अApnaFunda

NTPC GREEN ENERGY LIMITED (NTPCGREEN)

Utilities · Alternative Power Generation · figures to Nov '26

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.42 / 100
Profitability 57Balance sheet 28
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.50 / 100
Price 38Earnings 43FII/DII 67

Share price

Closing priceAdjusted for splits and bonus issues.

₹82.49 latest close · −13.6% over the last 90 sessions

₹80₹85₹90₹95Jul 3Jul 29Aug 24Sep 17Oct 14Nov 9 ₹80₹85₹90₹95Jul 3Sep 4Nov 9

₹82.49 month-end · −13.1% over 12 months

₹80₹90₹100₹110Nov '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26Sep '26Nov '26 ₹80₹90₹100₹110Nov '25May '26Nov '26

₹82.49 month-end · −33.9% since Nov '24

₹80₹100₹120Nov '24Apr '25Sep '25Jan '26Jun '26Nov '26 ₹80₹100₹120Nov '24Nov '25Nov '26

52-week range ₹79.00 to ₹119.95 · 1-year volatility 29.6%

Was the rally earned?

-13%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 5 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 141.7x to 116.2x), which took 18 points back.
  • The share count barely moved.
Net profit growth: +7 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+7 ptsNet profit growthP/E change: −18 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−18 ptsP/E changeShare count change: −1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.−1 ptsShare count changeShare price: −13%−13%Share priceNet profit growth: +7 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+7ProfitP/E change: −18 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.−18P/EShare count change: −1 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price.−1SharesShare price: −13%−13%Share price
Net profit growth+7 ptsNet profit rose about 8%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-18 ptsThe P/E fell from 141.7x to 116.2x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-1 ptsShare count was little changed. More shares would count against the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDI

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-45.4%not yet recovered
1-year volatility29.6%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.743-year daily, correlation 0.49
Volume spikes3last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Drawdown from peak

0%−20%−40%20252026−45.4% 0%−20%−40%2026−45.4%
Largest drawdowns

-45.4% (2024-12 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-09-22: 5.1x the 50-day median, price +2.2% that day

2026-07-24: 5.4x the 50-day median, price -0.9% that day

2026-07-23: 36.1x the 50-day median, price +6.5% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

116.2xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history8th percentile
CheapestMedian 156.6xDearest

Usual range 121.9x to 208.6x since 2024-11.

Against Utilities116.2x vs 27.3x
This company
116.2x
Sector median
27.3x

325% above the Utilities median.

23.4x92.7x162.0x231.3xNov '24Apr '25Sep '25Feb '26Jul '26Nov '2623.4x92.7x162.0x231.3xNov '24Jul '25Mar '26Nov '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

The chart loads when you open this tab.

P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dotted line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Utilities is valued

Where does it rank among Utilities peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Utilities peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

Where it ranks today

  • ROCE18th▼ 5 pts vs a year ago
  • Op. margin96thflat vs a year ago
  • Revenue growth83rd▲ 13 pts vs a year ago
  • EPS growth52nd▼ 11 pts vs a year ago
  • Debt/equity ↓27th▼ 3 pts vs a year ago
  • Cash cycle ↓35th▼ 5 pts vs a year ago
  • P/E ↓13thflat vs a year ago
  • 12M momentum46th▲ 9 pts vs a year ago

Rank history

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Dec '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26Nov '26
Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Utilities sector page Watch it move against Utilities in the Observatory

What is the price implying?

~44%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 186.3x, the price would imply about 44.1%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Utilities The market-wide Expectations lists

Key figures

Share Priceclose 9 Nov
₹82.49
P/E
116.2x
ROCE
4.0%
Market Cap
₹69543 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹3285 cr
P/S
21.2x
P/B
3.7x
ROE
3.2%
Operating Margin
89.0%
Debt / Equity
1.7x
Promoter Holding
89.0%
12M Momentum
-13.1%

52-week range

₹79.00₹119.95
9% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
29.6%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
0.59

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
1.8x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
4.52x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Are profits backed by cash?

4 of 6checks within range1 beyond a threshold
Other income reliance24%Near threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 23.6%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate27%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 26.5%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion4.52xWithin range

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 4.52x (cash from operations ₹6,053 cr, net profit ₹1,338 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow0 of 4 yrsBeyond threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 4: 0. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-30 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 30 days (78 vs 108). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress36% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 36% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Tap a check to see how it is measured

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, FIIs trimmed 0.5 pts.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '24Jun '26Change
Promoters89.0%89.0%0.0 pts
FIIs2.2%1.7%-0.5 pts
DIIs5.3%5.2%-0.1 pts
Public and others3.5%4.1%+0.6 pts

Number of shareholders

12.3 lakhshareholders-4% since Dec '24
12.3L12.9L13.5L14.1L Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '24: 12.8 lakh
Mar '25: 14.1 lakh
Jun '25: 13.9 lakh
Sep '25: 13.6 lakh
Dec '25: 13.3 lakh
Mar '26: 13.0 lakh
Jun '26: 12.3 lakh
12.3L12.9L13.5L14.1L Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '24: 12.8 lakh
Mar '25: 14.1 lakh
Jun '25: 13.9 lakh
Sep '25: 13.6 lakh
Dec '25: 13.3 lakh
Mar '26: 13.0 lakh
Jun '26: 12.3 lakh

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

What happened next to similar setups

−20.1%typical 12-month return vs the marketBelow the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like NTPC GREEN ENERGY LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −30% to +10% vs the market, against −2% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The analogs' median sat below that base rate (gap −17.8%, 80% range −23.4% to −7.8%), but the matches cluster in only 6 distinct 12-month windows.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−60%−40%−20%0%+20%+40%+60%+80%
ADANIGREEN · Apr 2024: −50.7% vs market
TEJASNET · Jul 2024: −50.0% vs market
VIPIND · May 2023: −44.1% vs market
LEMONTREE · Feb 2020: −41.8% vs market
RAMCOCEM · Jul 2023: −36.8% vs market
SJVN · Oct 2025: −35.9% vs market
WESTLIFE · Nov 2023: −34.9% vs market
JBMA · Jul 2024: −33.8% vs market
MHRIL · Oct 2023: −31.8% vs market
SUNTECK · Mar 2022: −31.3% vs market
ZYDUSWELL · Feb 2021: −31.0% vs market
DEVYANI · Apr 2023: −30.3% vs market
AARTIIND · Oct 2021: −30.1% vs market
JUNIPER · Aug 2025: −29.3% vs market
HATSUN · Dec 2021: −29.3% vs market
IMAGICAA · Sep 2024: −29.1% vs market
MAHLIFE · Oct 2023: −27.6% vs market
GODREJPROP · Aug 2024: −27.4% vs market
HINDOILEXP · May 2023: −26.5% vs market
VMART · Jun 2022: −25.9% vs market
ADANIENSOL · Jul 2024: −24.6% vs market
ADANIENT · Jan 2023: −24.0% vs market
BATAINDIA · Sep 2022: −23.9% vs market
JUBLFOOD · Jun 2023: −23.3% vs market
UPL · Feb 2020: −20.6% vs market
SAPPHIRE · Apr 2023: −19.5% vs market
MOTILALOFS · Sep 2020: −19.3% vs market
PROZONER · May 2020: −13.7% vs market
CHALET · Apr 2025: −10.3% vs market
ADANIPORTS · Jun 2022: −8.4% vs market
BIOCON · Sep 2023: −8.1% vs market
BHARATFORG · Feb 2024: −7.9% vs market
NEOGEN · Oct 2023: −2.2% vs market
JSWENERGY · Oct 2025: +0.3% vs market
TITAN · Jan 2022: +1.4% vs market
APOLLOHOSP · Apr 2022: +2.7% vs market
BHARTIARTL · Aug 2022: +7.7% vs market
ULTRACEMCO · Apr 2020: +11.2% vs market
TORNTPHARM · Jan 2020: +13.4% vs market
MAXESTATES · Oct 2025: +14.4% vs market
DLF · Mar 2020: +16.2% vs market
NYKAA · May 2024: +17.8% vs market
DALBHARAT · Dec 2020: +26.8% vs market
ITI · Feb 2020: +29.9% vs market
INDHOTEL · Apr 2024: +34.4% vs market
FORTIS · Aug 2020: +37.4% vs market
PHOENIXLTD · May 2023: +47.2% vs market
LODHA · Dec 2022: +47.8% vs market
VBL · Jun 2021: +62.4% vs market
TRENT · Sep 2023: +150.9% vs market
Similar setups −20.1%All companies −2.3%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 1 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−20.1%
All companies' median
−2.3%
Beat the market
34% vs 47%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 36 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
GODREJPROP
Finance
Aug 2024 112x6% +77%−14% −27%
SJVN
Utilities
Oct 2025 50x5% −22%−28% −36%
DEVYANI
Consumer Services
Apr 2023 124x16% −7%−24% −30%
LEMONTREE
Consumer Services
Feb 2020 77x5% −32%−41% −42%
BATAINDIA
Consumer Non-Durables
Sep 2022 220x8% +2%−18% −24%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
CHALET
Consumer Services
Apr 2025 163x10% −9%−22% −10%
ADANIGREEN
Utilities
Apr 2024 292x8% +89%−9% −51%
JSWENERGY
Utilities
Oct 2025 43x6% −22%−30% 0%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, P/E and drawdown from 12-month high. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to NTPC GREEN ENERGY LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-11-09. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 98,395 company-months from 2019 companies; financial: 5,659 company-months from 108 companies. 2349 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

Industrial Services
47%similar
market capoperating margin
Consumer Services
44%similar
promoter holdingoperating margin
Health Technology
37%similar
debt/equitymarket cap
GMR AIRPORTSGMRAIRPORT
Transportation
36%similar
market capP/E
Finance
36%similar
market capdebt/equity
Utilities
59%similar
promoter holdingdebt/equity
Utilities
49%similar
operating margindebt/equity
JSW ENERGYJSWENERGY
Utilities
46%similar
market capdebt/equity

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What changed?

16 events since Feb '25

  1. NovValuationP/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (116.2x).
  2. OctPriceFell 45% from the Dec 2024 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  3. SepResultsYear-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  4. SepPeer rankMoved into the 2nd quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the 3rd quartile).
  5. JulPriceVolume reached 36.1x its 50-day median on 2026-07-23; price +6.5% that day.
  6. JunResultsYear-on-year EPS growth turned negative.
  7. JunPeer rankSlipped to the 3rd quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the top quartile).
  8. AprPriceVolume reached 19.6x its 50-day median on 2026-04-13; price +7.3% that day.
Show 8 earlier events
  1. MarPeer rankMoved into the top quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  2. MarPriceVolume reached 65.1x its 50-day median on 2026-03-13; price +0.5% that day.
  3. NovDebtDebt / equity halved over 12 months to 1.05x.
  4. NovSharesShare count is up 47.3% over 12 months.
  5. SepPeer rankSlipped to the bottom quartile of Utilities on ROCE (from the 3rd quartile).
  6. JulPriceVolume reached 5.1x its 50-day median on 2025-07-11; price +3.6% that day.
  7. MayPriceVolume reached 13.1x its 50-day median on 2025-05-22; price +5.7% that day.
  8. FebPriceVolume reached 5.4x its 50-day median on 2025-02-24; price -6.8% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Monthly history25 months · 2024-11 to 2026-11
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-11116.2x₹3285 cr3.2%4.0%1.7x
2026-10116.1x₹3285 cr3.2%4.0%1.7x
2026-09131.5x₹3285 cr3.2%4.0%1.7x
2026-08146.7x₹2858 cr2.7%4.0%1.7x
2026-07147.6x₹2858 cr2.7%4.0%1.7x
2026-06156.6x₹2858 cr2.7%4.0%1.7x
2026-05156.8x₹2567 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2026-04166.4x₹2567 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2026-03139.9x₹2567 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2026-02125.2x₹2419 cr3.3%5.0%1.1x
2026-01119.7x₹2419 cr3.3%5.0%1.1x
2025-12131.3x₹2419 cr3.3%5.0%1.1x
2025-11141.7x₹2311 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2025-10153.9x₹2311 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2025-09145.1x₹2311 cr3.0%5.0%1.1x
2025-08158.4x₹2209 cr2.6%5.0%1.1x
2025-07160.4x₹2209 cr2.6%5.0%1.1x
2025-06161.1x₹2209 cr2.6%5.0%1.1x
2025-05218.2x₹2095 cr5.2%8.0%2.2x
2025-04197.2x₹2095 cr5.2%8.0%2.2x
2025-03197.3x₹2095 cr5.2%8.0%2.2x
2025-02158.7x₹2036 cr5.0%8.0%2.2x
2025-01208.9x₹2036 cr5.0%8.0%2.2x
2024-12231.3x₹2036 cr5.0%8.0%2.2x
2024-11208.1x₹1963 cr5.5%8.0%2.2x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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