अApnaFunda

INOX GREEN ENERGY SERVICES LTD (INOXGREEN)

Utilities

Quality scoreHow the business itself ranks against its sector peers on profitability, 3-year growth and leverage. 50 is the middle of the sector.52 / 100
Profitability 22Growth 33Balance sheet 100
Momentum scoreHow strong the recent trend is: 3-month price change, 12-month improvement in earnings and the rise in FII + DII holding, among companies above ₹500 cr.48 / 100
Price 1Earnings 63FII/DII 82
Share Price
₹101.82
P/E
32.6x
ROCE
8.0%
Market Cap
₹4264 cr
Revenue (TTM)
₹276 cr
P/S
15.5x
P/B
2.5x
ROE
7.7%
Operating Margin
-2.2%
Debt / Equity
0.1x
Promoter Holding
56.1%
12M Momentum
-61.8%
P/E vs its own history3rd percentilesince Nov '22
P/E vs Utilities1.3xthe sector median

52-week range

₹100.26₹279.00
1% of the way from its 52-week low to its high

Price risk

1Y volatility
49.6%
Beta vs sector
1-year daily
1.19

Balance sheet & cash

Interest cover
operating profit ÷ interest
27.0x
Cash from profit, 3Y
operating cash flow ÷ net profit
0.78x
Share count, 1Y
+9.3%

Was the rally earned?

-62%share price, 1 yearLower P/E held it back

Earnings helped, the multiple did not.

  • Per-share earnings added 71 points, but investors now pay less per rupee of profit (P/E 256.3x to 32.6x), which took 132 points back.
  • The share count rose 4%.
1 year Net profit growth: +73 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+73 ptsP/E change: -132 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-132 ptsShare count change: -3 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -62% 1 year Net profit growth: +73 pts. Points of the price return explained by net profit growing (or shrinking).+73 ptsP/E change: -132 pts. Points of the price return explained by the market paying a higher or lower P/E multiple.-132 ptsShare count change: -3 pts. Points of the price return explained by the share count changing. More shares count against the price. -62%
Net profit growth+73 ptsNet profit rose about 213%, which lifts the price.
P/E change-132 ptsThe P/E fell from 256.3x to 32.6x, which lowers the price.
Share count change-3 ptsShare count rose 4%, which lowers the price.
What do "pts" mean?

"pts" are percentage points of the share price return. The parts add up to the total shown for each period. Because price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count, higher profit pushes the price up, a higher P/E pushes it up, and more shares push it down.

Example: if the price rose 34% and profit growth accounts for +58 pts while a lower P/E accounts for -24 pts, then 58 - 24 = 34. The +58 is not the profit growth rate itself: it is the part of the price move that profit growth explains.

Not shown for 3 years and 5 years: earnings were negative at one end, or there is not enough history.

Net profit is trailing twelve months as reported with a 60-day lag.

Compare this with POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDI

Is it expensive against its own past and its peers?

32.6xP/E todayNear its historic low
Against its own history3rd percentileMedian 146.8x; usual range 62.4x to 256.5x since 2022-11.
Against Utilities32.6x vs 25.5xAbove the Utilities median.
14.3x106.1x197.8x289.6xNov '22Sep '23Jul '24May '25Mar '26Oct '2614.3x106.1x197.8x289.6xNov '22Mar '24Jul '25Oct '26
P/E (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

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P/B (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median

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P/S (this company)10th to 90th percentile of its own historyIts medianUtilities median
How to read this

Shaded band: 10th to 90th percentile of the company's own P/E history; dashed line: its median; orange line: sector median (companies with a positive multiple, at least 5 in the sector).

Sector figures are built from today's listed companies, so they exclude companies that are no longer listed.

All terms explained in the glossary →

How Utilities is valued

What is the price implying?

~59%annual earnings growth implied by the price

At a P/E of 497.7x, the price would imply about 59.0%/yr earnings growth for 10 years under the same assumptions, but it is not ranked.

Fewer than six years of annual earnings are available, which is too little to measure delivered growth.

“Implied growth” is what the current price would require under our stated assumptions, not what we expect.

What prices imply across Utilities The market-wide Expectations lists

What changed?

  1. Oct '26Fell 63% from the Nov 2025 peak to the Oct 2026 low.
  2. Oct '26Volume reached 68.0x its 50-day median on 2026-10-09; price +12.0% that day.
  3. Jul '26Share count is up 9.3% over 12 months.
  4. Jun '26P/E fell below the 10th percentile of its own history to date (73.3x).
  5. Jun '26Moved into the 3rd quartile of Utilities on ROCE (from the bottom quartile).
  6. Apr '26Volume reached 5.5x its 50-day median on 2026-04-21; price +7.4% that day.
  7. Mar '26Moved into the 2nd quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the 3rd quartile).
  8. Mar '26Volume reached 72.4x its 50-day median on 2026-03-20; price +7.2% that day.
Show 22 earlier events
  1. Dec '25Revenue (TTM) reached a new high of ₹268 cr.
  2. Dec '25Moved into the top quartile of Utilities on EPS growth (from the 2nd quartile).
  3. Oct '25Regained the 2024-09 peak, 6 months after the low.
  4. Oct '25Volume reached 11.1x its 50-day median on 2025-10-08; price +1.6% that day.
  5. Sep '25Year-on-year EPS growth turned positive.
  6. Sep '25FII + DII holding fell 4.1 pts over 1 quarter to 8.5%.
  7. Sep '25Moved into the 3rd quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the bottom quartile).
  8. Sep '25Volume reached 11.4x its 50-day median on 2025-09-22; price +2.9% that day.
  9. Jun '25Slipped to the bottom quartile of Utilities on operating margin (from the 2nd quartile).
  10. Jun '25Share count is up 24.8% over 12 months.
  11. May '25Volume reached 11.1x its 50-day median on 2025-05-20; price +12.7% that day.
  12. Apr '25Fell 53% from the Sep 2024 peak to the Apr 2025 low.
  13. Jan '25Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.13x.
  14. Dec '24Volume reached 9.6x its 50-day median on 2024-12-02; price +15.6% that day.
  15. Aug '24Volume reached 9.0x its 50-day median on 2024-08-12; price +11.7% that day.
  16. Jun '24EPS (TTM) turned positive.
  17. Jun '24Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.13x.
  18. Jun '24Volume reached 11.1x its 50-day median on 2024-06-26; price +5.1% that day.
  19. Jan '24Volume reached 8.2x its 50-day median on 2024-01-04; price +6.2% that day.
  20. Dec '23Volume reached 23.0x its 50-day median on 2023-12-12; price +17.9% that day.
  21. Nov '23Debt / equity halved over 12 months to 0.53x.
  22. Nov '23Share count is up 24.3% over 12 months.

Events are generated from the data by fixed rules.
The month shown is when the change became visible in the reported figures, assuming a 60-day lag after each quarter end; it is not an announcement date.

Where price and fundamentals disagree, market-wide Rewind the whole market to any month

Are profits backed by cash?

2 of 6 checks are within range, 3 near a threshold, 1 beyond a threshold.
Tap a check to see how it is measured.

Other income reliance98%Beyond threshold

Other income as a share of pre-tax profit (trailing twelve months): 97.8%. Bands: below 15%, 15% to 35%, above 35%.

Tax rate35%Within range

Median quarterly effective tax rate over about 2.5 years: 34.5%. Bands: 15% to 35%, 5% to 15% or 35% to 50%, outside 5% to 50%.

Cash conversion0.78xNear threshold

Operating cash flow divided by net profit over the last three fiscal years: 0.78x (cash from operations ₹119 cr, net profit ₹153 cr). Bands: 0.8x and above, 0.5x to 0.8x, below 0.5x.

Free cash flow2 of 5 yrsNear threshold

Fiscal years with positive free cash flow in the last 5: 2. Bands: at least 80% of years, 40% to 80%, below 40%.

Receivable days vs history+3 daysWithin range

Debtor days are above the median of the previous three fiscal years by 3 days (216 vs 213). Bands: under 15 days, 15 to 45, over 45.

Capital work in progress40% of fixed assetsNear threshold

Capital work-in-progress is 40% of fixed assets. Bands: not rising or up to 30%; rising for three years and above 30%; rising and above 60%.

Payable days—Not enough data

Not enough reported data to compute this.

How to read this

Each check is a named rule with fixed thresholds, not a score. Annual statements are the latest restated figures, so a past year may differ from what was originally reported.

All terms explained in the glossary →

Who has been buying and selling?

  • Over 2 years, FIIs trimmed 1.3 pts; DIIs trimmed 1.0 pts.
  • The number of shareholders rose from 93,830 to 1.1 lakh (+22%) between Dec 2023 and Jun 2026.

Holdings, Jun '26

How each group changed

GroupDec '23Jun '26Change
Promoters55.7%56.1%+0.4 pts
FIIs9.2%7.9%-1.3 pts
DIIs2.8%1.9%-1.0 pts
Public and others32.2%34.2%+1.9 pts

Number of shareholders

1.1 lakhshareholders+22% since Dec '23
94k1.1L1.3L1.5L Dec '23Jun '24Dec '24Jun '25Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 93,830
Mar '24: 1.1 lakh
Jun '24: 1.2 lakh
Sep '24: 1.4 lakh
Dec '24: 1.5 lakh
Mar '25: 1.5 lakh
Jun '25: 1.5 lakh
Sep '25: 1.3 lakh
Dec '25: 1.2 lakh
Mar '26: 1.2 lakh
Jun '26: 1.1 lakh
94k1.1L1.3L1.5L Dec '23Dec '24Dec '25Jun '26
Dec '23: 93,830
Mar '24: 1.1 lakh
Jun '24: 1.2 lakh
Sep '24: 1.4 lakh
Dec '24: 1.5 lakh
Mar '25: 1.5 lakh
Jun '25: 1.5 lakh
Sep '25: 1.3 lakh
Dec '25: 1.2 lakh
Mar '26: 1.2 lakh
Jun '26: 1.1 lakh

Quarterly shareholding as reported, labelled by the quarter it covers (it becomes visible about two months later).
Shareholder counts are only available for recent quarters.

This quarter's smart-money board

How rough has the ride been?

Maximum drawdown-62.6%not yet recovered
1-year volatility49.6%annualised
Beta vs sector index0.973-year daily, correlation 0.44
Volume spikes5last 90 sessions, 5x the 50-day median

Monthly share price

₹39₹115₹191₹267 Nov '22Sep '23Jul '24May '25Mar '26Oct '26
2022-11: ₹60.75
2022-12: ₹47.85
2023-01: ₹48.15
2023-02: ₹42.30
2023-03: ₹39.35
2023-04: ₹43.05
2023-05: ₹48.80
2023-06: ₹58.60
2023-07: ₹73.00
2023-08: ₹68.55
2023-09: ₹64.00
2023-10: ₹63.00
2023-11: ₹68.30
2023-12: ₹105.10
2024-01: ₹133.00
2024-02: ₹134.30
2024-03: ₹118.55
2024-04: ₹144.50
2024-05: ₹132.70
2024-06: ₹177.24
2024-07: ₹177.81
2024-08: ₹199.71
2024-09: ₹208.03
2024-10: ₹173.98
2024-11: ₹148.29
2024-12: ₹176.81
2025-01: ₹160.25
2025-02: ₹120.53
2025-03: ₹118.95
2025-04: ₹139.35
2025-05: ₹183.52
2025-06: ₹155.08
2025-07: ₹165.07
2025-08: ₹146.79
2025-09: ₹201.11
2025-10: ₹266.53
2025-11: ₹218.50
2025-12: ₹210.35
2026-01: ₹169.95
2026-02: ₹169.12
2026-03: ₹135.96
2026-04: ₹180.73
2026-05: ₹172.41
2026-06: ₹198.60
2026-07: ₹169.89
2026-08: ₹166.87
2026-09: ₹161.07
2026-10: ₹101.82
₹39₹115₹191₹267 Nov '22Mar '24Jul '25Oct '26
2022-11: ₹60.75
2022-12: ₹47.85
2023-01: ₹48.15
2023-02: ₹42.30
2023-03: ₹39.35
2023-04: ₹43.05
2023-05: ₹48.80
2023-06: ₹58.60
2023-07: ₹73.00
2023-08: ₹68.55
2023-09: ₹64.00
2023-10: ₹63.00
2023-11: ₹68.30
2023-12: ₹105.10
2024-01: ₹133.00
2024-02: ₹134.30
2024-03: ₹118.55
2024-04: ₹144.50
2024-05: ₹132.70
2024-06: ₹177.24
2024-07: ₹177.81
2024-08: ₹199.71
2024-09: ₹208.03
2024-10: ₹173.98
2024-11: ₹148.29
2024-12: ₹176.81
2025-01: ₹160.25
2025-02: ₹120.53
2025-03: ₹118.95
2025-04: ₹139.35
2025-05: ₹183.52
2025-06: ₹155.08
2025-07: ₹165.07
2025-08: ₹146.79
2025-09: ₹201.11
2025-10: ₹266.53
2025-11: ₹218.50
2025-12: ₹210.35
2026-01: ₹169.95
2026-02: ₹169.12
2026-03: ₹135.96
2026-04: ₹180.73
2026-05: ₹172.41
2026-06: ₹198.60
2026-07: ₹169.89
2026-08: ₹166.87
2026-09: ₹161.07
2026-10: ₹101.82

Last 90 trading days

₹102₹137₹172₹207 Jun 23Jul 20Aug 13Sep 8Oct 6Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹199.11
2026-06-25: ₹204.15
2026-06-30: ₹198.60
2026-07-02: ₹200.02
2026-07-06: ₹206.68
2026-07-08: ₹195.84
2026-07-10: ₹191.66
2026-07-14: ₹185.95
2026-07-16: ₹190.49
2026-07-20: ₹195.33
2026-07-22: ₹193.49
2026-07-24: ₹191.87
2026-07-28: ₹194.68
2026-07-30: ₹175.25
2026-08-03: ₹174.32
2026-08-05: ₹178.28
2026-08-07: ₹179.43
2026-08-11: ₹184.41
2026-08-13: ₹186.96
2026-08-17: ₹181.54
2026-08-19: ₹175.89
2026-08-21: ₹178.34
2026-08-25: ₹173.51
2026-08-27: ₹172.18
2026-08-31: ₹166.87
2026-09-02: ₹164.25
2026-09-04: ₹175.10
2026-09-08: ₹174.42
2026-09-10: ₹178.12
2026-09-15: ₹173.22
2026-09-17: ₹174.64
2026-09-21: ₹172.34
2026-09-23: ₹174.81
2026-09-25: ₹172.32
2026-09-29: ₹163.96
2026-10-01: ₹159.00
2026-10-06: ₹146.59
2026-10-08: ₹115.08
2026-10-12: ₹120.65
2026-10-14: ₹124.39
2026-10-16: ₹118.69
2026-10-21: ₹114.82
2026-10-23: ₹111.36
2026-10-27: ₹109.39
2026-10-29: ₹106.77
2026-10-30: ₹101.82
₹102₹137₹172₹207 Jun 23Aug 5Sep 17Oct 30
2026-06-23: ₹199.11
2026-06-25: ₹204.15
2026-06-30: ₹198.60
2026-07-02: ₹200.02
2026-07-06: ₹206.68
2026-07-08: ₹195.84
2026-07-10: ₹191.66
2026-07-14: ₹185.95
2026-07-16: ₹190.49
2026-07-20: ₹195.33
2026-07-22: ₹193.49
2026-07-24: ₹191.87
2026-07-28: ₹194.68
2026-07-30: ₹175.25
2026-08-03: ₹174.32
2026-08-05: ₹178.28
2026-08-07: ₹179.43
2026-08-11: ₹184.41
2026-08-13: ₹186.96
2026-08-17: ₹181.54
2026-08-19: ₹175.89
2026-08-21: ₹178.34
2026-08-25: ₹173.51
2026-08-27: ₹172.18
2026-08-31: ₹166.87
2026-09-02: ₹164.25
2026-09-04: ₹175.10
2026-09-08: ₹174.42
2026-09-10: ₹178.12
2026-09-15: ₹173.22
2026-09-17: ₹174.64
2026-09-21: ₹172.34
2026-09-23: ₹174.81
2026-09-25: ₹172.32
2026-09-29: ₹163.96
2026-10-01: ₹159.00
2026-10-06: ₹146.59
2026-10-08: ₹115.08
2026-10-12: ₹120.65
2026-10-14: ₹124.39
2026-10-16: ₹118.69
2026-10-21: ₹114.82
2026-10-23: ₹111.36
2026-10-27: ₹109.39
2026-10-29: ₹106.77
2026-10-30: ₹101.82

Drawdown from peak

0% -31% -63% Nov '22Nov '24Oct '26 0% -31% -63% Nov '22Nov '24Oct '26
Largest drawdowns

-62.6% (2025-11 peak to 2026-10 low, not yet recovered)

-52.6% (2024-09 peak to 2025-04 low, recovered 2025-10)

-37.9% (2022-11 peak to 2023-04 low, recovered 2023-07)

Most recent volume spikes

2026-10-13: 5x the 50-day median, price +2.1% that day

2026-10-12: 14x the 50-day median, price -6.4% that day

2026-10-09: 68x the 50-day median, price +12.0% that day

Beta is the slope of daily returns against a market-cap-weighted index of the sector's other listed companies, built from today's constituents (so it excludes companies no longer listed).

Where does it rank among Utilities peers?

Each cell is the company's percentile rank among its Utilities peers (non-financial companies) that month.
Darker is better-ranked.
Rows marked ↓ are inverted (lower debt, shorter cash cycle and a lower P/E rank higher).

ROCE
Op. margin
Revenue growth
EPS growth
Debt/equity ↓
Cash cycle ↓
P/E ↓
12M momentum
Nov '21Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Oct '26
Lower rank Higher rank

Percentiles use today's listed companies in the sector and need at least 5 peers with a value; grey cells have too few.
ROE is computed from net profit and book value where the source does not report it.

The Utilities sector page Watch it move against Utilities in the Observatory

What else looks like this?

Companies with the most similar financial profile today, regardless of industry.

CompanySectorSimilarityClosest on
63 MOONS TECHNOLOGIES (63MOONS)Technology Services58%market cap, revenue growth
APCOTEX INDUSTRIES (APCOTEXIND)Process Industries53%revenue, promoter holding
EASY TRIP PLANNERS (EASEMYTRIP)Consumer Services53%debt/equity, operating margin
BANNARI AMMAN SUGARS (BANARISUG)Process Industries51%operating margin, P/E
KIRI INDUSTRIES (KIRIINDUS)Process Industries50%market cap, revenue growth
TEXMACO INFRA & HOLDINGS (TEXINFRA)Utilities41%operating margin, revenue growth
BAJEL PROJECTS (BAJEL)Utilities10%operating margin, ROCE
GUJARAT INDUSTRIES POWER CO L (GIPCL)Utilities10%promoter holding, revenue growth

Similarity is statistical, based on reported metrics; it does not imply similar business quality or future returns.

What happened next to similar setups

+2.4%typical 12-month return vs the marketNot meaningfully different from the base rate
  • We found 50 past situations where a non-financial company looked like INOX GREEN ENERGY SERVICES LTD today on valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, price momentum, size and volatility.
  • Over the following 12 months the middle half of them returned −21% to +18% vs the market, against +3% for all non-financial companies in the same months.
  • The gap against the base rate (−0.3%, 80% range −8.7% to +8.1%) is within what chance and overlapping periods produce.

Where the 50 outcomes landed

−100%−50%0%+50%+100%
MEDICAMEQ · Aug 2023: −61.6% vs market
QUICKHEAL · Mar 2025: −55.1% vs market
ENIL · Jan 2020: −50.8% vs market
SHIVALIK · Aug 2023: −50.0% vs market
DEN · May 2021: −36.2% vs market
OAL · Aug 2022: −31.8% vs market
NATCOPHARM · Oct 2021: −29.9% vs market
SHILPAMED · Jun 2021: −27.8% vs market
EIHOTEL · Aug 2020: −26.6% vs market
DIVGIITTS · May 2024: −25.8% vs market
NAUKRI · Jan 2022: −24.6% vs market
MIDHANI · Feb 2021: −22.0% vs market
BORORENEW · Oct 2023: −21.4% vs market
NIITLTD · Sep 2025: −18.6% vs market
IDEAFORGE · Oct 2024: −17.9% vs market
INVENTURE · Jan 2023: −12.0% vs market
APCOTEXIND · Jun 2024: −10.2% vs market
SUBEXLTD · Apr 2022: −7.8% vs market
SYMPHONY · Jul 2021: −7.2% vs market
WONDERLA · Sep 2020: −6.7% vs market
GKWLIMITED · Feb 2021: −5.5% vs market
AETHER · Apr 2024: −5.0% vs market
JUSTDIAL · May 2022: −3.4% vs market
PARAS · Oct 2022: −1.3% vs market
ROUTE · Sep 2022: +0.2% vs market
SUNTECK · May 2020: +4.5% vs market
ITDC · Oct 2020: +5.7% vs market
JSWHL · May 2022: +9.6% vs market
ADVENZYMES · Aug 2022: +11.4% vs market
MCX · Feb 2022: +11.7% vs market
SHALBY · May 2022: +12.5% vs market
OBEROIRLTY · Aug 2020: +13.4% vs market
CONCOR · Dec 2020: +14.1% vs market
LATENTVIEW · Nov 2022: +14.8% vs market
ANURAS · Jan 2023: +15.0% vs market
MAHSCOOTER · May 2020: +16.5% vs market
CARTRADE · Jul 2023: +17.3% vs market
NAZARA · Nov 2022: +18.2% vs market
SONACOMS · Dec 2022: +20.9% vs market
MTARTECH · Nov 2022: +23.4% vs market
SAREGAMA · Jan 2024: +26.3% vs market
INDIAMART · Aug 2022: +26.8% vs market
SEAMECLTD · Feb 2023: +27.0% vs market
GENESYS · Jun 2023: +29.1% vs market
ORCHPHARMA · Oct 2025: +30.4% vs market
DELTACORP · Nov 2020: +35.0% vs market
MAPMYINDIA · Dec 2022: +47.1% vs market
GREAVESCOT · Jan 2021: +78.4% vs market
OLECTRA · Jun 2020: +88.5% vs market
APTECHT · Nov 2020: +112.2% vs market
Similar setups +2.4%All companies +2.7%← worse than the marketbetter than the market →

Each dot is one past situation (hover or tap for details) · Solid dots are the closest matches, listed below · Shaded is the middle half of all companies in the same months · 1 beyond the range shown, drawn at the edge

Similar setups' median
+2.4%
All companies' median
+2.7%
Beat the market
52% vs 53%

50 past situations · 50 companies · 37 months · 2020–2025

The closest matches

CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
LATENTVIEW
Commercial Services
Nov 2022 58x17% −43%−46% +15%
MEDICAMEQ
Health Technology
Aug 2023 62x10% −38%−39% −62%
WONDERLA
Consumer Services
Sep 2020 14x8% −43%−46% −7%
DIVGIITTS
Producer Manufacturing
May 2024 43x15% −15%−37% −26%
NAZARA
Technology Services
Nov 2022 135x7% −47%−55% +18%
Show the other 3 matches
CompanyWhenP/EROCE12M mom.DrawdownNext 12 months
EIHOTEL
Consumer Services
Aug 2020 37x6% −46%−52% −27%
CARTRADE
Technology Services
Jul 2023 69x3% −28%−30% +17%
ORCHPHARMA
Health Technology
Oct 2025 57x9% −50%−63% +30%
How reliable is this?

Matched on P/E, P/S, ROCE, operating margin, debt/equity, interest cover, revenue growth, 12-month momentum, drawdown from 12-month high, size and volatility. Closest on: 12-month momentum, size and P/E. One match per company and at most 7 from any one month.

Independent periods: the matches fall in 6 distinct 12-month windows. Matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, so fewer windows means less evidence.

How this is built

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to INOX GREEN ENERGY SERVICES LTD. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.

Methodology

How historical analogs are built

Data as of 2026-10-30. Outcome pool: Jan 2020 to Oct 2025.

For every company we look at the situation it is in today (valuation, return on capital, margins, debt, growth, 12-month price momentum, drawdown, size and volatility) and find past company-months that looked most like it. We then show what happened to those past situations over the following 12 months, measured against the ApnaFunda All index and against the base rate. It describes history. It does not predict anything.

What is compared

FeatureWeightNon-financialFinancial
P/E1yesyes
P/S1yes—
P/B1—yes
ROCE1yes—
operating margin1yes—
ROE1—yes
debt/equity0.75yes—
interest cover0.5yes—
revenue growth0.75yesyes
12-month momentum1yesyes
drawdown from 12-month high0.75yesyes
size0.75yesyes
volatility0.5yesyes

Weights were set by judgement before any outcome was looked at and are never tuned on results. Loss-making companies (negative P/E or net profit) are only matched with other loss-making companies. Banks, NBFCs and insurers are compared only with each other and use a different feature set. Every feature is converted, month by month, to its rank among companies in the same pool in that month, so a P/E of 30 in a hot market and a P/E of 22 in a cold one can match if both were equally expensive for their time. Only that month's data is used.

How closeness and the sample are defined

Distance is the weighted root-mean-square gap between the standardised features both companies have. A match needs at least 70% of the query's feature weight, a distance of at most 0.9, and 30 matches at minimum to be shown. We keep up to 50 matches with these exclusions: never the company itself, one match per company (its closest month), and at most 7 from any one calendar month so a single market episode cannot dominate.

Base rate

The base rate is the distribution of 12-month returns, relative to the market, of every eligible company-month in the same pool, with each month weighted to match the months the analogs came from. It answers: how did a random company do in these same months? Because matches from nearby months share the same market conditions, we also report the number of distinct 12-month windows behind a result, and a bootstrap that resamples months decides whether the analog median differs from the base rate at all. "Not meaningfully different" is the usual outcome and the page copy is written for it.

Limits you should know

  • One market period. The outcome pool covers 2020–2025 only (70 months), including the 2020 crash and the 2020–21 rally.
  • Survivorship. Only companies listed today are included. Delisted and bankrupt companies are missing, which flatters past outcomes, particularly for distressed-looking setups.
  • Price return only. Dividends are excluded, and the benchmark is an ApnaFunda market-cap-weighted index of the same listed companies, not an official index.
  • Reporting lag. Fundamentals are matched on an assumed 60-day lag after the quarter end, not on real announcement dates.
  • Pools: non-financial: 97,430 company-months from 2000 companies; financial: 5,632 company-months from 106 companies. 2240 companies currently have a result; the rest are suppressed because too few comparable situations exist.

Does it work? A walk-forward check

The walk-forward check has not been run for this build, so skill is shown as not yet measured.

Disclaimer

This is history, not a forecast. These are past situations where other companies had broadly similar reported numbers and price trends. What happened to them does not tell you what will happen to any company shown. The comparison covers only 2020–2025, a single market period, and only companies still listed today. Companies that were delisted or went bankrupt are missing, which makes past outcomes look better than they were. Returns exclude dividends and are measured against an ApnaFunda-built index, not an official benchmark. Fundamentals are matched on a 60-day assumed reporting lag, not actual announcement dates. Its historical skill has not yet been measured. Past patterns may not repeat.
Monthly history (48 months)
MonthP/ERevenue (TTM)ROEROCEDebt / Equity
2026-1032.6x₹276 cr7.7%8.0%0.1x
2026-0951.6x₹276 cr7.7%8.0%0.1x
2026-0861.6x₹289 cr6.5%8.0%0.1x
2026-0762.7x₹289 cr6.5%8.0%0.1x
2026-0673.3x₹289 cr6.5%8.0%0.1x
2026-0579.5x₹285 cr4.4%3.0%0.1x
2026-0483.3x₹285 cr4.4%3.0%0.1x
2026-0362.7x₹285 cr4.4%3.0%0.1x
2026-02104.4x₹268 cr3.3%3.0%0.1x
2026-01104.9x₹268 cr3.3%3.0%0.1x
2025-12129.8x₹268 cr3.3%3.0%0.1x
2025-11210.1x₹237 cr2.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-10256.3x₹237 cr2.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-09193.4x₹237 cr2.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-08257.5x₹232 cr1.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-07289.6x₹232 cr1.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-06272.1x₹232 cr1.1%3.0%0.1x
2025-05159.6x₹219 cr2.9%4.0%0.1x
2025-04121.2x₹219 cr2.9%4.0%0.1x
2025-03103.4x₹219 cr2.9%4.0%0.1x
2025-02121.7x₹218 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2025-01161.9x₹218 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2024-12178.6x₹218 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2024-11146.8x₹210 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2024-10172.3x₹210 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2024-09206.0x₹210 cr2.4%4.0%0.1x
2024-08208.0x₹216 cr2.3%4.0%0.1x
2024-07185.2x₹216 cr2.3%4.0%0.1x
2024-06184.6x₹216 cr2.3%4.0%0.1x
2024-05—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2024-04—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2024-03—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2024-02—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2024-01—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-12—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-11—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-10—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-09—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-08—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-07—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-06—₹254 cr-1.9%1.0%0.5x
2023-05—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2023-04—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2023-03—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2023-02—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2023-01—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2022-12—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x
2022-11—₹172 cr-12.3%3.0%1.1x

Methodology and data notes

Methodology

Methodology and data notes

All figures come from public exchange prices and screener.in financial statements. Quarterly and annual results are shown from 60 days after the period end, so a month never uses a result before it would plausibly have been published. Statements are the latest versions, which may include later restatements.

Sector medians, percentiles and indices use today's listed companies in the sector (survivorship bias). Prices are adjusted for splits and bonus issues; around a corporate action the fundamentals may lag the price by up to a month, and affected sections are hidden.

The return decomposition uses price = P/E × net profit ÷ share count. The reverse DCF uses a fixed 12% cost of equity, a 10-year horizon and a 15x terminal P/E, and is an illustration only. Events, flags and twins follow fixed rules and thresholds described next to each section.

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