30
2026-09-17: ₹1692.20
2026-09-21: ₹1709.40
2026-09-23: ₹1693.10
2026-09-25: ₹1719.70
2026-09-29: ₹1690.20
2026-10-01: ₹1666.90
2026-10-06: ₹1685.60
2026-10-08: ₹1694.40
2026-10-12: ₹1673.30
2026-10-14: ₹1607.00
2026-10-16: ₹1600.80
2026-10-21: ₹1559.80
2026-10-23: ₹1489.30
2026-10-27: ₹1493.90
2026-10-29: ₹1499.20
2026-10-30: ₹1460.40

Drawdown from peak

0% -22% -44% Aug '24Sep '25Oct '26 0% -22% -44% Aug '24Sep '25Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-44.3% (2025-11 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-26.1% (2024-12 peak to 2025-03 low, recovered 2025-05)

-21.9% (2025-07 peak to 2025-10 low, recovered 2025-11)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-13: 5.4x the 50-day median, price -4.0% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Producer Manufacturing peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Producer Manufacturing peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Producer Manufacturing sector page Watch it move against Producer Manufacturing in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
D-LINK INDIA (DLINKINDIA)Electronic Technology68%debt/equity, ROCE
STUDDS ACCESSORIES (STUDDS)Consumer Durables64%ROCE, debt/equity
CERA SANITARYWARE (CERA)Consumer Durables62%revenue, ROCE
AHLUWALIA CONTRACTS (INDIA) LT (AHLUCONT)Industrial Services58%debt/equity, P/E
REFEX INDUSTRIES (REFEX)Energy Minerals58%ROCE, market cap
ADOR WELDING (ADOR)Producer Manufacturing72%market cap, ROCE
FIEM INDUSTRIES (FIEMIND)Producer Manufacturing64%P/E, ROCE
DYNAMIC CABLES (DYCL)Producer Manufacturing63%P/E, ROCE

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+2.0%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like INTERARCH BUILDING SOLUTIONS L today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −18% to +14% vs the market, against −1% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+2.5%, 80% range −6.2% to +4.7%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−60%−40%−20%0%+20%+40%+60%+80%
ARE&M · Apr 2021: −43.9% vs market
BSOFT · Sep 2024: −36.5% vs market
DBCORP · Feb 2020: −33.6% vs market
AUTOAXLES · Dec 2023: −29.8% vs market
ATULAUTO · Mar 2020: −28.6% vs market
JTLIND · Jul 2024: −28.6% vs market
IPL · Jun 2023: −27.2% vs market
CERA · Apr 2024: −26.7% vs market
JAMNAAUTO · Dec 2023: −25.9% vs market
BAJAJCON · Jan 2024: −20.2% vs market
KSCL · Feb 2021: −20.1% vs market
NOCIL · May 2023: −19.8% vs market
IONEXCHANG · Aug 2025: −19.0% vs market
RALLIS · Mar 2022: −14.7% vs market
AVANTIFEED · Mar 2022: −13.3% vs market
SKFINDIA · Apr 2025: −11.8% vs market
DHANUKA · Mar 2022: −10.3% vs market
GODFRYPHLP · Oct 2020: −9.5% vs market
ADFFOODS · Dec 2021: −6.7% vs market
VOLTAMP · Sep 2020: −6.1% vs market
COCHINSHIP · May 2020: −4.2% vs market
NGLFINE · Jan 2025: −4.0% vs market
AHLUCONT · Apr 2025: −1.6% vs market
TVTODAY · Jun 2020: −0.7% vs market
PRAJIND · Feb 2024: +1.8% vs market
HONDAPOWER · Jan 2021: +2.1% vs market
GALAXYSURF · Oct 2025: +3.3% vs market
PRINCEPIPE · Sep 2022: +4.1% vs market
CONTROLPR · Nov 2020: +4.3% vs market
STYLAMIND · Feb 2024: +5.4% vs market
LMW · Jan 2024: +5.4% vs market
GOODYEAR · Nov 2021: +5.9% vs market
CENTURYPLY · Apr 2024: +7.7% vs market
INDNIPPON · Mar 2020: +8.2% vs market
SHRIPISTON · Mar 2020: +11.0% vs market
TCI · Feb 2024: +13.1% vs market
ADOR · May 2025: +13.7% vs market
VGUARD · Dec 2021: +13.9% vs market
VEEDOL · Jan 2023: +18.0% vs market
FINCABLES · May 2020: +19.3% vs market
KIRLOSENG · May 2020: +30.1% vs market
GRSE · Apr 2021: +30.8% vs market
BANCOINDIA · Feb 2020: +32.2% vs market
FINPIPE · Aug 2022: +43.9% vs market
KINGFA · Feb 2024: +54.2% vs market
MPSLTD · Apr 2022: +54.9% vs market
KSB · Sep 2020: +55.9% vs market
CYIENT · Mar 2020: +57.1% vs market
ZENSARTECH · Feb 2020: +58.8% vs market
SHARDACROP · Jun 2021: +83.4% vs market
Similar setups +2.0%All companies −0.5%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 1 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+2.0%
All companies' median
−0.5%
Beat the market
52% vs 49%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 31 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
JAMNAAUTO
Producer Manufacturing
Dec 2023 27x28% +7%−11% −26%
GOODYEAR
Consumer Durables
Nov 2021 16x21% +16%−27% +6%
AUTOAXLES
Producer Manufacturing
Dec 2023 20x31% +8%−18% −30%
RALLIS
Process Industries
Mar 2022 25x18% −6%−33% −15%
TVTODAY
Consumer Services
Jun 2020 8x25% −35%−46% −1%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
SKFINDIA
Producer Manufacturing
Apr 2025 16x29% −16%−44% −12%
PRAJIND
Industrial Services
Feb 2024 38x31% +42%−22% +2%
HONDAPOWER
Producer Manufacturing
Jan 2021 15x16% −15%−18% +2%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, P/E and ROCE. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to INTERARCH BUILDING SOLUTIONS L. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (27 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1018.2x₹1978 cr15.3%24.0%0.0x
2026-0920.9x₹1978 cr15.2%24.0%0.0x
2026-0821.2x₹1899 cr15.2%24.0%0.0x
2026-0722.5x₹1899 cr15.2%24.0%0.0x
2026-0624.0x₹1899 cr15.2%24.0%0.0x
2026-0521.4x₹1859 cr18.1%25.0%0.0x
2026-0425.5x₹1859 cr18.1%25.0%0.0x
2026-0320.4x₹1859 cr18.1%25.0%0.0x
2026-0224.6x₹1700 cr16.9%25.0%0.0x
2026-0125.8x₹1700 cr16.9%25.0%0.0x
2025-1230.2x₹1700 cr16.9%25.0%0.0x
2025-1134.2x₹1532 cr15.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-1030.2x₹1532 cr15.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-0927.5x₹1532 cr15.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-0831.2x₹1454 cr14.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-0732.9x₹1454 cr14.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-0632.9x₹1454 cr14.4%25.0%0.0x
2025-0535.5x₹1375 cr22.3%29.0%0.0x
2025-0424.8x₹1375 cr22.3%29.0%0.0x
2025-0323.2x₹1375 cr22.3%29.0%0.0x
2025-0223.6x₹1327 cr20.9%29.0%0.0x
2025-0126.3x₹1327 cr20.9%29.0%0.0x
2024-1228.2x₹1327 cr20.9%29.0%0.0x
2024-1125.3x₹1302 cr19.6%29.0%0.0x
2024-1029.1x₹1302 cr19.6%29.0%0.0x
2024-0923.8x₹1302 cr19.6%29.0%0.0x
2024-0819.8x₹1293 cr19.4%29.0%0.0x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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