अFunda Observatory

Energy Minerals: implied vs delivered earnings growth

14 ranked companies · Oct 2026 · prices as of 9 Oct 2026

Discount rate 12% · 10-year horizon · exit P/E 15x · dividends at each company's own payout

In Energy Minerals, the median price implies 9.3%/yr earnings growth against 10.1%/yr delivered over the past decade, a gap of −6.0 pts, higher than 0 of 17 other sectors. Treated as one company (aggregate market cap over aggregate profit), the sector's price implies 11.0%/yr.

These figures are a mechanical translation of each company's current price-to-earnings ratio into the earnings growth that would be consistent with it, under fixed assumptions we chose (12% annual return, 10 years, exit P/E 15x). They are not forecasts, price targets or recommendations, and change materially with the assumptions. Delivered growth is historical and does not predict future results. ApnaFunda is not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment adviser. Data may contain errors; verify with company filings before relying on it.

0%0%10%10%20%20%30%30%40%40%50%50%60%60% Delivered growth, per year → Implied growth → RELIANCE · delivered 2.9% · implied 22.3%MRPL · delivered −1.5% · implied 10.8%HINDOILEXP · delivered 6.2% · implied 15.7%CASTROLIND · delivered 3.5% · implied 11.2%COALINDIA · delivered 6.1% · implied 7.5%GULFOILLUB · delivered 12.2% · implied 10.4%OIL · delivered 13.8% · implied 8.3%IOC · delivered 6.9% · implied 0.2%ONGC · delivered 7.9% · implied 0.9%HINDPETRO · delivered 12.4% · implied 4.3%IRMENERGY · delivered 23.6% · implied 10.8%BPCL · delivered 15.4% · implied 2.4%CHENNPETRO · delivered 19.3% · implied 5.3%REFEX · delivered 37.8% · implied 17.5%RELIANCEMRPLHINDOILEXPCASTROLINDCOALINDIAHINDPETROIRMENERGYBPCLCHENNPETROREFEX −30 pts0+50 pts

Most demanding in Energy Minerals

  1. #1RELIANCE INDUSTRIES RELIANCE · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 38.7x · ₹15,83,782 cr
    price implies 22.3%/yr · delivered 2.9%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +19.4 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  2. #2MANGALORE REFINERY & PETROCHEM MRPL · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 13.5x · ₹30,169 cr
    price implies 10.8%/yr · delivered −1.5%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +12.3 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  3. #3HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION CO HINDOILEXP · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 20.7x · ₹2,242 cr
    price implies 15.7%/yr · delivered 6.2%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +9.5 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · over half of profit is other income
  4. #4CASTROL INDIA LIMITED CASTROLIND · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 21.7x · ₹19,268 cr
    price implies 11.2%/yr · delivered 3.5%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +7.7 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · pays out over half of earnings
  5. #5COAL INDIA LIMITED COALINDIA · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 16.3x · ₹2,53,543 cr
    price implies 7.5%/yr · delivered 6.1%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +1.3 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · pays out over half of earnings · over half of profit is other income
  6. #6GULF OIL LUBRICANTS INDIA LTD GULFOILLUB · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 18.2x · ₹5,326 cr
    price implies 10.4%/yr · delivered 12.2%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −1.9 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · pays out over half of earnings
  7. #7OIL INDIA LIMITED OIL · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 13.4x · ₹72,130 cr
    price implies 8.3%/yr · delivered 13.8%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −5.4 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  8. #8INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED IOC · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 7.3x · ₹1,78,325 cr
    price implies 0.2%/yr · delivered 6.9%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −6.7 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  9. #9OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIO ONGC · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 7.4x · ₹2,78,358 cr
    price implies 0.9%/yr · delivered 7.9%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −7.0 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  10. #10HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP HINDPETRO · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 9.5x · ₹69,322 cr
    price implies 4.3%/yr · delivered 12.4%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −8.1 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used

Lowest expectations in Energy Minerals

  1. #14REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED REFEX · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 24.7x · ₹3,448 cr
    price implies 17.5%/yr · delivered 37.8%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −20.3 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · trailing P/E far below normalised
  2. #13CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORPORATION CHENNPETRO · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 10.2x · ₹22,157 cr
    price implies 5.3%/yr · delivered 19.3%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −14.0 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · trailing P/E far below normalised
  3. #12BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPN LTD BPCL · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 8.2x · ₹1,24,839 cr
    price implies 2.4%/yr · delivered 15.4%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −13.0 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  4. #11IRM ENERGY LIMITED IRMENERGY · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 14.2x · ₹1,037 cr
    price implies 10.8%/yr · delivered 23.6%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −12.8 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  5. #10HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP HINDPETRO · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 9.5x · ₹69,322 cr
    price implies 4.3%/yr · delivered 12.4%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −8.1 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  6. #9OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATIO ONGC · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 7.4x · ₹2,78,358 cr
    price implies 0.9%/yr · delivered 7.9%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −7.0 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  7. #8INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED IOC · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 7.3x · ₹1,78,325 cr
    price implies 0.2%/yr · delivered 6.9%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −6.7 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  8. #7OIL INDIA LIMITED OIL · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 13.4x · ₹72,130 cr
    price implies 8.3%/yr · delivered 13.8%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −5.4 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used
  9. #6GULF OIL LUBRICANTS INDIA LTD GULFOILLUB · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 18.2x · ₹5,326 cr
    price implies 10.4%/yr · delivered 12.2%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap −1.9 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · pays out over half of earnings
  10. #5COAL INDIA LIMITED COALINDIA · Energy Minerals · normalised P/E 16.3x · ₹2,53,543 cr
    price implies 7.5%/yr · delivered 6.1%/yr (avg-to-avg) · gap +1.3 pts
    cyclical: normalised earnings used · pays out over half of earnings · over half of profit is other income

Energy Minerals sector fundamentals → · All sectors

How this works

An investor buys at today's trailing P/E, receives dividends equal to a fixed share of earnings for 10 years, then sells at an exit P/E of 15x. We solve for the constant annual earnings-per-share growth that makes that sequence worth exactly today's price at a 12% required return: P/E = payout × Σ xᵗ + exit P/E × xᴺ, with x = (1 + growth) / (1 + required return). With no dividends it reduces to growth = (1 + r) × (P/E ÷ exit P/E)^(1/N) − 1. Each company uses its own median payout over its last five fiscal years (zero if unknown).

Delivered growth is the fitted annual growth of net profit per share over the last up to ten fiscal years known at the time (a 60-day reporting lag is applied), or a first-three-versus-last-three-years average where earnings are cyclical or a loss year interrupts the series. Cyclical companies are valued on their five-year average earnings rather than trailing ones. The gap is implied growth minus delivered growth, in percentage points.

Sensitivity at a P/E of 40x and a 30% payout (exit P/E down, required return across):

Exit P/E / return11%12%13%
12x23.3%24.4%25.5%
15x20.8%21.9%23.0%
20x17.7%18.7%19.8%

Because a change in the required return or exit multiple moves every company's implied growth by nearly the same amount, the ranking is stable under the assumptions; only the levels move. The curve is also concave: doubling a P/E from 40x to 80x adds only about seven points of implied growth, so a 200x P/E does not mean ten times the growth. There is no consensus forecast in this data, so the comparison is with history only. Sector indices and "sector as one company" use today's constituents and are survivorship-biased.