अApnaFunda

NMDC STEEL LIMITED (NSLNISP)

Non-Energy Minerals · Steel · figures to Nov '26

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.47 / 100
Profitability 35Balance sheet 59
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.60 / 100
Price 40Earnings 66FII/DII 74

Share price

Closing priceAdjusted for splits and bonus issues.

₹40.44 latest close · −9.0% over the last 90 sessions

₹40₹45₹50Jul 3Jul 29Aug 24Sep 17Oct 14Nov 9 ₹40₹45₹50Jul 3Sep 4Nov 9

₹40.44 month-end · −3.4% over 12 months

₹35₹40₹45Nov '25Jan '26Apr '26Jun '26Sep '26Nov '26 ₹35₹40₹45Nov '25May '26Nov '26

₹40.44 month-end · −8.8% over 3 years

₹40₹60Nov '23Jun '24Jan '25Sep '25Apr '26Nov '26 ₹40₹60Nov '23May '25Nov '26

₹40.44 month-end · +21.3% since Feb '23

₹40₹60Feb '23Nov '23Aug '24May '25Feb '26Nov '26 ₹40₹60Feb '23Jan '25Nov '26

52-week range ₹33.01 to ₹53.75 · 1-year volatility 37.8%

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-53.4%not yet recovered
1-year volatility37.8%annualised
Beta vs sector index1.273-year daily, correlation 0.61
Volume spikes4last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Drawdown from peak

0%−20%−40%202420252026−52.9% 0%−20%−40%202420252026−52.9%
Largest drawdowns

-53.4% (2024-02 peak to 2025-04 low, not yet recovered)

-31.8% (2023-09 peak to 2023-11 low, recovered 2024-01)

-20.0% (2023-03 peak to 2023-03 low, recovered 2023-05)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-15: 6.5x the 50-day median, price +0.3% that day

2026-08-28: 18x the 50-day median, price +9.0% that day

2026-08-27: 27.1x the 50-day median, price +8.6% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Non-Energy Minerals peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Non-Energy Minerals peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

Where it ranks today

  • ROCE18th▲ 16 pts vs a year ago
  • Op. margin53rdflat vs a year ago
  • Revenue growth88th▼ 7 pts vs a year ago
  • Debt/equity ↓50th▲ 8 pts vs a year ago
  • Cash cycle ↓95thflat vs a year ago
  • P/E ↓5th
  • 12M momentum61st▲ 8 pts vs a year ago

Rank history

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Dec '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26Nov '26
Lower rank Higher rank Not enough data

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Non-Energy Minerals sector page Watch it move against Non-Energy Minerals in the Observatory

What is the price implying?

~40%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 139.4x, the price would imply about 40.0%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Non-Energy Minerals The market-wide Expectations lists

Key figures

Share Priceclose 9 Nov
₹40.44
P/E
139.4x
ROCE
3.0%
Market Cap
₹11839 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹13939 cr
P/S
0.8x
P/B
0.9x
ROE
0.6%
Operating Margin
11.0%
Debt / Equity
0.4x
Promoter Holding
60.8%
12M Momentum
-3.4%

52-week range

₹33.01₹53.75
36% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
37.8%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
1.09

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
1.2x
Share count, 1Y
unchanged

Are profits backed by cash?

3 of 6checks within range2 beyond a threshold
Other income reliance96%Beyond threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 96.5%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate-28%Beyond threshold

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: -28.0%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history-1 daysWithin range

Debtor days are below the median of the previous three fiscal years by 1 days (5 vs 6). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress3% of fixed assetsWithin range

Capital work-in-progress is 3% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days-36 days / 2 yrsWithin range

Days payable changed by -36 over two years. Bands: rise of up to 30 days; more than 30 days.

Tap a check to see how it is measured

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 3 years, DIIs trimmed 4.4 pts; FIIs added 1.5 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 6.2 lakh to 7.1 lakh (+15%) between Sep 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupSep '23Jun '26Change
Promoters60.8%60.8%0.0 pts
FIIs3.9%5.5%+1.5 pts
DIIs20.2%15.8%-4.4 pts
Public and others15.1%17.9%+2.8 pts

Number of shareholders

7.1 lakhshareholders+15% since Sep '23
6.2L6.8L7.4L8.1L Sep '23Jun '24Mar '25Dec '25Jun '26
Sep '23: 6.2 lakh
Dec '23: 6.2 lakh
Mar '24: 7.3 lakh
Jun '24: 8.1 lakh
Sep '24: 7.9 lakh
Dec '24: 8.0 lakh
Mar '25: 8.0 lakh
Jun '25: 7.8 lakh
Sep '25: 7.6 lakh
Dec '25: 7.4 lakh
Mar '26: 7.2 lakh
Jun '26: 7.1 lakh
6.2L6.8L7.4L8.1L Sep '23Sep '24Sep '25Jun '26
Sep '23: 6.2 lakh
Dec '23: 6.2 lakh
Mar '24: 7.3 lakh
Jun '24: 8.1 lakh
Sep '24: 7.9 lakh
Dec '24: 8.0 lakh
Mar '25: 8.0 lakh
Jun '25: 7.8 lakh
Sep '25: 7.6 lakh
Dec '25: 7.4 lakh
Mar '26: 7.2 lakh
Jun '26: 7.1 lakh

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

What happened next to similar setups

−4.5%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like NMDC STEEL LIMITED today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −24% to +38% vs the market, against −5% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (+0.3%, 80% range −8.4% to +9.9%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−50%0%+50%+100%
STYRENIX · Jul 2021: −44.1% vs market
MEDPLUS · Oct 2023: −39.5% vs market
SAPPHIRE · Jan 2025: −38.3% vs market
SNOWMAN · May 2025: −38.1% vs market
DIAMONDYD · Aug 2023: −37.6% vs market
RAMCOCEM · Jul 2023: −36.8% vs market
MOL · Sep 2025: −30.6% vs market
NUVOCO · Apr 2023: −30.5% vs market
BIRLACORPN · Mar 2024: −28.4% vs market
SHALBY · Aug 2025: −25.7% vs market
GLOBUSSPR · Sep 2025: −25.2% vs market
QUESS · Jun 2021: −25.0% vs market
ASIANTILES · Oct 2025: −23.6% vs market
MAHLOG · Feb 2023: −23.2% vs market
DREDGECORP · Apr 2021: −22.8% vs market
TNPL · Apr 2023: −22.7% vs market
BEML · Feb 2022: −19.6% vs market
SOBHA · Aug 2025: −18.5% vs market
SFL · Oct 2025: −18.0% vs market
IFBIND · Apr 2024: −17.1% vs market
GREENLAM · Sep 2025: −11.5% vs market
MAHEPC · Jun 2024: −11.3% vs market
ATULAUTO · May 2024: −9.8% vs market
SUDARSCHEM · Oct 2025: −8.5% vs market
VMART · Jul 2025: −6.5% vs market
ENTERO · May 2025: −2.6% vs market
KEC · Jul 2023: −1.0% vs market
SAGCEM · Jan 2020: +2.2% vs market
INDIGO · Apr 2020: +3.4% vs market
PPLPHARMA · Sep 2025: +7.4% vs market
STAR · Jun 2020: +13.4% vs market
ABREL · Oct 2022: +15.2% vs market
CEATLTD · Dec 2022: +16.3% vs market
HCG · Aug 2022: +17.3% vs market
JKLAKSHMI · Mar 2020: +22.9% vs market
DALBHARAT · Dec 2020: +26.8% vs market
JPPOWER · Oct 2023: +36.1% vs market
VALIANTORG · Sep 2025: +38.4% vs market
TVSSRICHAK · Sep 2025: +38.9% vs market
APEX · Sep 2025: +47.5% vs market
KIRLOSBROS · Mar 2020: +53.3% vs market
INDIACEM · Jan 2020: +58.6% vs market
JUBLPHARMA · Jun 2024: +60.3% vs market
WELCORP · May 2024: +62.2% vs market
RKFORGE · Apr 2022: +74.9% vs market
HSCL · Jun 2022: +85.3% vs market
AMBER · Mar 2024: +90.3% vs market
BHEL · Aug 2025: +97.6% vs market
THOMASCOOK · Jun 2023: +115.7% vs market
EKC · Sep 2020: +145.9% vs market
Similar setups −4.5%All companies −4.8%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 2 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
−4.5%
All companies' median
−4.8%
Beat the market
46% vs 45%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 31 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
MOL
Process Industries
Sep 2025 108x3% −20%−30% −31%
IFBIND
Consumer Durables
Apr 2024 416x6% +81%−8% −17%
HSCL
Process Industries
Jun 2022 61x5% +5%−28% +85%
BIRLACORPN
Non-Energy Minerals
Mar 2024 271x4% +60%−19% −28%
SUDARSCHEM
Process Industries
Oct 2025 116x6% +10%−25% −9%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
JPPOWER
Utilities
Oct 2023 120x5% +28%−9% +36%
SOBHA
Finance
Aug 2025 161x6% −15%−30% −19%
MEDPLUS
Retail Trade
Oct 2023 190x5% +34%−18% −40%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high and P/E. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to NMDC STEEL LIMITED. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-11-09. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 98,395 company-months from 2019 companies; financial: 5,659 company-months from 108 companies. 2349 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

Transportation
64%similar
P/Epromoter holding
WELSPUN LIVINGWELSPUNLIV
Consumer Non-Durables
60%similar
operating marginrevenue
Producer Manufacturing
59%similar
debt/equityvolatility
Process Industries
59%similar
ROCEpromoter holding
SOBHASOBHA
Finance
59%similar
market capROCE
Non-Energy Minerals
46%similar
volatilityoperating margin
Non-Energy Minerals
42%similar
P/Emarket cap
JINDAL STEELJINDALSTEL
Non-Energy Minerals
40%similar
promoter holdingdebt/equity

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What changed?

22 events since May '23

  1. OctPriceVolume reached 6.5x its 50-day median on 2026-10-15; price +0.3% that day.
  2. SepPeer rankSlipped to the 2nd quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the top quartile).
  3. AugPriceVolume reached 27.1x its 50-day median on 2026-08-27; price +8.6% that day.
  4. JunResultsEPS (TTM) turned positive.
  5. JunPeer rankMoved into the top quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  6. JunPriceVolume reached 25.9x its 50-day median on 2026-06-01; price +13.2% that day.
  7. MarPeer rankSlipped to the bottom quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  8. DecPeer rankSlipped to the 3rd quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
Show 14 earlier events
  1. DecPriceVolume reached 12.4x its 50-day median on 2025-12-31; price +2.3% that day.
  2. SepPeer rankMoved into the 2nd quartile of Non-Energy Minerals on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  3. AugPriceVolume reached 50.0x its 50-day median on 2025-08-13; price +20.0% that day.
  4. JunPriceVolume reached 6.1x its 50-day median on 2025-06-11; price +2.6% that day.
  5. AprPriceFell 53% from the Feb 2024 peak to the Apr 2025 low.
  6. JanPriceVolume reached 10.4x its 50-day median on 2025-01-29; price +8.4% that day.
  7. DecPriceVolume reached 9.1x its 50-day median on 2024-12-03; price +5.4% that day.
  8. JulPriceVolume reached 5.3x its 50-day median on 2024-07-11; price +4.5% that day.
  9. JanPriceRegained the 2023-09 peak, 2 months after the low.
  10. JanPriceVolume reached 12.3x its 50-day median on 2024-01-29; price +14.5% that day.
  11. NovPriceFell 32% from the Sep 2023 peak to the Nov 2023 low.
  12. OctPriceVolume reached 8.3x its 50-day median on 2023-10-20; price -11.9% that day.
  13. AugPriceVolume reached 12.5x its 50-day median on 2023-08-21; price +12.5% that day.
  14. MayPriceVolume reached 6.4x its 50-day median on 2023-05-31; price +8.0% that day.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Monthly history46 months · 2023-02 to 2026-11
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-11139.4x₹13939 cr0.6%3.0%0.4x
2026-10129.9x₹13939 cr0.6%3.0%0.4x
2026-09142.5x₹13939 cr0.6%3.0%0.4x
2026-08220.0x₹13642 cr0.4%3.0%0.4x
2026-07204.9x₹13642 cr0.4%3.0%0.4x
2026-06204.0x₹13642 cr0.4%3.0%0.4x
2026-05—₹12601 cr-6.1%-13.0%0.5x
2026-04—₹12601 cr-6.1%-13.0%0.5x
2026-03—₹12601 cr-6.1%-13.0%0.5x
2026-02—₹11713 cr-10.1%-13.0%0.5x
2026-01—₹11713 cr-10.1%-13.0%0.5x
2025-12—₹11713 cr-10.1%-13.0%0.5x
2025-11—₹9845 cr-13.7%-13.0%0.5x
2025-10—₹9845 cr-13.7%-13.0%0.5x
2025-09—₹9845 cr-13.7%-13.0%0.5x
2025-08—₹8503 cr-18.1%-13.0%0.5x
2025-07—₹8503 cr-18.1%-13.0%0.5x
2025-06—₹8503 cr-18.1%-13.0%0.5x
2025-05—₹7511 cr-17.8%-9.0%0.4x
2025-04—₹7511 cr-17.8%-9.0%0.4x
2025-03—₹7511 cr-17.8%-9.0%0.4x
2025-02—₹6317 cr-16.6%-9.0%0.4x
2025-01—₹6317 cr-16.6%-9.0%0.4x
2024-12—₹6317 cr-16.6%-9.0%0.4x
2024-11—₹5072 cr-13.6%-9.0%0.4x
2024-10—₹5072 cr-13.6%-9.0%0.4x
2024-09—₹5072 cr-13.6%-9.0%0.4x
2024-08—₹3049 cr-10.1%-9.0%0.4x
2024-07—₹3049 cr-10.1%-9.0%0.4x
2024-06—₹3049 cr-10.1%-9.0%0.4x
2024-05—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2024-04—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2024-03—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2024-02—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2024-01—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-12—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-11—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-10—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-09—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-08—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-07—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-06—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.2x
2023-05—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.1x
2023-04—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.1x
2023-03—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.1x
2023-02—₹0 cr0.0%0.0%0.1x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

Feedback